The Week 11 primetime games on Sunday and Monday night will feature first-place teams as the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears battle for the NFC North lead in Chicago. On Monday night in Mexico City, the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams will settle the score for the best record as both enter Week 10 at 8-1. Pittsburgh at Jacksonville is a Week 11 rematch from last year’s AFC playoff game, while Philadelphia at New Orleans is another game between two playoff teams from last year that are in position to return to the playoffs again this season.
Adjusting to market moves
The public piled on some big favorites last week and won big as many sportsbooks in Las Vegas and New Jersey suffered their worst Sunday of the season on Nov. 4. The big favorites were also playing losing teams and delivered relatively easy wins and covers as Kansas City (-8) beat Cleveland 37-21; Chicago (-10) buried Buffalo 41-9; Minnesota (-5) dogged Detroit 24-9; and Pittsburgh (+1.5) was bet hard off the key number of 3 and beat Baltimore 23-16 as a slight underdog. Those four results went many bettors way and destroyed the sportsbooks.
The tendency of many bettors is to over (or under) react to games and events they saw most recently, and to also bet against bad or losing teams. Two losing teams that will take little wagering action from the public as home underdogs in Week 10 are Cleveland (+4.5) vs. Atlanta and Oakland (+10) vs. the LA Chargers. The public will also pile on two first place teams that won for them last week as New Orleans (-5.5) travels to Cincinnati with the Bengals off their bye week, and New England (-6.5) travels to Tennessee to tackle the Titans, who won Monday night at Dallas and return home on a short week. Last week’s key victories by the Saints over the previously undefeated Rams and the Patriots Sunday night win over the Packers are two examples of winning teams that will get market support. New Orleans and New England have already seen an uptick of at least two points from the lookahead betting line to the current Week 10 line. More on that in a bit.
While it’s essential to make adjustments in your handicapping and sports betting approach based on information such as impactful injuries, statistical profiles, player performance and personnel changes, and scheduling situations including bye weeks, it’s also important to understand a bookmaker’s approach to setting the lines and its understanding of how bettors react to recent results.
The losing and perceived bad teams will have adjustments in the line, and especially following a poor performance. The Bookmaker knows how the public bettors will react, and if will be difficult to draw bets on those ‘losers’, thus an adjustment in price and the betting line as the bookmaker tries to make the bad teams look more appealing hoping to draw more action on the ugly underdogs. You can also see the adjustment in price on winning teams like New Orleans, New England, Kansas City, Chicago and the LA Chargers this week. Dallas’ dud on Monday night has also impacted the Week 11 line at Philadelphia.
Week 10 look-ahead lines and major moves
For the Week 10 games on Sunday, Nov. 11, these are the games where there was at least a 2-point difference from the look-ahead line in Las Vegas or New Jersey and current line:
- Carolina at Pittsburgh (-6 at SuperBook) – Current line Steelers -3.5
- New Orleans (-3.5 at FanDuel) at Cincinnati – Current line Saints -5.5
- Atlanta (-1 at SuperBook) at Cleveland – Current line Falcons -4
- Washington at Tampa Bay (PK at SuperBook) – Current line Buccaneers -3
- New England (-4 at FanDuel) at Tennessee – Current line Patriots -6.5
- Miami at Green Bay (-7 at FanDuel) – Current line Packers -9.5
- Detroit at Chicago (-4 at FanDuel) – Current line Bears -6.5
- Arizona at Kansas City (-13 at FanDuel) – Current line Chiefs -16.5
- LA Chargers (-6.5 at FanDuel) at Oakland – Current line Chargers -10
- Dallas at Philadelphia (-5.5 at FanDuel) – Current line Eagles -7.5
Week 11 look-ahead lines
|Game||Westgate Line||FanDuel Line|
|Green Bay at Seattle||SEA -3||SEA -2.5|
|Carolina at Detroit||CAR -3||CAR -1.5|
|Cincinnati at Baltimore||BAL -5.5||BAL -6.5|
|Dallas at Atlanta||ATL -4.5||ATL -3.5|
|Houston at Washington||PK||HOU -2|
|Pittsburgh at Jacksonville||PIT -3||PIT -2.5|
|Tampa Bay at NY Giants||PK||TB -1.5|
|Tennessee at Indianapolis||IND -3||IND -3|
|Denver at LA Chargers||LAC -6.5||LAC -7|
|Oakland at Arizona||ARI -3||ARI -3|
|Philadelphia at New Orleans||NO -6.5||OFF|
|Minnesota at Chicago||CHI -2.5||CHI -1|
|Kansas City vs LA Rams (Mexico)||LAR -1.5||LAR -3|