Week 11 got off to an explosive start with the Seahawks taking down the Cardinals, 28-21, on Thursday night. Sunday’s early window will then feature a clash between last January’s AFC Divisional Round opponents – Tennessee and Baltimore, and the Steelers taking their quest for an undefeated season on the road to Jacksonville. Here we look at NFL Week 11 odds.
The late schedule is main-evented by a Packers versus Colts interconference tussle in Indy. A pair of intriguing primetime matchups in Chiefs versus Raiders and Rams versus Buccaneers then close out the NFL’s last pre-Thanksgiving slate.
NFL Week 11 odds
NFL Week 11 odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Thursday, Nov. 19
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-3) – 8:20 p.m. ET
The Cardinals pulled off another late-game miracle in Week 10, sealing a comeback victory over the Bills with a successful Hail Mary from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins. Meanwhile, the Seahawks were manhandled by another NFC West division mate, the Rams, which toppled them on the road by a 23-16 score.
Arizona went to 6-3 Sunday by continuing to live on the edge. Thursday, they’ll face another one of the victims of their improbable heroics this season. The Cardinals toppled the Seahawks in their first meeting back in Week 7.
They overcame a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter and subsequently won the game in overtime. Seattle’s pass defense continues to be a major Achilles heel. The ‘Hawks are allowing an NFL-high 353.3 passing yards per game, even after the run-heavy Rams took it easy on them in that regard Week 10. Murray threw for 360 yards and three TDs versus Seattle in the first meeting, while Hopkins produced a 10-103-1 line.
The Seahawks had their own share of offensive success against the Cardinals. Arizona will have to specifically address their Tyler Lockett problem. The speedster exploded for 15 receptions, 200 yards and three touchdowns in the Week 7 contest. The Budda Baker/Patrick Peterson-led secondary isn’t usually as generous. The Cards are yielding a respectable 232.0 passing yards per road game and typically do an above-average job of keeping plays in front of them. They’re yielding the ninth-lowest yards per attempt (6.4). The matchup on the ground is a bit more giving. Arizona is giving up 127.8 rushing yards per road contest and 4.3 RB yards per carry overall.
However, Seattle RB Chris Carson (foot) is unlikely to play against Arizona. Carlos Hyde, who is also banged up with a hamstring injury, is expected to play.
Despite the Seahawks having dropped two straight and three of the last four, Seattle is currently a () favorite.
Sunday, Nov. 22
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-6) – 1 p.m. ET
The Titans continued their mid-season slide in Week 10, opening the slate with a 34-17 Thursday night drubbing at the hands of the Colts. The Ravens ultimately didn’t fare any better. Baltimore suffered a rather surprising road loss to the Patriots, 23-17.
Tennessee has now dropped three of its last four games after a 5-0 start. Two of the three defeats coming against teams with winning records. The Titans don’t have injuries to blame, either. Rather, the defense has often come up short, with Tennessee particularly having difficulty defending the pass. The Titans are allowing an elevated 67.8 percent completion rate and 277.4 passing yards per contest. The matchup in that regard against the Ravens isn’t a bad one for Tennessee. Baltimore is averaging the seventh-fewest passing yards per game (213.3).
However, run defense on the road has been a real problem for the Titans (150.3 RYGP allowed), and that is a potentially significant trouble spot versus the Ravens.
Baltimore was surprisingly vulnerable to the run its own right Sunday night while giving up 121 rushing yards to New England’s Damien Harris. The Ravens are now giving up just over nine rushing yards per game compared to last season. They’ll need to tighten things up in short order with Derrick Henry on tap. The 2019 NFL rushing champ trampled Baltimore for 195 yards in last January’s AFC Divisional Round Game and has already eclipsed 100 yards on five occasions this season.
Despite Tennessee’s prior success and Baltimore’s loss Sunday night, the Ravens are currently comfortable () favorites.
Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) – 1 p.m. ET
The Eagles weren’t able to solve their multitude of problems during their Week 9 bye. Philadelphia continued to look out of sorts despite getting Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffery back from injury, dropping a 27-17 decision to the Giants. The Browns faced inclement weather for the second time in as many home games and emerged victorious this time around. Cleveland edged the Texans by a 10-7 score in another wind-swept afternoon at FirstEnergy Stadium.
