NFL Week 11 Betting Preview: New York Jets at New England Patriots Spread

Written By FairwayJay on November 17, 2022
jets patriots spread

The New York Jets visit Foxboro to tackle the New England Patriots at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 20. Primary markets for the AFC East game show the Jets Patriots spread at NE and on the moneyline with the takeback on the Jets . The total is set at points. CBS carries the TV coverage.

In this article, we’ll dig into everything you need to know before placing a bet on the game, including team matchups, key metrics, weather and the best available NFL Week 11 odds. Click on the odds anywhere in this post to bet now.

Jets Patriots Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

When using this Jets Patriots spread table, click the dropdown menu to switch the type of bet you wish to make –  spreads, totals, and moneylines.

Betting the point spread is when you wager on how many points a team will win or lose by. A plus sign in front of the Jets Patriots spread denotes the underdog, and a minus sign denotes the favorite. 

In this case, the Patriots would have to win by at least 4 points if you bet them to cover the point spread (-3 or -3.5). Conversely, a spread bet on the Jets would need New York to either win outright, or lose by 1-2 points (depending on the spread you bet), or tie in overtime.

Betting the moneyline is simply betting on which particular team will win a game.

Wagering on the game total, or over/under, is simply a bet on how many total points the two teams will combine to score in a game.

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Jets at Patriots Players Props

In the props tool search bar, type in a team or player and hit enter. You’ll see the various proposition bets offered by leading online sportsbooks. 

This is a valuable tool that allows bettors to compare odds and stats when considering a prop bet. Unlike bigger markets like moneylines and spreads that often reach a consensus number, shopping for prop bet lines can often reveal sizable differences in the numbers.

Jets at Patriots Betting News & Angles

Use this rolling, updating list of news bites about each team to help your handicapping for Jets – Patriots odds.

The Jets (6-3) and Patriots (5-4) are both off their bye week and battling the Dolphins (7-3) and Bills (6-3) for the top spot in the rugged AFC East, where the Jets are currently +1200 to win the division at BetMGM. New York is 4-0 SU and ATS on the road this season winning three times as underdog including twice taking more than 6 points. 

New England beat the Jets 22-17 on Oct. 30 as a 3-point favorite. Jets QB Zach Wilson passed for 355 yards and 2 TD’s, but tossed 3 costly interceptions. 

Jets at Patriots Weather Report

As of Thursday, the weather at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA is expected to be partly cloudy with temperatures near 40 degrees and SW winds 10-12 MPH.

Patriots Vs. Jets Injury Report

New England Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Kyle DuggerDBAnkleQuestionable47.3
Anfernee JenningsLBBackQuestionable34.3
Josh UcheLBHamstringQuestionable23.7
Jake BaileyPBackQuestionable13.8

New York Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Duane BrownOTShoulderQuestionable58.4

Patriots Offense Vs. Jets Defense

Patriots OffenseStats (Rank)Jets Defense
22.6 (14)Points/Gm19.6 (10)
0.4 (2)Points/Play0.3 (1)
319.9 (26)Yards/Gm312.0 (7)
202.7 (23)Pass Yards/Gm201.1 (9)
117.2 (17)Rush Yards/Gm110.9 (11)
5.3 (19)Yards/Play4.8 (4)
6.9 (9)Yards/Pass5.8 (3)
4.1 (25)Yards/Rush4.0 (5)
39.1% (21)3rd Down %42.1% (22)
46.2% (28)Red Zone %58.3% (17)
17 (29)Turnovers14 (8)
22 (18)Sacks26 (12)

Jets Offense Vs. Patriots Defense

Jets OffenseStats (Rank)Patriots Defense
21.8 (19)Points/Gm18.4 (6)
0.3 (19)Points/Play0.3 (1)
334.8 (18)Yards/Gm325.0 (13)
218.8 (19)Pass Yards/Gm204.3 (11)
116.0 (18)Rush Yards/Gm120.7 (19)
5.3 (19)Yards/Play5.2 (8)
6.1 (25)Yards/Pass6.1 (6)
4.6 (15)Yards/Rush4.7 (22)
33.6% (28)3rd Down %38.6% (13)
57.1% (13)Red Zone %51.9% (9)
13 (18)Turnovers17 (3)
21 (14)Sacks32 (2)

