It’s been a tough season for them, but teaser bets remain a popular option with many NFL bettors. But, you must use caution when selecting which teams you’ll tease, as you can’t win long term without a sound strategy. At TheLines, we’ll go over each week’s NFL slate to see which teams fit best in teasers. Today, we look at options for NFL Week 10 teasers.
Week 9 teaser legs did extremely well. If you played teasers, you probably showed a profit since the teasable numbers went 3-1, with the top options going 2-1. Only the Saints failed to come home in an extremely lackluster performance on Monday Night Football.
Be sure to go over our primer on teaser bets here. It’s imperative that you understand what to look for, from the numbers to the sportsbook juice being paid. Click on the odds anywhere below to bet now.
The Best NFL Week 10 Teasers
While several games fall into teaser territory for Week 10, only half of them look like premium options.
Broncos (+2.5) At Titans
One couldn’t ask for much more in an NFL Week 10 teaser than an underdog in a game with a minuscule 36.5 total. Even by 2022 standards, that’s a very low level of scoring expectation. Probably rightfully so, given these two teams’ offensive success levels so far.
The Titans in particular look like a sinkhole on that end as long as Malik Willis continues taking snaps. He has totaled 135 gross passing yards in his two starts. The Broncos defense should eat him alive. Ryan Tannehill has logged a limited Wednesday practice and may return, but even if he does, how close to 100% will he be after spraining his ankle? Injury analyst Will Carroll described Tannehill as “nearly immobile.”
Even if Russell Wilson scuffles here off the bye, the Broncos top-rated defense (No. 2 by EPA/play) should serve to keep this close.
Saints (+1.5) At Steelers
After weeks of mostly solid play, Andy Dalton fell apart against the Ravens on Monday. However, in the aggregate, he’s been pretty good, tallying a top-10 ranking in EPA+CPOE composite. By that metric, he’s well ahead of the likes of Tom Brady, Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers and Justin Herbert to name just a few.
If he can get back to that level of play, the Saints should definitely stay close (at the very least) to a pretty bad Steelers team, even on the road and with Pittsburgh off a bye. Note that the Steelers do get TJ Watt back, most likely.
However, young QB Kenny Pickett has the league’s worst INT% (4.8) by some margin. And the Saints’ net yards per play figure of +0.6 belies their poor record thus far.
Cardinals (+1.5) At Rams
This didn’t look like a teaser spot early in the week with the Cardinals opening as high as +4 early in the week following yet another defeat against the Seahawks. However, early indications paint Matthew Stafford as a question mark after potentially sustaining a concussion and landing himself in the protocols.
The line has correspondingly crashed. The total has crashed with it, moving into even juicier teaser territory.
Backup QB John Wolford didn’t show much in 2020 when given the chance to spell an injured Stafford. Even if he does play well, PFF’s bottom-five rated pass blocking unit figures to undermine his efforts. And considering the only thing keeping the Rams offense somewhat afloat is chemistry between Stafford and Cooper Kupp, this offense could sink to new lows.
Other Potential NFL Week 10 Teasers
Panthers (+2.5) Vs. Falcons
Thursday Night Football brings a rematch of a game from just a few weeks back. If it plays out anything like that 37-34 shootout from Oct. 30, then this is one to avoid from a teaser standpoint. Shootouts bring more variance than we like in our teaser plays.
Potentially windy and rainy weather has brought the total down to an enticing low, thought.
Another thing that brings uncertainty here is a fluid situation with the Panthers QBs. PJ Walker fell on his face against the Bengals after two weeks of resurgent play. But, he did shred the Falcons before for 8.8 YPA. And ace CB AJ Terrell remains out. Still, Walker’s wide range of outcomes and potential to give way to Baker Mayfield make this an iffy teaser play.
Seahawks (+2.5) Vs. Buccaneers
Another game with a few variables that throw a wrench into teaser plans. Mostly, it’s anyone’s guess how either team will handle the long trek to Germany. The Seahawks in particular have a haul from the West Coast.
Mostly, though, this comes down to the number. After opening closer to a pick’em, Geno Smith’s squad has +3 next to their name on most odds boards. That’s the number you probably want to grab if you’re interested in Seattle. And the metrics say you should be, given their considerable edge in DVOA.
Lions (+2.5) At Bears
Much like with Seattle, most sportsbooks are dealing +3 on the Lions. However, unlike with the Seahawks, even if a line move changes that and moves this into clear teaser territory at +2.5, the Lions do not look like an especially good teaser play.
Primarily because we see a total hear that’s right on the border of being too high for teasers. The potential for a higher scoring game certainly exists here given these two teams’ tendencies. The Bears have hardly stopped anyone all year and that has only become exacerbated after trading arguably their two best defensive players. And don’t be fooled by last week’s Lions holding of the Packers to nine points. Even a bad and injury-riddled Green Bay unit got a decent 5.6 YPP, undermined by Aaron Rodgers’ 3 INTs.
Grab the Lions on the moneyline or at +3 if that’s the side you like.