Eli’s NFL Week 11 Best Bets: Can Bears, Rams Cash In Against The Spread?
With NFL Week 11 odds ready to kick off, this article will assist bettors with price discovery and handicapping point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals across NFL betting sites. In particular, Lions vs. Bears and Rams vs. Seahawks stood out — juxtaposed with my betting model. With that in mind, let’s examine my NFL Week 11 best bets for these games involving NFC North odds and NFC West odds.
bet: Bears to lose by eight points or fewer (or win outright)
Some bettors may be unfamiliar with the aforementioned term, price discovery. The process commences when wagers are made on the opening spread or total. Early action is used to adjust the number. Sportsbooks may follow the same script of operators deemed “market makers,” tinkering with their prices because a polarizing competitor shifted their own. Needless to say, liability tolerance (or lack thereof) could be enough to modify the odds as well.
Regarding the Lions’ odds, they were 7.5-point favorites on the look-ahead line before reopening at -9.5. Shortly after, they were bet up to -10. Nevertheless, the number came back down with Chicago quarterback Justin Fields set to return from a thumb injury. Let’s delve into why the Bears’ odds deserve your attention in this spot.
Sell High On Division Leader
While Detroit has preserved a two-game NFC North cushion, there’s plenty at stake with Minnesota on its heels. Dan Campbell’s team is also in the mix for the No. 1 overall seed come the playoffs. Motivation won’t be an issue, even against the 3-7 Bears.
However, the Lions have ultimately reached their peak in the market. There’s no doubting the offense, accruing the eighth-most EPA per play. But their pass defense ranks No. 19 in dropback success rate allowed. For context, a play is considered successful if it produces at least 50% of the necessary yards on first down, 70% on second down, or 100% on third or fourth down.
The losses of safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson and cornerback Emannuel Mosley have left glaring holes in their secondary. Whether Detroit has faced subpar or above-average QBs, this unit has consistently surrendered proficient scoring outputs. They let up 38 points to Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert, 24 to Bryce Young, and 20 to Jordan Love.
Bears’ Offense Has A Pulse?
Fields hasn’t showcased dependability in his own right. His adjusted EPA per play and success rate are among the league’s worst. That said, his turnover-worthy play rate is 4.2 percentage points less than rookie Tyson Bagent. He’s also tallied an above-average Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE). Based on the types of throws a QB attempts, this metric evaluates how many more (or fewer) passes one completes, relative to the projection.
Therefore, the Bears’ offensive ceiling is higher with the duel-threat signal caller under center after missing four-plus games. Additionally, Chicago’s offensive line boasts the sixth-ranked pass-block win rate. That sets up well against Aidan Hutchinson and the Lions’ defensive front, considering their top-10 pressure rate.
If Fields demonstrates any growth from his time on the sidelines, the Bears should find a way to keep up with Jared Goff & Co. With both offenses possessing a bottom-12 adjusted pace, that also plays to the underdog’s advantage.
|Offense Ranking OFF RNK||19th||2nd|
|Defense Ranking DEF RNK||9th||10th|
|Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG||323.3||405.5|
|Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG||318.5||318.8|
|Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG||185.6||268.5|
|Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG||1.8||1.5|
If you weren’t able to nab Bears +9, I’d bet them down to +7.5. Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord to receive instant alerts whenever I place a wager. Head over to the #roles server to enroll in the push notifications.
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bet: rams (+1) to win outright (or lose by a point to push)
Like the Bears, the market has crept toward the Rams’ odds throughout the week. The Seahawks’ odds opened at -2.5 before the line shortened to -1. While an increase in two-point conversion attempts has made the spread of two slightly more valuable, either line is still closer to a dead number than not.
Los Angeles With Situational Edge
The line movement correlates with the news that Rams QB Matthew Stafford will play after spraining the ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb in Week 8. The 35-year-old veteran evidently benefited from the bye week. The offense should experience positive regression, ranking No. 26 in EPA per play over its last two games. One of them came with the substandard Brett Rypien at the helm.
Pete Carroll’s defense primarily uses a Cover 3 scheme, which limits explosive passing plays. In fact, no unit has run more zone concepts than Seattle this season. Stafford was hyper-effective against it, compiling 8.8 yards per attempt (YPA) in the Week 1 upset win. He didn’t even have Pro Bowl wideout Cooper Kupp at his disposal.
Dating back to 2021, Kupp has generated a 30% target share and target per route run versus this look. Granted, Seattle rookie nickelback Devon Witherspoon has emerged as one of the NFL’s top coverage corners. He should see his fair share of Kupp, yet Seattle’s secondary has struggled collectively, yielding an above-average EPA per dropback and passing success rate.
That ties in with the Seahawks notching the league’s widest gap in plays per game on offense and defense (-8.8). Moreover, Geno Smith has taken a significant step back, manufacturing the 13th-lowest adjusted EPA per play among qualified QBs. After Seattle’s down-to-the-wire victory over Washington in Week 10, Los Angeles has a clear-cut rest advantage.
Couple that with this contest representing a look-ahead spot, as the Seahawks may have their attention on the massive divisional game versus the 49ers on Thanksgiving. Expect the Rams to sweep the regular-season series, as they look to snap their three-game skid.
|Offense Ranking OFF RNK||21st||17th|
|Defense Ranking DEF RNK||22nd||16th|
|Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG||317.6||340.6|
|Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG||348.5||331.2|
|Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG||221.8||226.6|
|Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG||1.2||1.1|
Depending on when you check out this article, Los Angeles may become a favorite. I’d play them up to -1. Good luck with your NFL Week 11 best bets.
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