NFL Week 11 Odds: Cleveland Browns At Buffalo Bills Betting Preview

Written By Brett Gibbons on November 17, 2022
Browns Bills Odds

The Cleveland Browns (3-6) visit the Buffalo Bills (6-3) in NFL Week 11 action on Sunday, Nov. 20 at 1:00 p.m. ET. Kickoff comes from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY, and will be broadcast on CBS. The Browns Bills spread show Buffalo as heavy favorites and the Browns are on the moneyline. The over/under currently sits at points.

Note, a blizzard in this game could change when it is played and where it is played. More on that below. In this article we break down everything you need to know before betting the Browns Bills spread and various odds. We’ll look at team matchups, key metrics, and the best available odds.

Browns Bills Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

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Browns At Bills Player Props

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Browns At Bills Betting News & Angles

Browns At Bills Weather

As of Nov. 15, weather in Buffalo calls for highs in the 20s and “up to two feet of snow possible” by Sunday. In response, early team totals and over/unders have taken a dive. Watch for the weather forecast to evolve as the week moves forward. And know the house rules for Bills Browns bets if the game gets moved.

Bills Vs. Browns Injury Report

Buffalo Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Rodger SaffoldOGShoulderQuestionable65.8
Josh AllenQBElbowQuestionable64.9
Matt MilanoLBIllnessQuestionable62.5
Tremaine EdmundsLBGroinQuestionable59.6
Kaiir ElamCBAnkleQuestionable47.1
Gregory RousseauDEAnkleQuestionable35.3
Reggie GilliamFBIllnessQuestionable32.7
Jordan PhillipsDTIllnessQuestionable32.1
Tim SettleDTIllnessQuestionable31.1
Jake KumerowWRAnkleQuestionable27.2
Cam LewisCBForearmQuestionable25.6
Marquez StevensonWRFootQuestionable

Here’s more from TheLines Injury Expert Will Carroll on Josh Allen’s elbow injury.

Cleveland Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Ethan PocicCAnkleQuestionable73.2
Jack ConklinOTFootProbable66.7
David NjokuTEAnkleQuestionable59.1
Wyatt TellerOGCalfQuestionable59.1
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLBKneeProbable47.7
Michael DunnOGBackQuestionable15.1

Bills Offense Vs. Browns Defense

Bills OffenseStats (Rank)Browns Defense
27.8 (2)Points/Gm26.4 (31)
0.4 (2)Points/Play0.4 (17)
424.1 (1)Yards/Gm349.1 (17)
294.2 (2)Pass Yards/Gm218 (19)
129.9 (10)Rush Yards/Gm131.1 (23)
6.5 (1)Yards/Play5.8 (23)
7.6 (4)Yards/Pass7.1 (25)
5.3 (3)Yards/Rush4.8 (26)
52.4% (1)3rd Down %41.3% (18)
52.9% (21)Red Zone %58.8% (20)
18 (30)Turnovers8 (27)
18 (7)Sacks20 (18)

Browns Offense Vs. Bills Defense

Browns OffenseStats (Rank)Bills Defense
24.1 (10)Points/Gm16.8 (2)
0.4 (2)Points/Play0.3 (1)
375.9 (5)Yards/Gm319.8 (8)
217.1 (20)Pass Yards/Gm210.2 (14)
158.8 (5)Rush Yards/Gm109.6 (7)
5.6 (11)Yards/Play5.2 (8)
6.7 (12)Yards/Pass6.1 (6)
4.9 (6)Yards/Rush4.5 (13)
41.3% (12)3rd Down %40.4% (15)
60.6% (10)Red Zone %44.4% (3)
13 (18)Turnovers17 (3)
19 (10)Sacks27 (8)

Browns At Bills Betting Insights

Why The Bills Can Cover The Spread

Impending weather and the reduced effectiveness of an injured Josh Allen has caused the market to move off the Bills this week. After opening as -9.5 favorites, the number dove to -8 by Tuesday. If the number continues to dive, the Bills may be the correct side of this one. Oftentimes, the effects of weather are overstated, especially snow in a game between two teams extremely familiar with playing in snow.

