NFL Week 11 Implied Team Totals: Can Bucs Offense Get Healthy And On Track?

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on November 21, 2021
NFL Week 11 implied team totals

Each week during the NFL season, TheLines will compile a list of implied team totals. In other words, NFL Week 11 implied team totals are how many points each team is expected to score this week, based on simple math with the spread and over/under.

Readers can make use of these team totals in a variety of ways for NFL Week 11 and beyond. Those ways include handicapping props, making fantasy decisions, etc.

All lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of Nov. 16, rounded to the nearest whole number.

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NFL Week 11 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalOpponentLocationSpreadOver/Under
Buccaneers31GiantsHome-1150
Chiefs30CowboysHome-2.556.5
Bills29ColtsHome-7.550
Titans28TexansHome-10.544.5
Cowboys27ChiefsAway2.556.5
Patriots27FalconsAway-747.5
Browns27LionsHome-1044.5
Packers26VikingsAway-2.549
Cardinals26SeahawksAway-2.549.5
Chargers26SteelersHome-647
Ravens26BearsAway-645.5
49ers26JaguarsAway-6.546
Bengals25RaidersAway-149
Raiders24BengalsHome149
Seahawks24CardinalsHome2.549.5
Dolphins24JetsAway-345
Vikings23PackersHome2.549
Eagles23SaintsHome-1.543.5
Panthers23Football TeamHome-3.543
Colts21BillsAway7.550
Steelers21ChargersAway647
Jets21DolphinsHome345
Saints21EaglesAway1.543.5
Falcons20PatriotsHome747.5
Football Team20PanthersAway3.543
Jaguars2049ersHome6.546
Giants20BuccaneersAway1150
Bears20RavensHome645.5
Lions17BrownsAway1044.5
Texans17TitansAway10.544.5

Highest NFL Week 11 implied team totals

TeamImplied Team TotalFanDuel Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Buccaneers3130.5-106-116
Chiefs3029.5-116-106
Bills2929.5-116-106
Titans2828-110-110

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

You might be surprised to find the Bucs as the highest implied scorer this week after Washington mostly shut them down.

At least one thing does look sustainable from that game, from the standpoint of contributing to Tampa going under. The passing attack has lost some of its juice with Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown on the shelf plus Chris Godwin operating at less than 100%. Keep an eye on the injury report this week before bombing anything involving an over on Tampa.

However, the Bucs just lend themselves strongly towards overs with their style of play. They’ve passed more frequently than anyone in football this year. The only teams within a few percentage points of them, the Jets and Dolphins, do so out of necessity from trailing.

And on the other end, teams pass against the Bucs more frequently than any other team, likely due to the impossibility of running against Vita Vea.

There again, though, injury may have changed the calculus. Vea looks likely to miss some time. If the Giants can get anything going on the ground for a change, that may drag this game more into the mud than other Tampa contests.

Kansas City Chiefs

Have the Chiefs awoken from their month-long slumber?

Somewhat lost in the furor over their ugly stretch of football, this remained one of the best offenses in the league for the first six weeks.

They looked like the vintage Chiefs against the Raiders, completely destroying a defense that had previously played solid football and was pressuring the QB at an elite rate. The scariest thing might have been that Patrick Mahomes still missed some pretty open deep balls. If he cleans that up, look out. Certainly, the offensive line and the scheme looked much improved.

That’s bad news for the Cowboys. Putting Mahomes under pressure has hamstrung this offense, but Dallas’ two best pass rushers by far have hit IR. This matchup has come at a pretty poor time for them.

If the Chiefs’ return to form sticks, they should score a bundle here. The total is one of the highest of the year.

Buffalo Bills

One of the most intriguing teams to track going forward on offense will be the Buffalo Bills. We’ve raised the alarm in this space about this offense the past two weeks, and things finally got ugly against the Jags.

Did they bounce back to form against the Jets? Or was this yet another point total bloated by a hail of opponent turnovers and short fields?

A little of both as the Jets gave it away five times but the Bills also posted 9.1 YPP.

