NFL Week 12 Betting Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts

Written By Evan Scrimshaw on November 27, 2022
colts steelers spread

Week 12 finds itself wrapping up in Indianapolis this week, where Monday Night Football odds feature the 3-7 Pittsburgh Steelers on the road to play the 4-6-1 Indianapolis Colts. The Steelers Colts spread features Indianapolis as spread favorites with Pittsburgh to win the game on the moneyline. The total is .

With Jeff Saturday’s first two games a marked improvement on the Colts play, and the Steelers still trying to find their way with Kenny Pickett, this game has all the makings of a close battle.

Steelers Colts Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

This Steelers Colts spread table effectively shows all the legal sportsbook MNF odds for each of the three main markets – spreads, totals, and moneylines – so that bettors can know what they’re getting is the best price. Just use the dropdown menu to toggle between the type of bet you want, and then make sure you’re getting the best price when you bet.

If you’re looking at spreads, getting an extra half point on either side can make or break the difference, and getting the best side of a total points market can be crucial as well. When it comes to Moneyline betting, you always want to get the best number possible – all three things that the easy comparison points of the odds table allow.

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Steelers vs. Colts Player Props

The props tool enables bettors to effectively track Steelers Colts odds across sportsbooks for every player prop, to make sure that bettors aren’t missing out on a better total, or a better value, on a player prop.

Whether it’s getting a total you want to bet an Over on 5 yards lower, or a line where you have to pay less juice, the Props tool enables bettors to make sure they’re not missing out on the best available SNF odds.

Steelers vs. Colts Betting News & Angles

Colts Vs. Steelers Weather

Lucas Oil Stadium has a retractable roof, but the weather forecast for Indianapolis on Monday is dry (broken clouds) and calm (5 mph winds), with a high temperature of 43 degrees Fahrenheit (as of 10:27 AM on November 25).

Colts Vs. Steelers Injury Report

Indianapolis Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Ryan KellyCShoulderQuestionable63.5
Parris CampbellWRIllnessQuestionable58.9
Matt PryorOTIllnessProbable57.7
Grover StewartDTShoulderQuestionable52.5
DeForest BucknerDTRibsQuestionable51.4
Kylen GransonTEIllnessQuestionable42.1
Kwity PayeDEAnkleQuestionable41.9
Jelani WoodsTEShoulderProbable19.6

Pittsburgh Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Ahkello WitherspoonCBHamstringQuestionable65.3
Jaylen WarrenRBHamstringQuestionable28.7
Miles BoykinWRObliqueQuestionable18.9

Colts Offense Vs. Steelers Defense

Colts OffenseStats (Rank)Steelers Defense
15.7 (31)Points/Gm24.4 (26)
0.2 (31)Points/Play0.4 (18)
321.4 (24)Yards/Gm375.5 (28)
222.6 (17)Pass Yards/Gm272.1 (32)
98.7 (26)Rush Yards/Gm103.4 (7)
4.9 (27)Yards/Play5.8 (22)
6.0 (27)Yards/Pass7.5 (30)
4.1 (25)Yards/Rush3.9 (3)
36.9% (25)3rd Down %41.0% (20)
43.3% (30)Red Zone %54.8% (15)
19 (31)Turnovers14 (9)
40 (31)Sacks19 (25)

Steelers Offense Vs. Colts Defense

Steelers OffenseStats (Rank)Colts Defense
17.0 (28)Points/Gm20.0 (11)
0.3 (18)Points/Play0.3 (1)
312.0 (27)Yards/Gm307.6 (5)
204.2 (23)Pass Yards/Gm194.2 (7)
107.8 (22)Rush Yards/Gm113.5 (11)
4.8 (29)Yards/Play5.0 (7)
5.6 (31)Yards/Pass6.5 (11)
4.2 (20)Yards/Rush3.8 (2)
37.6% (23)3rd Down %34.3% (6)
48.4% (26)Red Zone %58.6% (20)
14 (22)Turnovers11 (21)
29 (24)Sacks28 (12)

Steelers vs. Colts Betting Insights

Reasons The Steelers Can Cover The Spread

The Steelers offense was more efficient in the first half against Cincinnati than would have been expected, a decent sign that Kenny Pickett can be at least serviceable. The last two weeks, Pickett is 14th in the league in EPA/play, a sign that the rookie pivot is finding something.

The return of TJ Watt is also huge for the Steelers, who now have one of the best defensive players back in the lineup which will allow them to get more pressure without having to send a blitz.

Why The Colts can cover the spread

The Indianapolis Defense is a lot better than their record would suggest – top half of the league by both DVOA and PFF and top 10 in both metrics against the rush. If they can replicate this performance on Sunday, then the Steelers will struggle to keep on schedule.

While it’s probably too much to say that Matt Ryan has been good since getting his starting job back, he has been better – 17th in the league in EPA/play in the last two weeks. The Colts have shown an ability to win football games with league average Quarterback play the last few years – if they can get that this week, they should cover easily.

Reasons to bet the over

The Steelers are good for a defensive touchdown and lots of turnovers created, especially with Watt back, and a short field and/or defensive points helps speed games up and increases the total points. That, or Matt Ryan finding some of his old Atlanta rhythm, might be the only way this goes over.

Reasons to bet the under

Both of these offenses are still unreliable, and trusting them to put up any meaningful number of points is still slightly insane. Yes, both Quarterbacks have been better, but nobody should be crowning them as good in any way just because of two weeks of mediocre play.

Steelers vs. Colts Props: Matchups To Watch For

Najee Harris Rushing Yards: The Colts defense has been one of the rare highlights of the season, but last week the Eagles were able to move the ball at will on the final drive on the ground. If the Steelers are going to have a chance, getting Pickett out of 3rd and long will be key, and whether or not the Eagles game was a one off will tell us a ton about the Colts’ chances.

Final Thoughts

For the Colts to be laying less than a field goal is an odd line, and one that fundamentally comes down to whether or not the Colts are a good team who played below their level in the first 9 weeks of the season, or whether they’re a bad team that is currently playing slightly above their level.

If they’re a bad team getting a new coach bump, then the Steelers make a lot of sense. Ryan has been incredibly turnover happy so far this season, and if Watt can get into the backfield and wreak havoc, then this could get very difficult for Indy.

That said, if the Colts are just playing at their level – which is certainly closer to the level the preseason oddsmakers had them pegged for and last season’s performance suggested was possible – then they will cover easily, and the lack of a full field goal is a gift.

The thing is, as much as the Colts have been bad at times this season, trusting Kenny Pickett to win this game or keep it within 2 is a bridge too far, especially if the Colts can get competence out of Matt Ryan – which, so far in his return, they have.

Best of luck betting the Steelers Colts spread.

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