NFL Week 13 Implied Team Totals: Dolphins Face Tough Test

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on November 30, 2022
Week 13 implied team totals

Each week during the NFL season, TheLines will compile a list of implied team totals. In other words, NFL Week 13 implied team totals are how many points each team is expected to score this week, based on simple math with the spread and over/under.

Readers can make use of these team totals in a variety of ways for NFL Week 13 and beyond. Those ways include handicapping props, making fantasy decisions, etc.

All lines come from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Nov. 30, rounded to the nearest whole number.

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NFL Week 13 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalOpponentH/ASpreadTotal
Chiefs27BengalsAway-1.553
Cowboys27ColtsHome-1143.5
Browns27TexansAway-747
Chargers26RaidersAway-1.550.5
Jaguars26LionsAway-151.5
Eagles25TitansAway5.544.5
49ers25DolphinsHome-446.5
Bengals25ChiefsHome1.553
Lions25JaguarsHome151.5
Raiders25ChargersHome1.550.5
Bills24PatriotsAway-443.5
Seahawks24RamsAway-7.541
Ravens24BroncosHome-8.538.5
Vikings24JetsHome-344.5
Packers24BearsAway-4.543.5
Commanders22GiantsAway-2.540.5
Buccaneers22SaintsHome-440.5
Falcons22SteelersHome-142
Dolphins2149ersAway446.5
Jets21VikingsAway344.5
Steelers21FalconsAway142
Titans20EaglesAway5.544.5
Patriots20BillsHome443.5
Bears20PackersHome4.543.5
Texans20BrownsHome747
Giants19CommandersHome2.540.5
Saints18BuccaneersAway440.5
Rams17SeahawksHome7.541
Colts16CowboysAway1143.5
Broncos15RavensAway8.538.5

Highest NFL Week 13 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalDraftKings Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Chiefs2726.5-120+100
Cowboys2727.5-105-115
Browns2727.5+100-120
Chargers2625.5-115-105
Jaguars2626.5-105-115

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys offense appears in high-flying form right now. In the five games since Dak Prescott retook the controls from Cooper Rush, they’ve averaged 33.8 points per game. That’s better than the Chiefs‘ league-leading mark for the season.

However, if one looks closer, one can see this has been a comically easy stretch of opposing defenses. Here’s each opponent they faced during that time, along with that opponent’s defense DVOA rank.

That’s playing offense on easy mode. The Colts may not be world beaters, but they are solid on that end, certainly a step above the Cowboys’ recent competition. Bringing pressure without blitzing has been a strong suit as they have a top-10 mark in adjusted sack rate, so this should be a better test of Prescott’s ability to beat playoff-caliber defenses.

Cleveland Browns

Naturally, we have to highlight the Cleveland Browns‘ appearance here. They find themselves in a fascinating spot.

On the one hand, opponents don’t get much easier than the Texans. Don’t be fooled by the Dolphins landing on “just” 30 last weekend. They probably could have scored 50 if they felt like it, but Mike McDaniel opted to pull his starters very early. Backup Skylar Thompson began a procession of three-and-outs and they never scored again.

On the other hand, what will Deshaun Watson look like when he hasn’t played professional football in almost two years? Yes, he was operating at an elite level. But, keep in mind, Jacoby Brissett has been damn good for the Browns. He ranks 10th in EPA+CPOE composite.

Can Watson really elevate the team much better than that, especially early? Then again, maybe this line is more a reflection of the Texans than anything Watson brings to the table over Brissett.

Lowest NFL Week 13 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalDraftKings Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Broncos1514.5-105-115
Colts1615.5-115-105
Rams1716.5-105-115
Saints1817.5-105-115
Giants1919.5-115-105

LA Rams

The maiden voyage of the Bryce Perkins show — sans top two WRs Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson — did not go well against the Chiefs. Perkins managed just 82 net passing yards on 3 YPA dropping back. He seemed all too eager to break pocket and try to gain yards with his feet only to find NFL linebackers tracking him down much, much more quickly than those he faced in his days at Virginia.

The wreckage of this offense is striking. Players who weren’t even on the radar in the preseason are getting significant snaps at basically every position except tight end.

Now, for the good news. The Seahawks defense is a bit more inviting than that of the Chiefs. They blitz less often and cause less overall pressure than the Chiefs, and the conditions will improve playing indoors at home rather than outside in the Midwest winter.

Expectations would seem to have hit rock bottom for this Rams bunch.

New York Giants

Speaking of offenses ravaged by injury, the Giants have been hit as hard as anyone. The offensive line could be missing as many as three starters, and the receiving corps bears little resemblance to the group the team hoped to run out at the start of the season.

The 20 points the team scored on Dallas oversells their ability to generate points. They caught a couple of breaks with short fields in that game, and the final touchdown came in garbage time with the game well in hand.

The team’s style of play bodes ill for this matchup with the Commanders. Washington has been rolling defensively and rates particularly well defending the run. They rank top-five in both EPA/play allowed and Success Rate. Only four teams run the ball more frequently than the G-Men.

Other Notable Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalDraftKings Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Bills2423.5-115-105
Dolphins2120.5-115-105

Buffalo Bills

Expectations have become considerably more muted for a Bills offense that was torching the opposition for the first few weeks of the season. It seemed every week, market expectation sat around 30 points for this group. But now twice in three weeks, we’ve seen numbers in the mid-20s, albeit once due to weather concerns.

This time, it appears we’re looking at a combination of market respect for the Patriots — still atop the EPA/play rankings — and skepticism about Josh Allen since his elbow injury against the Jets.

In truth, that may be warranted. Allen has been scattershot as far as protecting the ball in the ensuing weeks. And the Bills offense ranks just 12th in EPA/play in that time, which is especially concerning given they’ve faced three weak defenses in that time frame. Small sample caveats apply, though.

Miami Dolphins

Buffalo’s fellow AFC East title hopefuls the Dolphins have had it even easier of late. They scored at least 30 in each of their last four. But, how much credit do they deserve when the toughest defensive test came in the form of Cleveland?

EPA/play data shows Tua Tagovailoa as the most productive QB in the league. Few if any could have predicted that result, even if they were optimistic about the arrival of Mike McDaniel.

Well, the market has not bought in just yet. The 49ers bring a nasty defense, one that will finally put this unit to a real test. A low 20s score for Miami would be quite a fall indeed considering their high-flying ways for much of the season.

An injury to LT Terron Armstead looms large. Recent rumblings have him aiming to return this week, but that seems a bit insane since he just tore a muscle in his chest and was expected to miss several weeks. If he can go and be effective, he would make a huge difference in containing ace pass rusher Nick Bosa.

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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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