NFL Week 13 Implied Team Totals: Market Expects Rams To Fix Things

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on November 30, 2021

Each week during the NFL season, TheLines will compile a list of implied team totals. In other words, NFL Week 13 implied team totals are how many points each team is expected to score this week, based on simple math with the spread and over/under.

Readers can make use of these team totals in a variety of ways for NFL Week 13 and beyond. Those ways include handicapping props, making fantasy decisions, etc.

All lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of Nov. 30, rounded to the nearest whole number.

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NFL Week 13 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalOpponentLocationSpreadOver/Under
Raiders26Football TeamHome-2.549.5
Football Team24RaidersAway2.549.5

Highest NFL Week 13 implied team totals

TeamImplied Team TotalFanDuel Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price

LA Rams

The Rams may have scored 28 in Week 12 against the Packers, but in reality they had yet another poor day. That number was aided by a freebie garbage field goal and they had three more turnovers in what has become more than a fluke or run of bad luck.

Matt Stafford has not looked good in several weeks. Dating back to even Week 7, which includes the last few Rams wins, he ranks 13th in EPA/play. The offense as a whole ranks a shocking 20th. That’s simply unacceptable for a team with this level of talent and supposed offensive coaching acumen.

Stafford says he’s playing through several injuries and given his history of toughness and his drop in play, that seems likely true. Credit to him for that, but when we handicap these spots, it’s difficult to trust a hobbled QB to lead his team to 30 points even against a putrid team like the Jaguars.

Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs fans will hope Andy Reid works his legendary bye week magic here as the Chiefs continue to clean up their early season mistakes.

He didn’t have to do much against the Cowboys because the defense pitched what passes for a shutout in 2021 against a good offense, but Patrick Mahomes has looked much more comfortable and confident in the pocket the past two games.

The Broncos make for an interesting opponent here because of the way their defense is set up and has played. Vic Fangio is at his best scheming and slowing down high-volume passing offenses. He showed that when they completely shut down the Cowboys and did good work against the Chargers this past week. Also at this point, they’ve lost so much talent up front to injuries and trades while the back end remains stocked.

In other words, they profile pretty well for stopping what the Chiefs do best. But, teams like the Browns and Eagles with strong offensive lines have bulldozed this hobbled front. The Chiefs line has really picked it up of late and they could have success on the ground. But if they do, might that still churn the clock and push this under?

Indianapolis Colts

The good and the bad of the Colts showed up this weekend against Tampa Bay.

They outplayed the Bucs and moved the ball consistently, even on the ground against an elite run defense. However, they turned the ball over five times to resign themselves to a close loss.

Frank Reich has this offense humming for the most part. They have scored 30+ in six of their last seven, which has coincided with the offensive line getting healthy and a greater emphasis on handing off to Jonathan Taylor.

The metrics give the Texans defense mixed reviews, with DVOA liking them a lot more than EPA. They do rank just 24th in adjusted line yards, though, a bad sign against this Colts ground game.

Lowest NFL Week 13 implied team totals

TeamImplied Team TotalFanDuel Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price

Chicago Bears

Andy Dalton took over at QB for the Bears and he looked much more smooth and consistent driving the ball. The 16 points they scored hide the fact he went for 7.8 YPA against the Lions.

How much of that was Dalton and how much was playing the Lions? It’s difficult to say for sure, but the evidence to this point says Dalton is probably a better option right now for this offense than Justin Fields. Unfortunately, we don’t yet know whether he’ll draw another start as Matt Nagy declined to give an update on Fields’ injury on Monday.

The market seems pretty down on their chances to get the offense rolling this week. Despite the game line indicating they should push toward 20 points against the Cardinals, the market has juiced under 17.5. A QB decision might push the value either way on this one so keep tabs on this.

New York Giants

The Giants are another team that has dealt with a slew of injuries for more than a month on offense. Bereft of weapons and playing behind an awful offensive line, Daniel Jones has failed to keep up his solid play from early in the season.

That same line has rendered them completely incapable of running the ball. So, the rare occasions they get a lead make it hard to hold.

They squeaked by the Eagles behind a ton of opposing turnovers but don’t let that stop you from seeing this offense for the terrible group it’s been.

The Miami defense has been on fire since Week 8, ranking second in EPA/play allowed. If the Giants don’t get Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard back, they’re probably going to struggle again. Their ugly protections match up poorly against the Dolphins’ blitz-heavy scheme.

Houston Texans

Last week here, we sounded the alarm about just how poorly the Texans have played on offense, juxtaposed with a high (by their standards) team total. Sure enough, they fell well short of the number even with hitting a pretty long TD to Brandin Cooks.

The market has put them back at the bottom of the barrel, and rightfully so. They can’t move the ball at all. Even the pathetic Jets held them to 3.7 YPP.

The Colts like to play zone and have some speed at LB with Darius Leonard, which should limit Tyrod Taylor’s ability to do big damage scrambling. He’s going to have to beat them passing, and given the Colts just reduced Tom Brady to a checkdown-heavy 6 YPA, Taylor has his work cut out for him.

Other Notable Implied Team Totals

New England Patriots

Seeing the Patriots at an implied total of 20 might shock you. In fact, it probably should. The last time they failed to hit this number was way back in the days of yore, Week 4 against Tampa. We didn’t yet know Mac Jones was a solid QB and the Patriots were a potential Super Bowl contender.

Since then, the Pats have average 33 points per game.

Now, the Bills still rate as the league’s best defense by the advanced metrics. But, those numbers likely overrated them as they’ve played a pathetic schedule of opposing offenses. The three offenses with a pulse they played (Chiefs, Titans, Colts) averaged 31 points.

Keep an eye on the weather, though. Current forecasts call for 15 mph winds and potentially some snow.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints have already announced they plan to start Taysom Hill at QB.

How exactly what will affect the offense in terms of bottom-line performance is anyone’s guess. What we do know from last year is Hill probably won’t embarrass himself, and he can pilot the offense against lesser defenses without too much trouble. He has shown a penchant for taking too many sacks (10.4% sack rate last year) and being unable to connect accurately on deep passes.

The team will probably have to focus on the ground game. The good news is Dallas has shown a weak point stopping opposing rushers. The Chiefs line trucked them as they continue to struggle with injuries. They rank 18th in rush defense DVOA.

If the Saints get their backs and their tackles back, they can definitely surpass this number on an indoor track.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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