Each week during the NFL season, TheLines will compile a list of implied team totals. In other words, NFL Week 12 implied team totals are how many points each team is expected to score this week, based on simple math with the spread and over/under.
All lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of Nov. 23, rounded to the nearest whole number.
NFL Week 12 Implied Team Totals
|Team||Implied Team Total||Opponent||Location||Spread||Over/Under|
Highest NFL Week 12 implied team totals
|Team||Implied Team Total||FanDuel Team Total||Over Price||Under Price|
The Cowboys come in with a massive total that makes some sense on paper. After all, this has been one of the best offenses in the league and they get to play in favorable conditions against a Raiders defense that has quietly slipped to 22nd in defense DVOA.
In fact, the Raiders’ main strong point on D has been getting to the passer, and that has caused serious slippage in Dak Prescott’s play in recent weeks. Fortunately for him, star LT Tyron Smith should suit up. With a full-strength offensive line, Prescott should find his comfort zone again.
Issues still linger here, though, at wide receiver. COVID-19 protocols have ruled Amari Cooper out already and CeeDee Lamb seems unlikely to play after banging his head on the ground against the Chiefs.
Cedrick Wilson and Noah Brown did not look up to the challenge of increased roles as they dropped numerous passes last week.
There are some question marks around this team this week, and the fact they sit atop this board says a lot about expected scoring around the league.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady and the Bucs got most of their weapons back and Brady was productive once again to end a multi-week rut. Albeit that came against a Giants defense that ranks a middling 17th against the pass according to EPA/play and got zero pressure.
But, the Colts rank even worse at 22nd and they’re a ghastly 28th in adjusted sack rate, again well behind the Giants. And this game takes place indoors as well.
If the defensive coaching staff for the Colts can’t figure out some creative ways to bring heat without giving Brady free checkdowns for yards after catch every other play, the Bucs should threaten 30 again. The Colts’ preferred coverages over recent years have been to guard against big plays, so this does look like an enticing matchup for the Bucs’ high-volume passing game.
San Francisco 49ers
Usually in this spot, we talk about how a passing game has a strong chance to light up the scoreboard. Not necessarily so in this case despite Jimmy Garoppolo having strong EPA stats. Most of that has come against pretty soft competition.
Instead, the San Francisco rushing offense looks to have a dream situation here against a Vikings unit that can’t stop anyone on the ground. The Vikings ranks next-to-last in EPA allowed per rush and dead last in adjusted line yards.
Kyle Shanahan’s offense only increased its potency on the ground of late by involving Deebo Samuel more. Defensive backs on the edge want nothing to do with tackling him when he has a head of steam. His carries have produced 7.2 YPA.
Veteran defensive mind Mike Zimmer may be up to the challenge of getting this unit geared around stopping this fearsome running game. This game looks like a fascinating battle on the coaching level.
Lowest NFL Week 12 implied team totals
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Are the Titans the best football team to find itself in these lowly ranks?
Some might be shocked at the placement of the presumptive top seed at the stone bottom of the implied points. But, look at what this offense has done sans Derrick Henry:
- 3.5 YPP against the Rams, 14 offensive points
- 4.6 YPP against the Saints, 23 offensive points
- 5.3 YPP against the Texans, 13 offensive points
Keep in mind the Saints game included a TD that came after an atrocious roughing the passer call wiped out a Tannehill interception in the end zone. This offense just looks lost right now without its engine.
And now, a Patriots team that ranks second in defense DVOA seems likely to zero in on AJ Brown. Best of luck to Tannehill moving the ball against this team by throwing to Dontrell Hilliard and handing off to Adrian Peterson — in 40-degree weather, no less. (Editor’s note: The Titans have cut Peterson and will instead hand off to D’Onta Foreman.)
The Tim Boyle experience went about as most observers who noted Boyle’s less than extensive history of success expected. For the second straight week, the Lions threw for 77 yards. The only meaningful offense they produced came when D’Andre Swift ripped off an incredible long TD run.
Bless his underdog story and heart, but Boyle simply is not an NFL quarterback.
Luckily for Detroit, Jared Goff might make his return this week. You never want to be in the spot where Goff is the saving grace but that’s currently where this offense — 32nd in passing DVOA — sits.
If he doesn’t, however, this total might wind up looking very high.
On the bright side, the Bears are in a rough spot injury-wise themselves on defense. They lost Khalil Mack for the season and standouts Akiem Hicks and Eddie Jackson both missed last week’s loss to the Ravens.
Throughout all of the offensive struggles, Carolina has quietly remained at least a borderline elite defense according to the advanced metrics.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ own defense has come around and powered them to some competitive and even winning football. The offense is still dragging the team down, though, and the 28th-ranked unit is pretty “balanced” with an awful running game and merely bad passing game.
The common denominator is an offensive line that’s 31st in adjusted line yards and 23rd in adjusted sack rate. Even the big plays Tua Tagovailoa makes often feature him dodging a rusher in the backfield.
Carolina’s pass rushers should have a party here and they have the speed at defensive back to force Tagovailoa to make throws into tight coverage. Expect another slow day for the Miami offense.
Other Notable Implied Team Totals
The Colts crushed the Bills with a steady stream of handoffs to Jonathan Taylor. Can they continue on that path and have another successful day on the ground against, on paper, a much tougher run defense in Tampa Bay?
This game sets up as a fascinating stylistic matchup for the Colts because they’ve been so excellent running behind an elite offensive line. The Bucs have stonewalled everyone on the ground all year but might be without top-tier disruptor Vita Vea, who sustained an injury and missed Monday Night Football.
It didn’t matter against the Giants’ pitiful offensive line, but could the Colts become the first time to really threaten these guys on the ground?
It seems critical they do so, or Carson Wentz probably winds up looking exposed against a secondary that has gotten healthier with the return of Sean Murphy-Bunting. The Colts still have one of the higher totals this week so the market clearly expects some level of success.
The heralded return of Tyrod Taylor has made little if any impact on the toothless Texans offense. Taylor piloted the offense to surprising competence early in the season, but check out the stats from the two games since his return:
- 4.1 YPA passing, 9 points against Miami
- 4.5 YPA passing, 22 points against Tennessee
Not pictured above: 3 INTs against the Dolphins and numerous short fields leading to points against the Titans. It was a chore just to find the end zone after a huge interception return gave them the ball at the opposing 5. They needed three plays and a heroic Taylor rush to hit pay dirt.
Scoring 24 points seems like a pretty tall task even against the awful Jets. They need to get Brandin Cooks involved deep again after he posted 74 yards the past two weeks on a whopping 17 targets.