The questions around Carson Wentz and his teammates continue to mount following their latest debacle. Philly has now gotten back many of its previously injured pieces, so a depleted roster is becoming increasingly less of an excuse. The Eagles are now 3-5-1 and having a particularly difficult time stopping the run (133.0 RYPG allowed). That doesn’t bode well against a Browns team that now has Nick Chubb back in the fold, and that saw both he and Kareem Hunt eclipse 100 yards Sunday versus the Texans.
The Browns’ defensive success Sunday has to be couched within the context of the heavily adverse weather conditions the game was played under. Houston couldn’t really get its passing game going as a result, helping to disguise Cleveland’s struggles against opposing air attacks. The Browns are giving up 252.2 passing yards per game. However, it’s worth noting both their home/road splits and the matchup lines up well for them versus the Eagles. Cleveland is giving up just 196.8 passing yards per home game and Wentz is completing a career-low 58.2 percent of his passes while already throwing a concerning 12 interceptions.
The Browns are currently modest () favorites at home.
New England Patriots (-2.5) at Houston Texans – 1 p.m. ET
The Patriots gave themselves and their fans a rare reason to smile during a difficult 2020 season, upsetting the visiting Ravens by a 23-17 margin Sunday night. The Texans had no such luck, with serious winds in Cleveland conspiring against Deshaun Watson and the offense in a 10-7 loss.
It remains to be seen if New England’s surprising Week 10 win ignites a strong stretch of play for the now 4-5 Patriots. Cam Newton is still having difficulty getting much going through the air, with the Pats averaging the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (194.8). However, the Damien Harris-led running game has been a strong point. The second-year back is now averaging 5.5 yards per carry and has a trio of 100-yard efforts in six games.
The matchup in Week 11 couldn’t line up better for him – the Texans just gave up a pair of 100-yard efforts to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt and are now surrendering an NFL-high 167.4 rushing yards per contest.
The Texans would undoubtedly love to establish more of a ground attack themselves, especially with a Patriots defense that’s often also been vulnerable to the run on tap. New England is giving up 129.2 rushing yards per game, but outside of Watson’s own improvisation, the Texans have often struggled to get either David or Duke Johnson going out of the backfield. If the former misses a second straight game with a concussion, Houston could be forced to turn even more to the pass against New England. That’s much less desirable, as the Patriots have allowed a modest 216.0 passing yards per game over the last three.
New England’s resurgent showing Sunday night and the Texans’ continued struggles combine to currently make the Patriots a () favorite.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-11) at Jacksonville Jaguars – 1 p.m. ET
The Steelers moved to 9-0 by impressively handling its business against an improved Bengals team coming off a bye. Pittsburgh progressively pulled away from Cincinnati with a pass-heavy attack, forging a 36-10 victory. The Jaguars nearly pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season, giving the host Packers much more trouble than they bargained for before falling by a narrow 24-20 score.
Pittsburgh is still playing far from perfect football despite its unblemished record. The Steelers are particularly having a difficult time stringing a running game together despite particularly favorable matchups the last two weeks against the Cowboys and Bengals. James Conner has gained a meager 58 yards on 22 carries during that span, and the Steelers offensive line is generating the sixth-fewest line yards per carry (3.90). The matchup against Jacksonville on the ground has gotten increasingly more difficult as the season has gone on, which means Ben Roethlisberger could be in for another heavy workload versus a Jags defense surrendering a robust 283.9 passing yards per contest.
The outlook is bleak for the Jaguars no matter where they turn against the Steelers. Gardner Minshew (thumb) has already been ruled out for this contest, leaving rookie Jake Luton in line for a third straight start. The Washington product has been reasonably solid while being thrust into the fire the last two games. Nevertheless, he’ll face his stiffest test yet in the form of a Steelers defense that’s giving up the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (211.3), leading the league in sacks (36) and ranking second in interceptions (11). Undrafted rookie star James Robinson also figures to have a difficult time helping keep that aggressive unit honest – Pittsburgh came into Week 10 allowing the second-fewest adjusted line yards per carry (3.30).