Jets at Patriots Betting Insights

Why The Jets Can Cover The Spread

The Jets have played the tougher schedule (No. 3 vs No. 25) and New York has a better yards per play margin than New England (+0.5 vs +0.1). The Jets are also 5-1 with QB Zach Wilson as the starter with their only loss to New England when  he threw three interceptions and the Jets ran the ball just 15 times. New York  should balance the offensive attack more after rushing 34 times for 174 yards the following week to beat the Bills 20-17 with James Robinson and Michael Carter splitting carries. More running and balance will help the Jets in this rematch, and New York’s defense ranks No. 6 overall and No. 6 in pass defense DVOA to hold the Patriots offense under 300 yards and 4.0 yards per play as they did on Oct. 30. The Jets defense also has allowed scores on 16.7% of opponent drives in close and late situations this season — best in NFL.

Why The Patriots Can Cover The Spread

The Patriots have pressured opposing QB’s on 29.9% of passing plays this season — second-best in NFL. New England ranks No. 2 in pass defense DVOA, and the Patriots forced 3 Zach Wilson turnovers in their 22-17 road win over the Jets Oct. 30. The Jets have run successful plays on just 10.5% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — worst in NFL. New England’s offense and QB Mac Jones get a boost this week with the return of center David Anderson, who missed the last two games with a concussion including against the Jets.  

Reasons To Bet The Over

A low total offers potential, but there is little in the stats, match-ups and familiarity to point to any more scoring than the first match-up on Oct. 30 in the Patriots 22-17 win over the Jets. 

Reasons To Bet The Under

The Patriots have averaged 3.8 and 3.3 yards per play on offense in their last two games while gaining just 288 yards vs the Jets and 203 vs the Colts. The Patriots have not recorded a TD in 23 drives in the 1st quarter this season — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 6.4. First half under bets are in order as well, and the Jets will turn to their running game more in this rematch looking to minimize QB Zach Wilson’s mistakes.    

Jets at Patriots Props: Matchups to Watch for

Zach Wilson vs Patriots pass rush and secondary

Wilson tossed 3 interceptions vs the Patriots on Oct. 30, and completed just 20-of-41 passes. But he did pass for 355 yards playing from behind to easily surpass his passing yardage prop. Wilson was sacked twice vs the Patriots and New England’s adjusted sack rate is 8.9% which ranks No. 26 by Football Outsiders. Wilson has just 4 TD passes in 6 games and 2 were against the Patriots. Offensive coordinator dialed back Wilson’s responsibilities the next game vs Buffalo, and emphasized Wilson getting rid of the ball quicker with faster and more decisive throws. Rookie WR and top pick Garrett Wilson has emerged as the teams leading receiver after 92 yards and 8 catches vs the Bills. That followed a season high 115 yards against the Patriots making him a primary target for Wilson in the rematch. 

Jets running backs vs Patriots defense

The Jets went with a shared backfield against the Bills and newly acquired RB James Robinson rushed 13 times for 48 yards against a stronger Buffalo defensive front. Michael Carter rushed 12 times for 76 yards and a TD against the Bills last game after just 7 rushes for 26 yards against the Patriots as the Jets abandoned the running game playing in the second half. The Patriots defense has tackled opponents for a loss on just 15 of 225 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) this season — worst in NFL. The league average is 12%.

Mac Jones vs Jets pass defense

Quarterback Mac Jones has regressed in his sophomore season, and that could be partly due to the poor play calling of offensive coordinator Matt Patricia. Jones missed three games with a high ankle sprain, and has just 4 TD passes and 7 interceptions. His 5.25 yards per pass the last two games may not improve facing the Jets No. 6 pass defense by DVOA ratings. Jets CB Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner is the No. 1 Cornerback in the NFL, per PFF. He leads the NFL with an 87.8 coverage grade & 14 PD’s, and “Sauce” is the current favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year.  

Final thoughts

The Jets are 6-2 SU/ATS since their poor opening week performance against the Ravens. New York bettors have been especially pleased with the Jets improved play and results. The Jets have remained undervalued with poor perception from September play, but have played much better since the start of October. The win over the Bills as a double-digit underdog last game had an impact on sportsbooks and betting, as the Patriots were a 3-point favorite at New York to close October and are now laying 3 to 3.5 points at home three weeks later. 

Take 3.5 as available on the Jets at Caesars Sportsbook if you like New York as this line should close on the key number of 3 across the board. 

Best of luck betting on the Jets Patriots spread and props.

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FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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