Each week during the 2021 NFL season, TheLines will examine how the coming week’s NFL lines have changed relative to preseason or prior expectations. Often, early lines can give an objective look at teams’ relative talent levels, absent week-to-week recency bias when the weekend results take hold. Let’s take a look at NFL Week 10 spreads and see which numbers have changed and, potentially, why.
Tracked lines below come from FanDuel Sportsbook. Prices are -110, unless otherwise noted.
Week 10 NFL Spreads That Moved Off 3
This week, unlike the past several, does not feature any huge spread moves of a field goal or more. Therefore, we’ll take a look at things by first singling out the spread moves off of the key number of 3. While these moves are small in magnitude, they represent significant market shifts.
|Game||Look-Ahead Line||Nov. 9, 4 p.m. ET|
|Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots||Patriots -3||Patriots -1.5|
|New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans||Titans -2.5||Titans -3 (-106)|
|Minnesota Vikings at LA Chargers||Chargers -3||Chargers -2.5 (-118)|
|Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos||Broncos -1.5||Broncos -3 (-105)|
|Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders||Chiefs -3||Chiefs -2.5|
|LA Rams at San Francisco 49ers||Rams -3||Rams -3.5 (-115)|
Browns At Patriots
Not too many teams had a more impressive Week 9 showing than the Cleveland Browns. They absolutely pasted the Bengals, gaining yards in chunks either through the air or on the ground while harassing Joe Burrow into five sacks and two INTs.
Does exiling Odell Beckham Jr. really have this big of an effect on the Cleveland offense? When they’re able to focus on pounding the rock and getting their play-action game going, things can look very good.
The Pats should offer more resistance, bringing in a top-five defense by both DVOA and EPA/play. Their offensive line should keep the fierce Cleveland pass rush more effectively away from the QB, as well.
Saints At Titans
How would the Titans handle losing Derrick Henry? That was one of the biggest questions looming over Week 9 in the NFL.
As it turns out, they didn’t need to do much at all on offense. Their defense completely wrecked the high-flying Rams, sacking Matt Stafford five times and picking him off twice. Both of those resulted in immediate scores, accounting for half of the team’s production in a 28-16 win.
So, we still haven’t learned much. Was the Titans’ 3.5 YPP due to feeling zero urgency to push the ball downfield? Or will that sink them in a hurry once opposing QBs stop handing them scores at least once per game?
Either way, the market saw enough to bump them to -3 against the Saints.
Ryan Tannehill will very likely need make something happen this week if that move is to look prescient. The Saints are excellent against the run, allowing the third-lowest success rate.
Vikings At Chargers
So, of course, the market moved toward the Vikings. Wait, what?
Dig a little deeper into Minnesota’s loss this weekend, and they actually outgained the Ravens 6.1 to 5.6 in YPP.
The advanced metrics do generally like this team. They ranked ahead of the Chargers in DVOA while EPA metrics have them rated similarly.
The market has just not bought into this Chargers team despite the public discourse fawning over their coaching aggression. Sharps have steamed against them the past three weeks in a row with a 2-1 record to show for it.
Minnesota would love nothing more than to take advantage of this weak defense by hammering them with Dalvin Cook. A poor run-blocking line (28th in adjusted line yards) may thwart that strategy.
Eagles At Broncos
The Eagles performed about as expected in their narrow loss to the Chargers, so this line move is all about Denver.
Despite working with some small fraction of their start-of-year defense, the Broncos managed to completely strangle the Cowboys offense until pure garbage time. They overwhelmed them up front, tackled on the back end, and played high-leverage moments beautifully with four stops on fourth down.
Can they sustain that type of performance without their two best pass rushers and two starting inside linebackers?
The market saw enough here to make the Broncos field-goal favorites in the friendly confines of Mile High, but the fill-in LBs will have their work cut out for them chasing Jalen Hurts around. Vic Fangio has been known to confuse an opposing QB or two, especially of the inexperienced sort.