Given the disparity between the teams, it’s no surprise the Steelers are currently () favorites.
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team (-2) – 1 p.m. ET
The Bengals () fought hard in the first half of a Week 10 division battle against the Steelers. However, they got a taste of how far they still have to get to Pittsburgh’s level during the second half of the 36-10 loss. The WFT almost overcame a three-touchdown second-half deficit before falling to the Lions, 30-27, a game in which Alex Smith threw for a career-high 390 yards.
Cincinnati’s defensive challenge in Week 11 is a bit less daunting, but they’ll still tangle with an above-average unit. Washington is giving up the seventh-fewest total yards per game (320.7), including the fewest passing yards per contest (194.7). They’ve also been a staunch run defense at home, yielding just 115.8 rushing yards per contest. Joe Mixon (foot) is now on IR, which would leave Cincy with a pedestrian ground attack consisting of Gio Bernard and Samaje Perine. The strength of Washington’s secondary is also a potentially bad matchup for the Bengals’ pass-happy ways on offense.
In contrast, the Football Team is poised for a potentially fruitful afternoon on offense against a Bengals defense giving up 398.2 total yards per game. That number is partly the byproduct of Cincinnati allowing 265.1 passing yards and 133.1 rushing yards per contest. All three figures land them in the bottom 10 of the league. Smith’s prolific day Sunday and Antonio Gibson’s pair of rushing scores both support the notion Washington could enjoy sustained success versus a defense ranked in the latter half of the NFL in drive success rate allowed (.763).
Saturday, 11/22 Update: Mixon is now on injured reserve, and the line has progressively moved from an open of Bengals -1 at its pre-Week 10 open to 1.5 in favor of Washington as of late Saturday night.
Detroit Lions (-3) at Carolina Panthers – 1 p.m. ET
The Lions almost blew a 24-3 third-quarter lead against the Washington Football Team in Week 10 before escaping with a 30-27 victory on a 59-yard game-winning field goal by Matt Prater. The Panthers were forced to play another contest with Christian McCaffrey (shoulder) and ended up getting doubled up by the Buccaneers, 46-23.
Detroit may have squeezed out its fourth win of the season Sunday, but that doesn’t cover its problems on defense. The Lions will check into this contest giving up 400.0 yards per game. Both their work against the pass (258.4 YPG, 7.2 YPA allowed) and run (141.6 YPG, 5.07 RB YPC allowed) has been suspect. The Lions are also tied with the Raiders for the highest drive success rate allowed (.793) while the Panthers rank in the top 10 in that category on offense (.772). Whether McCaffrey can return for this contest will naturally be pivotal to Carolina’s ceiling in this game. However, if Mike Davis is forced to fill in for his star teammate again, the matchup certainly works in his favor as both a rusher and receiver out of the backfield.
The Panthers’ lopsided loss Sunday was actually a rarity for them despite it being Carolina’s seventh defeat overall. Five of their previous six stumbles had come by single digits. Teddy Bridgewater has developed strong chemistry with his top wideout trio of Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel, which should bode well versus Detroit. However, the defense has been up and down and will especially have its work cut out for it if the Lions’ Kenny Golladay is able to return from a two-game absence due to a hip injury. The Panthers’ significant Week 10 leaks against the run game — which included a 98-yard touchdown run by Ronald Jones on the way to a 192-yard day – would spell trouble if they persist against impressive rookie D’Andre Swift. The 2020 second-round pick totaled 149 scrimmage yards in what was his first NFL start Sunday.
Sunday, 11/22 Update: Teddy Bridgewater is inactive for the Panthers Sunday and Carolina will give the start to PJ Walker. McCaffrey has also been ruled out, as have Golladay (hip), Danny Amendola (hip) and Swift (concussion) on the Lions’ end. Carolina’s situation has made more of an impact on bettors, as the Panthers went from 2.5-point home favorites at the open to () underdogs.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3.5) – 1 p.m. ET
The Falcons were off in Week 10 after toppling the Broncos by a 34-27 margin in Week 9. The Saints toppled the 49ers by a 27-13 score Sunday, but Drew Brees concerningly suffered multiple rib fractures and a collapsed lung on a violent sack in the first half and appears set to miss 2-to-3 weeks at minimum.