The Bills have an especially interesting Week 11 matchup that should give us a strong indicator of this team’s current level of offensive ability. That’s because the Colts are built a lot like the Jaguars — very stout against the run (third in EPA/play) but weak against the pass (24th in EPA/play). The Jaguars covered up that weakness schematically, with volume of bodies, and tackling.

Indy would seem able to implement a similar plan, so we’ll see if they do and whether it works.

Lowest NFL Week 11 implied team totals

TeamImplied Team TotalFanDuel Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Falcons2020-110-110
Football Team2019.5-118-104
Jaguars20TBDTBDTBD
Giants2019-108-112
Bears2019.5-118-104
Lions17TBDTBDTBD
Texans1716.5-116-106

Detroit Lions

Results-wise, the Lions improved their standing in the league on Sunday as they broke their losing streak with a tie.

In terms of process, though, this team still looks as poor as ever, particularly on the offensive end. Sure, the weather kind of sucked and the Steelers have a tough defense. But, 77 net passing yards? It just doesn’t get any worse than that in 2021, unless you’re Justin Fields facing the Browns.

They got some work done on the ground against Pittsburgh, but can that really continue when there’s no threat of downfield passing? The advanced metrics give the Browns run D mixed reviews but this is a smart coaching staff and the team should come out fired up after the Patriots embarrassed them in shocking fashion.

If you are interested in the under, best to get down sooner than later. Bad weather — both wind and rain — is in the forecast once again.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta has somehow put together a 4-5 record but they rank dead last in DVOA. Whatever the opposite of a sleeping giant is, that’s probably a good term to use to describe the Falcons.

They just got pasted by the Cowboys’ middling defense, scoring all of three points.

What’s worse, they lost breakout star playmaker Cordarelle Patterson to injury. Previously mainly a return specialist, Patterson has come out of nowhere and crushed it in a hybrid WR/RB role. He has almost 800 yards and 7 TDs.

With Calvin Ridley already out to tend to his mental health, the Falcons have run extremely thin on playmakers.

Bill Belichick is well-known for his prowess at limiting the opposition’s top weapon. He’ll have his crosshairs on TE Kyle Pitts, who has had a quiet few weeks as teams begin to focus their coverages on him. Expect a ton of Olamide Zaccheaus targets, which bodes ill indeed.

Chicago Bears

One team low on the totem that possesses some potential is the Chicago Bears.

Rookie QB Justin Fields showed real strides against the Steelers. The maligned rookie garnered PFF’s highest QB grade of the week. He faced a nasty Steelers pass rush and played his best game of the season.

If he’s turning the corner, he gets a decent spot to show it here as the Ravens have fielded one of the most disappointing defenses of 2021. He’ll face a much different style here as the Ravens have blitzed more than all but two teams.

Surprisingly for this time of year, the weather looks pretty clear in Chicago. Coming off the bye and having surpassed 20 points in two straight games, the arrow might be pointing up for the Bears offense.

Other Notable Implied Team Totals

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts had a pretty uninspiring offensive performance against the Jags but managed to grind out the win. Now, they get a much tougher assignment against the Bills in cold weather on the road.

Is the Bills defense for real? The metrics scream yes with both EPA and DVOA rating them country miles ahead of the second-place teams. However, they’ve compiled their stats against a comically easy slate of opposing offenses. Only the Chiefs and Titans field respectable units among the Bills’ opposition.

DVOA is supposed to take this into account, but it’s something to consider nonetheless.

Run defense has been a concern in years past, and the Colts should test them this week. The market seems remarkably low on this group, one which had scored 30+ in four straight before the Jacksonville snoozer.

Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson had perhaps the worst game of his career last week as the Seahawks got completely throttled by a potentially ascending Packers defense. The Hawks posted a bagel on the scoreboard and Wilson managed a QBR of 13.

DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett got 49 yards combined on 16 targets. Wilson must do better connecting with them.

How much of his struggles came from rust, how much came from lingering issues with his broken finger and how much can we attribute to the Packers defense that has suddenly clamped down on three straight good offenses?

We should find out this weekend against a Cardinals defense that, despite the hiccup against Carolina, still rates well in the metrics.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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