NFL Week 11 Implied Team Totals: Buy Low On Bills?

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on November 16, 2022 - Last Updated on November 17, 2022
week 11 implied team totals

Each week during the NFL season, TheLines will compile a list of implied team totals. In other words, NFL Week 11 implied team totals are how many points each team is expected to score this week, based on simple math with the spread and over/under.

Readers can make use of these team totals in a variety of ways for NFL Week 11 and beyond. Those ways include handicapping props, making fantasy decisions, etc.

All lines come from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Nov. 15, rounded to the nearest whole number.

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NFL Week 11 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalOpponentH/ASpreadTotal
Chiefs29ChargersAway-750.5
Ravens28PanthersHome-1243.5
Falcons27BearsHome-350
Bills26BrownsHome-843.5
Eagles26ColtsAway-6.545
49ers26CardinalsMexico City-843.5
Giants25LionsHome-346
Bears24FalconsAway350
Cowboys24VikingsAway-147.5
Vikings23CowboysHome147.5
Packers23TitansHome-342
Bengals23SteelersAway-541
Saints22RamsHome-3.538.5
Lions22GiantsAway346
Commanders22TexansAway-3.540.5
Chargers22ChiefsHome750.5
Broncos22RaidersHome-2.541.5
Patriots21JetsHome-338.5
Raiders20BroncosAway2.541.5
Titans20PackersAway342
Colts19EaglesHome6.545
Texans19CommandersHome3.540.5
Cardinals1849ersMexico City843.5
Browns18BillsAway843.5
Rams18SaintsAway3.538.5
Jets18PatriotsAway338.5
Steelers18BengalsHome541
Panthers16RavensAway1243.5

Highest NFL Week 11 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalDraftKings Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Chiefs2928.5-115-105
Ravens2827.5-115-105
Falcons2726.5-120+100

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have averaged exactly 27 points in non-garbage games against these Chargers since 2020.

Chargers coach Brandon Staley has done a good job at least somewhat limiting this offense, which makes sense since he was among the pioneers of the popular two-high approach. That scheme has forced Patrick Mahomes to adapt and use shorter throws, but his effectiveness doing so has improved this year.

Look no further than Week 2 of this season. The Chiefs posted a somewhat pedestrian 6.3 YPA passing, though they gashed the Chargers on the ground. They only managed 20 points on offense, though a defensive TD pushed them to 27.

A dynamic new threat has emerged as of Week 10 with Kadarius Toney showing out. Particularly with JuJu Smith-Schuster potentially sidelined, that looms as important for the Chiefs going forward.

Atlanta Falcons

The Bears have become perhaps the worst defense in the league. While other teams rank below them in metrics like EPA/play where they’re “just” 29th, remember that Chicago has traded away perhaps its two best defenders in Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn.

It’s perhaps not surprising then that the Bears have allowed a disgusting 38.3 PPG over their past three contests.

Facing the Bears could be the salve the Falcons need. Marcus Mariota’s play has fallen off in recent weeks as he hasn’t stayed composed under pressure. He has repeatedly flung the ball into harm’s way. But if the Falcons can get back to a more run-oriented style, perhaps Mariota can return to his early efficiency. The Bears are a little better against the run but still rate below average there.

Lowest NFL Week 11 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalDraftKings Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Panthers1615.5-110-110
Steelers1817.5-110-110
Jets1817.5+100-120
Rams18N/AN/AN/A
Browns1817.5+105-125
Cardinals1816.5-125+105

LA Rams

About the only thing the Rams had going for them on offense this year has been Cooper Kupp catching passes from Matt Stafford. Well, at least one side of the equation if not both will be missing this week against a hot-and-cold Saints defense. Kupp won’t play this week or potentially at all the rest of the year after spraining his ankle. And Stafford remains in concussion protocol as of Tuesday afternoon.

John Wolford brings no pedigree to the table and was pretty bad against a weak Cardinals defense on Sunday. He managed just 4.8 YPA dropping back and turned the ball over twice, adding another fumble for good measure. His only touchdown came in garbage time.

There’s now no part of this offense that looks above average with the possible exception of Stafford. But what can he really do given his surroundings?

New York Jets

To say Zach Wilson has struggled against Bill Belichick’s defenses would be putting it mildly. Over three meetings with the mastermind, he has managed to complete just 53.6% of his passes with 2 TDs and 7 INTs while taking seven sacks. Unsurprisingly, the Jets have an 0-3 record in these games, although Mike White played most of one of the losses.

Belichick’s legendary track record against young QBs backs this small sample data up. The Patriots have been outperformed by the Jets in terms of both record and DVOA (if not by scoring differential). Yet, they sit as home favorites coming off the bye.

Certainly, the Jets have gotten a ton of mileage out of their defense. But, Wilson and Co. have their work cut out for them here on the road, when they have one of the most toothless passing attacks in the NFL.

Other Notable Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalDraftKings Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Bills2626.5-105-115
Bears2423.5-115-105

Buffalo Bills

It’s a rare week indeed when the Bills don’t grace the highest totals section of this article. Here, they face a Browns defense that has been mostly abused by opposing offenses. Despite having an abundance of talent on that side of the ball, the Browns rank ahead of only the Lions in terms of EPA/play allowed, a truly shocking result this far into the season.

So, an elite offense — with Josh Allen admittedly banged up but playing — will face off against a porous defense. One that just got shredded by a high-volume passing attack in the Dolphins. In fact, the only really impressive game the Browns defense has played was in a huge spot at home against the Bengals earlier this year.

So, why is the total sitting in the low 40s and why are the Bills not expected to reach 30 points?

Simple: the weather. Early forecasts for Sunday in Buffalo call for snow and 15 mph winds. Still, that can always change, and snowy weather does not always equal a defensive battle. This looks like a potentially good (and rare) spot to buy in low on the Bills offense.

Chicago Bears

Justin Fields has announced himself as an offensive force in a major way over the past month or so. The Bears still can’t win any games because their defense stinks, but nobody can blame Fields for the repeated Ls. Despite an extremely obvious lack of talent around him, Fields has lugged the Bears offense to the seventh-best EPA/play since Week 7. He has rushed for 467 yards in that time at a clip of 9.3 per attempt.

That’s incredible work.

The Falcons got destroyed by the Panthers running game last week and have a bottom-five defense by both DVOA and EPA/play. Fields should find success once again, and another shootout is expected with one of the highest totals of the week.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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