Atlanta has played like a completely different team under interim coach Raheem Morris than it did under the departed Dan Quinn. Atlanta is 3-1 since Morris returned and is just a miracle one-point win by the Lions away from a perfect 4-0. The Falcons still have occasional breakdowns on defense and will be challenged against a Saints team that finally has the pass-catching portion of its air attack healthy.
However, the big question this week will be how quickly Taysom Hill can hit his stride. In a bit of a shocker, the Saints said Hill would start over Jameis Winston against Atlanta. The Falcons are giving up the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game (99.7) and also boast top-10 figures in adjusted line yards (3.71) and RB yards (3.60) allowed per carry.
Even with Brees’ now-confirmed absence and the Falcons coming in off a bye, New Orleans is still currently favored by (), although the line has shrunk by three points since its initial open as of late Saturday night.
Saturday, 11/21 Update: Calvin Ridley is off the injury report for Atlanta and will start Sunday.
Miami Dolphins (-4) at Denver Broncos – 4:05 p.m. ET
The Dolphins continued to impressively ascend in the standings during Tua Tagovaila’s second start Sunday, notching an impressive 29-21 win over the Chargers. Meanwhile, the Broncos’ young quarterback arguably took a step back against a division rival. Denver fell to the Raiders by a 37-12 score, a defeat in which Drew Lock threw four interceptions.
Not only did Tagovailoa put together another mistake-free performance in Week 10, he wasn’t the only rookie to perform well on offense for Miami. Undrafted first-year back Salvon Ahmed acquitted himself well in his first start, gaining 85 yards and scoring a touchdown on 21 rushes. Ahmed has likely earned himself another week as the bell-cow back even if Matt Breida returns from a hamstring injury in Week 11 and will get a crack at a Broncos defense that’s now giving up 128.8 rushing yards per game after surrendering a combined 193 yards and four touchdowns to Josh Jacobs and Devontae Booker in Week 10.
Lock is faced with what may be one of the worst possible matchups for his notoriously inaccurate passing. The Dolphins defense seems to get better by the week, particularly against the pass. Miami is giving up the eighth-lowest completion percentage (62.8), has snagged eight interceptions and is yielding the fourth-fewest passing yards per road game (194.5). Lock is now dealing with a rib strain and is already completing an unsightly 55.0 percent of his throws while already having thrown 10 interceptions in seven games. Denver’s best path to success may therefore come on the ground with the duo of Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay – the Fins are allowing 149.5 rushing yards per road game, as well as 4.63 RB yards per carry.
In a sign of the growing notion coach Brian Flores’ squad is for real, the Dolphins are 3.5-point road favorites as of late Saturday night.
Saturday, 11/21 Update: Lock was questionable earlier in the week with a rib injury, but Saturday reports indicate he’ll start Sunday.
New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers (-10) – 4:05 p.m. ET
The Jets (+8.5) had what might have been an ill-timed bye in Week 10, considering they put on one of their best offensive performances of their woeful season in a narrow Week 9 loss to the Patriots. The Chargers had a disappointing cross-country trip to South Florida, falling to the rising Dolphins by a 29-21 score.
Sam Darnold will miss a second consecutive game for the Jets due to the AC joint sprain he’s currently nursing, but Joe Flacco offered reason for optimism with his Week 9 performance. The former Raven has had plenty of extra practice time to continue getting acclimated to a receiving corps that has some real upside when healthy. Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims can all threaten defenses in different ways, making up for an anemic running game that’s managing just 98.9 rushing yards per contest.