The Browns field the worst rushing defense in the NFL by a comfortable margin; in their last game out, they allowed Miami (NFL’s 29th rushing offense) to rush for 200 yards. The Bills offense is vastly superior to the Browns defense and it’s not particularly close. Should Buffalo play to their potential– snow or not– they will push this Browns defense around and comfortably cover eight points.]

That said, savvy bettors will want to wait to pull the trigger on Buffalo until the number starts to get some buyback. How low will this spread drop ahead of kickoff?

Why The Browns Can Cover The Spread

If the weather plays out like the forecast says, the Browns are going to be forced to resorting to their run game. Luckily for this offense, that’s their biggest strength by far, often marred by coaching needing to test out their passing game. If this game turns into a rock fight, the Browns can keep it close.

Only Baltimore is more effective at running the football this season. The Browns are second in rush EPA, second in rushing success rate, and sixth in yards per rush (4.9). Good as the Bills defense has been this season, they’re 19th in rushing success rate allowed and 14th in yards per rush allowed (4.5– 5.9 over their last three outings). The Vikings closed the game out through the air last week, but they found success with Dalvin Cook on the ground. Nick Chubb has an opportunity have a strong game.

That also plays into the Bills being favored by nearly 10 points in what could be a messy game. Without safety Jordan Poyer in the lineup, the Bills are 1-3 outright (5-0 with him in). He’s still recovering from an elbow injury, so watch his status for Sunday.

Reasons To Bet The Over

In a similar regard to waiting to see how low the Bills’ spread will drop, wait to see how far this total will fall. Both teams are perfectly suited to play in snowy conditions should that hinder play at all. The run-oriented Browns offense won’t be affected all that much by tougher conditions and the over is likely the sharp play here.

In under 24 hours between Monday and Tuesday, the total crashed from 47.5 to 43 at DraftKings Sportsbook before it saw some buyback. Only twice this season has the point total in a Browns game gone under 43.5 and never under 43.

Cleveland should be able to run the football just fine on Buffalo’s defense, and Buffalo should have no trouble moving the ball a number of ways in this one.

Reasons To Bet The Under

If you really buy into the effect of serious snow, maybe the under is the play. After all, these two teams played in a blizzard in the past to a 9-6 final that involved zero touchdowns. However, I’m not playing historical results for this one.

If the total continues to see buyback at 43 points, pulling the trigger on under 43.5 points would be play congruent with the market.

Browns At Bills Props: Matchups To Watch For

Stefon Diggs Vs. Browns Secondary: Despite a number of talented names in the Browns secondary like Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson, the Browns don’t have a player capable of guarding Stefon Diggs. While giving up 200 yards on the ground to the Dolphins was the headlining story for the Browns defense last week, Ward and the rest of the Cleveland secondary were torn up by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

As is customary with a Joe Woods defense, the Browns will play soft zone coverage and Allen is fully capable of carving that kind of look up. Cleveland doesn’t run complex coverages, they don’t make in-game defensive adjustments, and Diggs is going to have a ton of free releases.

Nick Chubb Vs. Bills Run Defense: Buffalo’s defense began as one teams didn’t try to run on. They’ve been a stout unit, particularly inside, for a few seasons now, but the run game is a greater weakness for the Bills. They’re a top-five unit against the pass– something the Browns don’t excel at on the road– but Chubb should be able to run on this team.

If the weather necessitates more reliance in the run game, then Chubb will see a huge workload. When player props come out, I’m looking to bet over Chubb’s rushing total.

Final Thoughts

The reaction to forecast extreme weather has been heavy this week. One of my favorite betting strategies in football is capitalizing on market overreaction to weather events that, a) won’t be as bad as previously expected or b) don’t really change up the game plan all that much. In this case, I’m looking to capitalize on both.

The Browns and Bills are both outdoor-playing teams from the north and have played in plenty of snowy games. Essentially, I’m betting the original lines because I feel like those are more accurate and the current lines reflect a market scared of snow. The Browns are extremely run-centric, the Bills are prone to the run game. Conversely, this Browns unit cannot and will not stop the Bills offense.

Two bets I’m looking at are over points and over either team’s total. However, I’m waiting as long as possible to see if these numbers continue to dive.

Best of luck betting the Browns Bills spread and other odds in this game.

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Brett Gibbons Avatar
Written by
Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

View all posts by Brett Gibbons