The Recency Report: NFL Week 11 Market Moves And Week 12 Look-Ahead Lines

Posted By FairwayJay on November 14, 2019
nfl look-ahead lines week 12

Every week, TheLines turns to FanDuel Sportsbook for opening look-ahead lines for next week’s NFL games. These advance lines are posted every Thursday, a full week before the ensuing week’s games on the schedule.

In this article, we also take a look at the current lines compared to the opening lines at FanDuel from the previous week.

How to use look-ahead lines

We’ll be providing the NFL advance lines from FanDuel Sportsbook each week to allow you a sneak peek at the projected lines for the following week’s games. This advance information from a big bookmaker provides lessons in understanding lines and projections before the current week’s games are played.

The tendency for many bettors is to over-react to the previous week’s scores and results. The look-ahead lines provide a sense of stability from the linemaker, who is unbiased in setting the lines in advance without the information from the current week’s contests.

Bettors can also gain an edge or find value in the lines once the current week’s lines are released. They do this based on not only a potential overreaction to the recent week’s results, but by using information they have on teams, including NFL power rankings. Making adjustments is part of the process, along with formulating an opinion and whether they are a believer in some teams or not in others. This can be based on personnel, injuries, situations, stats or angles they want to apply as the season progresses.

Week 11 market movement

GameOpenCurrent
Pittsburgh at ClevelandCLE -3CLE -2.5
Dallas at DetroitDAL -2.5DAL -3.5
Tampa Bay at New OrleansNO -4.5NO -5
Atlanta at CarolinaCAR -7CAR -5.5
Jacksonville at IndianapolisIND -3.5IND -3
Denver at MinnesotaMIN -9.5MIN -10.5
NY Jets at WashingtonWASH -1.5WASH -1
Buffalo at MiamiNLBUF -5.5
Houston at BaltimoreBAL -4.5BAL -4.5
Arizona at San FranciscoSF -14SF -11.5
New England at PhiladelphiaNE -3NE -3.5
Cincinnati at OaklandOAK -7.5OAK -10.5
Chicago at LA RamsLAR -7.5LAR -6.5
Kansas City at LA Chargers (Mexico City)KC -3.5KC -4

There were some major market moves from last week’s look ahead lines:

  • The Raiders moved upward from -7.5 to -10.5 following their Thursday home win over the Chargers. The winless Bengals (0-9) suffered a beatdown by Baltimore in a 49-13 rout. Bettors are not going to put their money on the bungling Bengals again, and despite the big line, Oakland (5-4) was taking more than 80% of the handle early in the week at DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Following the 49ers’ (8-1) first loss of the season Monday night, San Francisco is now an 11.5-point favorite over the Cardinals (3-6) in a AFC West matchup. The look-ahead line was San Francisco -14. The Cardinals were taking the majority of bets early in the week as bettors have seemingly flipped on the 49ers.

The line moves are minimal in the Steelers at Browns and Patriots at Eagles games, but those two games will be among the biggest bet in Week 11. The early spread bets favor the Steelers (+3). William Hill notes the Thursday night feature has more balanced action slightly favoring the Steelers. Director of trading Nick Bogdanovich reports that William Hill will “definitely need the Eagles” against the Patriots, who are a 3.5 point road favorite.

Here’s a look at some of the storylines and betting situations that have impacted (or could impact) the Week 11 NFL card:

  • Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford was a late scratch last week with fractured bones in his back, and he’s not practicing this week. Jeff Driskel is in line to make his second straight start against the Cowboys. Bettors believe Dallas will bounce back big after last week’s prime time loss to the Vikings, as Dallas is taking a week-high 95% of the bets at FanDuel Sportsbook and 94% of the spread bets at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday morning.
  • Indianapolis Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett is expected to start Sunday in a key AFC South showdown with the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-5). Nick Foles returns from a shoulder injury to make his first start since week 1 for Jacksonville, and the Jaguars are a 3-point underdog. The Colts (5-4) play back-to-back home games following an embarrassing 16-12 loss to the Dolphins last week with Brissett sidelined (knee). The Colts trail the Texans (6-3) by one game in the AFC South as Houston plays at AFC North-leading Baltimore (7-2) this week. The Colts and Texans have a key AFC South showdown next Thursday in Houston and the Texans are a 5.5-point favorite on the look-ahead line at FanDuel Sportsbook. The Colts won the first meeting against the Texans 30-23 in Week 7 as Brissett passed for 326 yards and four touchdowns.
  • The Chiefs (6-4) and Chargers (4-6) play in Mexico City Monday night and Kansas City is a four-point favorite. The Chiefs are just a half-game in front of the Raiders and this is the Chargers’ last chance to get back in the division and wild card race after losing at Oakland last Thursday. Kansas City blew the game late at Tennessee last week despite 38 minutes of possession and a week-high 530 yards offense to 361 for the Titans, who rushed for a week-high 225 yards.

Market Game of the Week: Houston at Baltimore. This one has some key storylines and big interest in both the AFC playoff and divisional races along with the betting market. The Ravens have won five straight games and are just one game behind the Patriots (8-1) in the playoff race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

The Texans (6-3) play the Ravens this week and then play three straight home games starting with the Colts (5-4) in a key stretch for Houston’s division chances and playoff positioning. In a battle of two quarterbacks challenging for league MVP honors, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (+210) is now the favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. The dual-threat has helped Baltimore lead the league in rushing with 197 yards per game. Houston is No. 4 in the league in rushing (143/game) and the Texans return off the bye with QB DeSean Watson (+700) also in the MVP discussion. As of Thursday the Ravens were taking 77% of the spread bets at DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Week 12 look-ahead lines

Four teams have a bye in Week 12: Cardinals, Vikings, Chiefs, Chargers. Week 12 is the last bye week, and the only division games involve all four teams in the AFC South and NFC South. Key playoff-impacting games include the Panthers at Saints and Thursday’s Colts and Texans game in Houston.

The two most-bet games on Sunday are expected to be Dallas at New England (-7) and Green Bay at San Francisco (-3.5).

GameFanDuel Spread
Colts at Texans HOU -4.5
Dolphins at BrownsCLE -10.5
Broncos at BillsBUF -5.5
Steelers at BengalsPIT -7
Giants at BearsCHI -7.5
Raiders at JetsOAK -3
Panthers at SaintsNO -6.5
Buccaneers at FalconsATL -3
Lions at RedskinsDET -3
Jaguars at TitansTEN -3
Cowboys at PatriotsNE -7
Packers at 49ersSF -3.5
Seahawks at EaglesPHI -3
Ravens at RamsBAL -1

In May, Las Vegas sportsbook CG Technology released NFL lines on every 2019 regular-season game. The highest projected point spreads over the summer for Week 12:

  • NY Giants at Chicago (-10)
  • Carolina at New Orleans (-9)
  • Miami at Cleveland (-8)
  • Baltimore at LA Rams (-7.5)
  • Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-7)

The biggest adjustment from those openers is the Monday night matchup between the Ravens and Rams in Los Angeles, which has a look ahead line of pick ’em this week.

Other current games of interest from those summer lines at CG Technology include:

  • Dallas at New England (-6)
  • Green Bay at San Francisco (PK)
  •  Seattle at Philadelphia (-3.5)
  • Indianapolis at Houston (-2)
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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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