The Chargers took a step back on offense against the Dolphins’ rapidly improving defense Sunday, with rookie quarterback Justin Herbert throwing for a career-low 187 yards. However, the matchup works much more in his favor in Week 11. The Jets are allowing a bloated 294.5 passing yards per road game, along with the fourth-highest average yards per attempt (7.9). That dovetails well for Herbert, who already has 27 completions of greater than 20 yards and four 300-yard performances in eight games. On the ground, Los Angeles will continue without Justin Jackson (IR-knee), although the trio of Kalen Ballage, Joshua Kelley and Troymaine Pope could make inroads against a New York front giving up 120.9 rushing yards per game.
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) – 4:25 p.m. ET
The Packers had a humbling experience at Lambeau Field versus a feisty Jaguars team in Week 10. Green Bay escaped with a 24-20 win but continued to have trouble slowing down the run. The Colts recorded an impressive divisional win Thursday night to kick off the slate, manhandling the Titans on the road by a 34-17 score.
Despite the more-difficult-than-expected time against the Jags, Aaron Rodgers continued his MVP campaign with 325 yards and three total touchdowns. The future Hall of Famer now has a 26:3 TD:INT, yet he’ll face what could arguably be his toughest test of the season. The Colts are giving up an NFC-low 198.7 passing yards per game, including an NFL-low 175.5 per home contest. Indy is also tied for second-most interceptions (11) and is giving up the fifth-lowest completion percentage (62.2). The matchup for Aaron Jones won’t be any easier, considering the Colts are also the AFC’s stingiest run defense on a rushing-yards-per-game basis (91.8) and in RB yards per carry allowed (3.17).
The Colts offense sets up better, especially if the injuries to Packers starting cornerbacks Jaire Alexander (concussion) and Kevin King (quadriceps) linger into this contest. Green Bay’s strength has been pass defense, as the Pack has yielded a respectable 225.1 passing yards per contest. Then, Indy’s three-headed backfield of Jordan Wilkins, Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines have a chance to wreak some havoc versus a defensive front that entered Week 10 allowing 4.63 adjusted line yards and 4.55 RB yards per carry before yielding 109 yards at 4.7 yards per attempt to James Robinson.
In what shapes up as one of the week’s marquee games, the Colts are currently favored by ().
Saturday, 11/21 Update: Allen Lazard has been activated off injured reserve for the Packers and could play in Sunday’s contest.
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-7) – 4:25 p.m. ET
The Cowboys () took a much-needed bye in Week 10 after giving the Steelers all they could handle before dropping a 24-19 decision in Week 9. The Vikings were able to notch their third consecutive victory with a hard-fought 19-13 win over the Bears on Monday night.
The big question for Dallas coming out of the bye will be the identity of the man under center. Andy Dalton has now cleared both the concussion and COVID-19 protocols he was subject to. Garrett Gilbert did a serviceable job in an unenviable position against Pittsburgh’s aggressive defense in Week 9, but early-week reports point to Dalton reclaiming his starting job. The former Bengal didn’t inspire much confidence at all in that role before being sidelined against Washington, but perhaps the time off and extra practice time over the layoff will lead to a crisper performance. The matchup against Minnesota’s secondary has generally been a favorable one this season and Dalton will have his dangerous trio of wideouts to work with.
The Vikings turned to the air more than usual in Week 10 with Dalvin Cook frequently stymied by the Bears, and rookie Justin Jefferson turned in another one of his stellar performances (8-135). Adam Thielen also hauled in a pair of touchdown grabs, but with the Cowboys sporting one of the league’s weakest run defenses, Cook could take center stage again in Week 11. Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer prefers to win with the running game and defense whenever possible, and this game could well set up perfectly in that regard.
Given the recent state of both teams, it’s of little surprise the Vikings are currently () home favorites.
Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) at Las Vegas Raiders – 8:20 p.m. ET
The Chiefs took their bye in Week 10 after squeezing out a narrow 33-31 win over the Panthers in Week 9. The Raiders improved to 6-3 with a convincing home win over another AFC West mate in the Denver Broncos, which they toppled by a 37-12 score.
