NFL Week 11 Line Movement: Market Finally Corrects On New England Patriots

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on November 21, 2021
NFL Week 11 spreads

Each week during the 2021 NFL seasonTheLines will examine how the coming week’s NFL lines have changed relative to preseason or prior expectations. Often, early lines can give an objective look at teams’ relative talent levels, absent week-to-week recency bias when the weekend results take hold. Let’s take a look at NFL Week 11 spreads and see which numbers have changed and, potentially, why.

Tracked lines below come from FanDuel Sportsbook. Prices are -110, unless otherwise noted.

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The Biggest Week 11 NFL Spread Move

The biggest NFL Week 11 spread move went toward a team that the market disrespected a bit last week. However, the Patriots once again proved they are a coalescing into a force, and the market appears to have at long last adjusted.

GameLook-Ahead LineNov. 17, 1 p.m. ET
New England Patriots at Atlanta FalconsPatriots -3.5Patriots -7 (-105)

Patriots At Falcons

The Patriots’ three-game run to above .500 could get nitpicked away if one so chose. The Panthers stink and had a QB playing at all-time worst levels. Pretty much likewise for the Jets, a team the market rates as the league’s absolute worst. The Chargers have a solid team, but Justin Herbert made a couple of brutal mistakes to give the game away.

The time for picking nits has ended, though. New England completely steamrolled a very solid Browns team. Not only did they win by 38, but that was no fluke as they outgained them 7.3 YPP to 3.7.

The Patriots are for real and the market finally acknowledged such. Every result for two months other than a narrow escape over the Texans says this is a contender.

Of course, the Cowboys pounding the Falcons into dust plays a role here as well. The loss of Cordarelle Patterson to injury further weakens an incredibly thin corps of weapons.

The market has decided the Pats are worthy of being big road favorites. Matt Ryan will need to play a whale of game to keep the Falcons in this one.

Three Week 11 Moves Through Key Numbers

Three notable smaller moves saw game spreads move through key numbers.

GameLook-Ahead LineNov. 17, 1 p.m. ET
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo BillsBills -6.5Bills -7.5 (-104)
Miami Dolphins at NY JetsDolphins -2.5Dolphins -3.5 (-105)
Washington Football Team at Carolina PanthersPanthers -2Panthers -3.5 (-105)

Colts At Bills

The Bills bounced back from one of the worst games any team has played this season with an absolute shellacking of the Jets.

However, it’s difficult to glean anything from this game. Like many previous Bills blowouts, the weak opposition handed them a slew of turnovers (five this time) to make it so Buffalo hardly had to do anything. The last time the offense moved the ball with any consistency against a defense with a pulse was back in Week 6 against the Titans.

On paper, this appears a good matchup for Buffalo’s offense. They love to air it out and can do so with abandon against a defense ranked 24th in pass defense DVOA. Eschewing the run, as they usually do, should be wise here.

Do they have a counter ready if the Colts copy what the Jaguars did to them and win with four up front while disrespecting the running game?

The market believes the Bills have gotten back on track, so non-believers can now get two scores here.

Dolphins At Jets

Some early-week news here raised plenty of eyebrows as the Jets announced they plan to start mid-season pickup Joe Flacco at QB. The Mike White experience finally blew up in a hail of ugly interceptions and the team says rookie Zach Wilson hasn’t gotten fully healthy.

Flacco has appeared in 14 games since he left Baltimore. Over that time, he’s been surprisingly decent with 13 TDs, 8 INTs and 6.8 YPA.

The bugaboo has been the sacks. A 7.6% rate is atrocious. Never fleet of foot, Flacco’s mobility has likely only become worse as he’s aged — he’s now 36. Combine that with a Dolphins team that ranks second in blitz rate and a Jets line that’s 25th in adjusted sack rate and you have a potential recipe for disaster.

The Dolphins defense may have turned a corner as well. They’re third in EPA/play since Week 8. Sure, it’s a tiny sample but they played two purported Super Bowl contenders in that time. They should feast here and the market bumped them to -3.5 after seeing the Jets lose by two or more scores for the third time in four games.

Football Team At Panthers

One of the more bizarre moves saw the Panthers get pushed past a field goal favorite as well against Washington.

Sure, the Panthers completely wrecked the Cardinals, 34-10 and that doesn’t really do it justice. But, that team was a shell of the Cardinals that blitzed the league for the first couple of months, missing multiple key performers including QB Kyler Murray.

Throughout this team’s downfall, the defense has remained solid. They rank third in DVOA and second in EPA/play.

Does signing Cam Newton really move the needle for this offense, though? That’s been the major issue and it’s hard to see how a broken down Newton can carry this team to an average level of play. To be sure, he can’t produce an output any worse than whatever Sam Darnold was doing before injury mercifully spared us having to continue watching him.

Is it enough to rightfully move them through a key number among NFL Week 11 spreads against a team that just dominated Tampa Bay?

One More NFL Week 11 Spread Move Of Note

GameLook-Ahead LineNov. 17, 1 p.m. ET
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle SeahawksSeahawks -1Cardinals -2.5 (-104)

The Cardinals made it through one game of Colt McCoy at the helm but a second proved too tall a task.

However, as bad as they looked, it didn’t compare to the Seahawks getting blanked in Green Bay. The market heralded the return of Russell Wilson with steady Seahawks steam throughout the week and Seattle let those high-influence bettors down in swift and firm fashion.

So, it appears to have made an equally swift correction among NFL Week 11 spreads, pricing Seattle like a below-average team.

The question remains: will Murray return to lead the Cardinals offense? The market has priced like he will, but it did so last week as well and we saw how that went. Murray himself says he’s “pretty close” to a return. If that doesn’t happen, expect Seattle to close at least -3 here.

NFL Week 11 Spreads, Movement Tracker

GameLook-Ahead LineNov. 17, 1 p.m. ETNov. 21, 11 a.m. ET
New England Patriots at Atlanta FalconsPatriots -3.5Patriots -7 (-105)N/A
Detroit Lions at Cleveland BrownsBrowns -10Browns -11.5Browns -13.5
San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars49ers -649ers -6.549ers -6.5 (-115)
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo BillsBills -6.5Bills -7.5 (-104)Bills -7 (-112)
Miami Dolphins at NY JetsDolphins -2.5Dolphins -3.5 (-105)Dolphins -3.5 (-112)
Washington Football Team at Carolina PanthersPanthers -2Panthers -3.5 (-105)Panthers -3 (-118)
Baltimore Ravens at Chicago BearsRavens -6Ravens -5.5 (-114)Ravens -3.5 (-115)
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia EaglesSaints -1Eagles -1.5 (-106)Eagles -3 (-108)
Houston Texans at Tennessee TitansTitans -10Titans -10.5Titans -10.5 (-105)
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota VikingsPackers -2.5Packers -2.5 (-105)Packers -1.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas RaidersRaiders -1Bengals -1Bengals -1.5
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle SeahawksSeahawks -1Cardinals -2.5 (-104)Seahawks -3
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City ChiefsChiefs -2.5Chiefs -2.5 (-118)Chiefs -2.5 (-115)
Pittsburgh Steelers at LA ChargersChargers -3.5Chargers -5.5Chargers -6
NY Giants at Tampa Bay BuccaneersBuccaneers -12.5Buccaneers -11 (-105)Buccaneers -10.5 (-114)
Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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