Chiefs At Raiders
Few teams have had market perception crash like the Chiefs. Once -7.5 favorites for this game, they were down to -3 in the look-aheads and are now laying less than a field goal after the offense puked up another 3.8 YPP effort against the Packers.
One interesting wrinkle for this game is how much we should factor in the struggles of a far stronger 2020 Kansas City team against this Raiders bunch. Not only did Las Vegas hand the Chiefs their only true loss of the regular season, but they very nearly got them second time. Only a TD with 22 seconds left saved the Chiefs from a sweep.
Interestingly, though, while the offense has collapsed, the Chiefs defense has shown signs of life. They’re 19th in EPA/play since Week 6. While that doesn’t sound impressive, it’s far better than their full-season rank of 29th, and personnel changes mean it could be sustainable going forward. The addition of pass rusher Melvin Ingram III helps as well.
The Raiders didn’t show many signs of distraction as they thoroughly outgained the Giants in a flukey loss. With another week of distance from Henry Ruggs III and Damon Arnette, they should come prepared with a good effort against their division rivals.
Rams At 49ers
While things came to a head in the ugly 2 INT start to the Titans game, Matt Stafford had been struggling with some bizarre misses out of clean pockets in the week beforehand. Weak opposition meant it didn’t often have much impact, but Stafford has not looked his best for some time now.
And yet, the 49ers seemed to convince the market even less as they got trucked by an Arizona team missing its top offensive performers in Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins.
This week should see the unveiling of ace pass rusher Von Miller for the Rams, and the 49ers lost starting RT Mike McGlinchey for the season with a torn muscle.
Pessimism seems to be understandably mounting for 49ers as this line seems poised to go even higher among NFL Week 10 spreads if the juice is any indication.
One More NFL Week 10 Spread Move Of Note
|Game||Look-Ahead Line||Nov. 9, 4 p.m. ET|
|Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins||Ravens -6.5||Ravens -7.5|
The Ravens authored another dramatic victory against the Vikings last weekend.
Sure, causes for concern remain as the passing game remains boom-or-bust after another two-interception day for Lamar Jackson. But, they still gained 500 yards and 36 first downs. The offense has done its part most weeks and the defense gets a dreamy matchup with the Dolphins.
Miami may potentially be without starting QB Tua Tagovailoa again as well. The Fins offense turned over a whopping five times on Sunday, and that sort of performance will leave them buried by several touchdowns almost certainly here.
That could mask the struggles of the Baltimore defense, ranked just 26th in DVOA.
The market was likely disgusted enough with the Dolphins’ 3.6 YPP here to nudge the Ravens through the key number of 7.
NFL Week 10 Spreads, Movement Tracker
|Game||Look-Ahead Line||Nov. 9, 4 p.m. ET||Nov. 14, 10 a.m. ET|
|Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins||Ravens -6.5||Ravens -7.5||N/A|
|Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts||Colts -10.5||Colts -10.5 (-105)||Colts -10.5 (-105)|
|Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots||Patriots -3||Patriots -1.5||Patriots -2.5 (-108)|
|Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys||Cowboys -9.5||Cowboys -9||Cowboys -7.5|
|Buffalo Bills at NY Jets||Bills -13.5||Bills -13.5 (-105)||Bills -13.5 (-108)|
|New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans||Titans -2.5||Titans -3 (-106)||Titans -2.5 (-118)|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team||Bucs -7.5||Bucs -9.5||Bucs -9.5|
|Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers||Steelers -9||Steelers -9||Steelers -5.5|
|Minnesota Vikings at LA Chargers||Chargers -3||Chargers -2.5 (-118)||Chargers -3.5 (-105)|
|Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals||OTB||Cardinals -10||Cardinals -8.5 (-105)|
|Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers||Packers -5||Packers -3.5 (-105)||Packers -3 (-115)|
|Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos||Broncos -1.5||Broncos -3 (-105)||Broncos -1|
|Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders||Chiefs -3||Chiefs -2.5||Chiefs -3 (-105)|
|LA Rams at San Francisco 49ers||Rams -3||Rams -3.5 (-115)||Rams -3.5|