KC will come in rested and likely fired up for this revenge match against the division-rival Raiders, which upended them by a 40-32 score at Arrowhead Stadium in their first meeting of 2020. The Chiefs have added Le’Veon Bell since that contest, although the former Pro Bowler hasn’t made an impact yet in his three games with Kansas City. Sammy Watkins should also have a good chance of returning from a four-game absence due to a hamstring injury for this game, which would give Patrick Mahomes his most complete offensive arsenal of the season. The Raiders should make for viable targets, considering they come in ranked in the bottom 10 while allowing 377.6 total yards per game.
The Raiders got their running game going at a season-best clip versus the Broncos and will have a good chance to keep the momentum going against Kansas City. The Chiefs have surrendered the fourth-most rushing yards per game (138.4), including the third most per road contest (150.5). Josh Jacobs exceeded 100 yards for only the second time this season, although both instances have come in the last three contests. Jacobs is still averaging just 3.8 yards per rush, but the 4.61 adjusted line yards and 4.52 RB yards per carry KC is allowing supports the notion he could continue improving on that number. The ground game could hold the key to Las Vegas keeping this close, and not just by keeping the ball out of Mahomes’ hands – the Chiefs are also allowing an AFC-low 180.5 passing yards per road contest.
In a testament to the strides Vegas has made, the Chiefs are what could be considered, by their standards, relatively modest () road favorites.
Monday, Nov. 23
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) – 8:15 p.m. ET
The Rams, particularly their defense, served notice to the rest of the league by impressively shutting down Russell Wilson and his high-powered offensive attack in Week 10. Los Angeles toppled Seattle by a 23-16 score while recording two interceptions, six sacks and holding Wilson without a touchdown pass for the first time all season. For their part, the Buccaneers managed to bounce back from their nightmarish 38-3 loss to the Saints in Week 9, doubling up the Panthers by a 46-23 score.
Los Angeles displayed excellent run/pass balance against Seattle. The backfield trio of Malcolm Brown, Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers combined for 99 rushing yards and three TDs, while Jared Goff eclipsed 300 yards for the fourth time this season. The matchup against the Bucs defense is considerably more daunting, as Carolina found out Sunday. Tampa Bay is allowing the third-fewest total yards (300.3), 10th-fewest passing yards (223.7) and fewest rushing yards (76.6) per game. The Bucs also currently set the pace leaguewide with 12 interceptions and adjusted sack rate (10.6 percent).
The Bucs offense doesn’t exactly have a layup on its hands, either. The Rams actually check in ahead of Tampa Bay with an NFC-low 296.4 yards per game allowed. They’re also giving up the third-fewest passing yards per contest (199.7) and the lowest yards per attempt (5.7). Tom Brady amassed another four touchdowns against Carolina and is playing at a near-elite level most weeks, but Los Angeles’ aggressive approach on defense has already produced eight interceptions and 31 sacks. Therefore, coach Bruce Arians may well opt to try and keep L.A. off balance with the run. Not only have the Rams surrendered the eighth-most adjusted line yards per carry (4.68), but Ronald Jones is coming off a career-best 192-yard rushing day in Week 10.
In a game that could be one of the closest of the week, the Buccaneers are currently () home favorites.
Lookahead line vs. current spread
|Matchup||Lookahead line||Current spread|
|Arizona at Seattle||SEA -5.5||SEA -3|
|Atlanta at New Orleans||NO -6.5||NO -3.5|
|Cincinnati at Washington||CIN -1||WAS -2|
|Detroit at Carolina||CAR -2.5||DET -3|
|New England at Houston||HOU -2.5||NE -2.5|
|Philadelphia at Cleveland||CLE -1.5||CLE -2.5|
|Pittsburgh at Jacksonville||PIT -9.5||PIT -11|
|Tennessee at Baltimore||BAL -6.5||BAL -6|
|Miami at Denver||MIA -1.5||MIA -4|
|NY Jets at LA Chargers||LAC -10||LAC -10|
|Dallas at Minnesota||MIN -8.5||MIN -7|
|Green Bay at Indianapolis||GB -1.5||IND -1.5|
|Kansas City at Las Vegas||KC -7||KC -7.5|
|LA Rams at Tampa Bay||TB -3.5||TB -4.5|