The FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey and the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas in release NFL advance look-ahead lines, and Week 13 follows the Thanksgiving week games. All three favorites won and covered Thanksgiving Day, and those results will impact the Week 13 lines once they are released following the completion of Sunday’s games on Nov. 25.
The NFL has backloaded the second half of the regular season schedule with more meaningful division games, and those division duels will have much of the betting action while determining which teams reach the playoffs and playoff positioning and seeding.
Adjusting to market moves
Despite at least a 3-point move from the Week 12 lookahead lines to the current lines on both the Saints and Cowboys, those two teams still covered the point spread in Thanksgiving Day wins. We continue to see some of the big adjustments in the betting lines based on the previous week’s results, and more favorites have continued to cover over the past month. Don’t expect that to continue into December despite many teams being eliminated from the playoffs while taking more points as underdogs.
With many bettors and the public following the market moves and adjustments and cashing in, the Week 12 games and market moves below should be popular plays despite some of the lessons learned from the contrary nature and often surprising results in the NFL. The sportsbooks can count on many bettors continuing to ride the hot teams and bet on the winning teams while fading the losing teams the rest of the season.
A correction is likely in order.
Week 12 look-ahead lines and major moves
Many bettors react more to recent results and are often unwilling to bet on bad teams. Those teams will take fewer bets and less betting action in Week 12: Bills (+3.5), Raiders (+10.5), 49ers (+3), Giants (+5.5), Browns (+3), NY Jets (+10.5) and Cardinals (+13). Jets QB Sam Darnold has been ruled out, which only has more bettors laying double-digits on the road with New England.
For the Week 12 games on Sunday, Nov. 25, these are the games where there was at least a two-point difference from the look-ahead line in Las Vegas or New Jersey and current line:
- New England at NY Jets (NE -7, FanDuel) – Current line Patriots -10.5
- Miami at Indianapolis (IND -5.5, FanDuel) – Current line Colts -8
- Arizona at LA Chargers (LAC -10.5, FanDuel) – Current line Chargers -13
- NY Giants at Philadelphia (PHI -9.5, SuperBook) – Current line Eagles -5.5
- Tennessee at Houston (HOU -3, FanDuel) – Current line Texans -6
The major adjustments and market moves are against the losing teams again except for the Giants, as the Eagles’ continued struggles have finally seen an adjustment against them. The sportsbooks understand the need to adjust with most bettors unwilling to bet on the losing teams. Value will be available the rest of the year on many underdogs, and even the worst teams.
Scoring is at a record high 48.4 points per game this season, and a large majority of bets were on the OVER record posted total of 64 points last Monday night between the Chiefs and Rams. No issue, as those two teams obliterated the total in an offensive explosion with the Rams winning 54-51 in the third highest scoring game in NFL history. The sportsbooks got buried. Don’t feel sorry, but expect some continued adjustments upward in totals like the Saints vs. Falcons (60) game on Thanksgiving Day which New Orleans won 31-17. Multiple Falcons turnovers deep in Saints territory curbed scoring, and that one did not work out as well for most bettors who continue to bet over the total.
NFL Week 13 look-ahead betting lines
The Saints continue their surge with 10-straight wins including a 9-0 ATS run as they travel to Dallas on Thursday to kickoff Week 13. New Orleans has a regular week of rest having played on Thursday in their win over Atlanta.
The Week 13 NFL look ahead lines show six division games with some key games of interest impacting playoff positioning and teams pushing for the playoffs with Minnesota at New England highlighting the late afternoon games while the LA Chargers at Pittsburgh is the marquee match-up in early action.
|Game||Westgate Line||FanDuel Line|
|New Orleans at Dallas (Thurs)||NO -7.5||NO -7|
|Indianapolis at Jacksonville||IND -2.5||JAX -1.5|
|LA Chargers at Pittsburgh||PIT -4.5||PIT -3|
|Carolina at Tampa Bay||CAR -4.5||CAR -1.5|
|Baltimore at Atlanta||OFF||ATL -1.5|
|Cleveland at Houston||HOU -7||HOU -7|
|Buffalo at Miami||OFF||MIA -6|
|Chicago at NY Giants||CHI -4.5||CHI -3|
|Denver at Cincinnati||CIN -2.5||CIN -2.5|
|LA Rams at Detroit||LAR -7||LAR -8|
|Arizona at Green Bay||GB -11.5||GB -11.5|
|Kansas City at Oakland||KC -14||KC -14|
|NY Jets at Tennessee||OFF||TEN -5.5|
|Minnesota at New England||NE -6||NE -4.5|
|San Francisco at Seattle||SEA -7.5||SEA -7.5|
|Washington at Philadelphia (Mon)||PHI -6.5||PHI -7|