The Recency Report: NFL Week 10 Market Moves And Week 11 Look-Ahead Lines

Every week, TheLines turns to FanDuel Sportsbook for opening look-ahead lines for next week’s NFL games. These advance lines are posted every Thursday, a full week before the ensuing week’s games on the schedule.

In this article, we also take a look at the current lines compared to the opening lines at FanDuel from the previous week. Here’s a look at some of the storylines and betting situations that have impacted (or could impact) the Week 10 NFL card:

• Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes practiced Wednesday and the market is reacting to the news with movement upward on the Kansas City at Tennessee matchup.
• The Panthers (5-3) start the second half of the season with QB Kyle Allen leading the offense as Cam Newton is officially out for the season with a Linsfranc injury. The Panthers are 5-1 with Allen as the starter and four of the games were on the road with a lone loss at undefeated San Francisco (8-0). Carolina's MVP however is RB Christian McCaffrey, who is No. 2 in the NFL with 811 rushing yards but leads all running backs with 5.3 yards per rush, 10 rushing touchdowns, 110 rushing yards per game and 20 rushing attempts per game. McCaffrey figures to have another strong game here; Green Bay's rush defense is in the bottom quartile of league stats allowing 127 rushing yards per game at 4.7 yards per rush.
• The Bengals (0-8) are now the only winless team and enter the rematch with the Ravens off a bye. Rookie QB Ryan Finley will make his starting debut replacing Andy Dalton, who has been the Bengals starter since 2011. Cincinnati is a 10-point home underdog, and the stats suggest another one-sided running attack after the Ravens ran for 269 yards in their 23-17 Week 6 win over the Bengals. Cincinnati is allowing a league-worst 5.1 yards per rush, and the offense is averaging a league-low 59 rushing yards per game while the Ravens rushing attack is a league-best 204 per game. Another steamrolling loss will make it more difficult for first-year head coach Zac Taylor to keep his job.
• The Sunday night feature is Minnesota (6-3) at Dallas (5-3) with both teams in good position for a playoff push and division title. The Cowboys are a three-point favorite in a key NFC conference game. The Vikings trail the Packers (7-2) by a game in the NFC North after both teams lost last week. The Cowboys are a half-game in front of the Eagles (5-4) in the NFC East with Dallas entering off a Monday night win at New York against the Giants.
• Seattle (7-2) at San Francisco (8-0) is a key NFC West matchup that will draw great betting interest. The 49ers are a six-point favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook and -6.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Wilson is the current favorite to win the league MVP award, and his 22 touchdown passes and just one interception with a league-best QB Rating are just part of the reason. Seattle's defense has allowed at least 20 points in all but one game this season (25.6 per game), and Wilson has had to make the plays to keep the offense productive and scoring. The 49ers scoring defense is No. 2 in the league (12.8 PPG) and the offense is gaining steam behind quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and new receiver Emmanuel Sanders, who calls head coach Kyle Shanahan a 'wizard' when it comes to playcalling.

How to use look-ahead lines

We’ll be providing the NFL advance lines from FanDuel Sportsbook each week to allow you a sneak peek at the projected lines for the following week’s games. This advance information from a big bookmaker provides lessons in understanding lines and projections before the current week’s games are played.

The tendency for many bettors is to over-react to the previous week’s scores and results. The look-ahead lines provide a sense of stability from the linemaker, who is unbiased in setting the lines in advance without the information from the current week’s contests.

Bettors can also gain an edge or find value in the lines once the current week’s lines are released. They do this based on not only a potential overreaction to the recent week’s results, but by using information they have on teams, including NFL power rankings. Making adjustments is part of the process, along with formulating an opinion and whether they are a believer in some teams or not in others. This can be based on personnel, injuries, situations, stats or angles they want to apply as the season progresses.

Week 10 market movement

The Chiefs hope to have QB Patrick Mahomes back this week against the Titans at Tennessee. After Mahomes practiced fully Wednesday for the first time since dislocating his right kneecap back on October 17, it appears he will play against the Titans. The line was -3.5 on Wednesday, but the market has reacted with FanDuel Sportsbook showing Kansas City a 4.5-point favorite Thursday. DraftKings Sportsbook has moved the Chiefs to -6 along with other sportsbooks including William Hill Sports.

The line flipped in Thursday's Raiders versus Chargers (-1.5) matchup after Oakland was a 1.5-point favorite on the Week 10 lookahead lines, and also on the opening lines Sunday night following the games.

The game at MetLife Stadium between the Jets (1-7) and Giants (2-7) has seen the line flip from Jets as a slight favorite to underdog with the Giants currently a 2.5-point favorite at both DraftKings and FanDuel sportsbooks. The total has moved up sharply to 44.5.

The biggest adjustment from the Week 10 look-ahead lines was the Colts from -15.5 hosting the Dolphins to currently -10.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook and -10 at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Colts QB Jacoby Brissett (knee) was limited in practice Wednesday, and he's questionable to play with Brian Hoyer ready to go after filling in well last week passing for 168 yards and three touchdowns after Brissett went down with an injury in a 26-24 loss at Pittsburgh. That situation combined with the Dolphins first win last week and improved offensive production with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick playing well has reduced the line.

As of Thursday, the teams taking the most spread bets at DraftKings Sportsbook are the Giants (91%), Bills (89%), Rams (87%), Seahawks (85%) Ravens (83%) and Lions (82%).

Market Game of the Week: While the Chiefs are taking more spread bets with news of Mahomes nearly ready to start at quarterback, it's the Bills (6-2) that bettors are also piling on with more than 80% of spread bets on Buffalo against the Browns (2-6) in Cleveland. numberFire shows the Bills taking 85% of the spread bets and 66% of the money. Browns bettors have had enough with coach Freddy Kitchens and the underachieving Browns. Cleveland returns home on a 0-4 SU/ATS run following back-to-back road losses at New England and Denver. Last week's 24-19 loss to the Broncos was the tipping point, as despite a 21-13 first down edge, 352-302 yards advantage, 35 minutes of ball possession and running 73 offensive plays to just 43 for the Broncos, it was another dumbfounding defeat for the Browns.

NFL Week 11 look-ahead lines

Four teams have a bye in Week 11: the Packers, Giants, Seahawks and Titans. The Sunday schedule kicks off with Atlanta at Carolina and New Orleans at Tampa Bay in the NFC, and Jacksonville at Indianapolis and Pittsburgh at Cleveland in the AFC. The late afternoon division game is Arizona at San Francisco with the 49ers (-14) the highest point spread of the week. Monday night in Mexico City features the division duel between the Chiefs and Chargers.

In May, Las Vegas sportsbook CG Technology released NFL lines on every 2019 regular-season game. The highest projected point spreads over the summer for Week 11:

• Arizona at San Francisco (-8.5)
• Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-6.5)
• Denver at Minnesota (-6)

Now the look-ahead lines project the 49ers at -14 and the Vikings -9.5.

Other current games of interest from those summer lines at CG Technology include:

• Pittsburgh at Cleveland (-2.5)
• Dallas (-2.5) at Detroit
• New Orleans (-4) at Tampa Bay
• New England at Philadelphia (-1)
• Chicago at LA Rams (-5.5)
• Buffalo at Miami (-2.5)

The biggest line adjustment of the week is expected to be on the Bills laying at least seven points at Miami.