NFL Week 10 Betting Preview: Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins Spread

Written By Derek Wagner on November 11, 2022
browns dolphins spread

The Cleveland Browns (3-5) visit the Miami Dolphins (6-3) at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 13. The Browns Dolphins spread has Miami as favorites and on the moneyline. The over/under set at .

In this article we break down everything you need to know before placing a bet on the game, including team matchups, key metrics, weather, and the best available odds.


To place a bet, click on the Browns Dolphins spread in the table above. Toggle between spread, moneyline, or point total in the dropdown menu.

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As of Wednesday, the Browns Dolphins odds at DraftKings Sportsbook had Miami -3.5. 61% of the money is on Cleveland to cover the spread. Additional updates can be found below.

Dolphins Vs. Browns Weather

The weather forecast for Miami Gardens on Sunday is dry (scattered clouds) and calm (6 mph winds), with a high temperature of 83 degrees Fahrenheit (as of 10:18 AM on November 10).

Dolphins Vs. Browns Injury Report

Miami Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Christian WilkinsDTHandProbable63.8
Terron ArmsteadOTToeQuestionable53.9
Jaylen WaddleWRShoulderProbable48.9
Durham SmytheTEHamstringQuestionable42.6
Raekwon DavisDTKneeQuestionable42.4
Hunter LongTEConcussionQuestionable20.8
Tanner ConnerTEKneeQuestionable16.8
River CracraftWRIllnessQuestionable12.7

Cleveland Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Jack ConklinOTFootQuestionable66.7
Greg Newsome IICBObliqueQuestionable64.5
Martin EmersonCBIllnessQuestionable52.4
Perrion WinfreyDTIllnessQuestionable20.7

Dolphins Offense Vs. Browns Defense

Dolphins OffenseStats (Rank)Browns Defense
23.7 (10)Points/Gm24.9 (24)
0.4 (2)Points/Play0.4 (17)
380.4 (5)Yards/Gm331.4 (15)
293.6 (2)Pass Yards/Gm208.3 (15)
86.9 (29)Rush Yards/Gm123.1 (22)
6.3 (2)Yards/Play5.6 (19)
8.2 (1)Yards/Pass6.9 (23)
3.9 (28)Yards/Rush4.6 (19)
41.3% (14)3rd Down %39.8% (16)
69.0% (6)Red Zone %58.6% (21)
10 (14)Turnovers8 (24)
17 (10)Sacks19 (17)

Browns Offense Vs. Dolphins Defense

Browns OffenseStats (Rank)Dolphins Defense
25.0 (7)Points/Gm24.9 (24)
0.4 (2)Points/Play0.4 (17)
385.8 (4)Yards/Gm363.3 (22)
221.1 (16)Pass Yards/Gm245.9 (23)
164.6 (3)Rush Yards/Gm117.4 (15)
5.7 (10)Yards/Play5.8 (24)
6.9 (11)Yards/Pass7.0 (24)
5.0 (7)Yards/Rush4.6 (19)
41.3% (14)3rd Down %44.7% (27)
61.3% (10)Red Zone %70.0% (29)
12 (17)Turnovers7 (29)
16 (6)Sacks17 (20)


Why the Browns Can Cover The Spread

Since Week 7, Cleveland sports the second-lowest Dropback EPA yielded to opponents. Although a two-game sample size is small, this stretch came against Baltimore and Cincinnati, teams that rank in the top half of the league as far as Dropback EPA.

The Browns are coming off their bye week and hopeful to get star cornerback Denzel Ward back from a concussion he suffered earlier in the season. The team has been hesitant to commit to his status, but if he clears concussion protocol it would be a huge addition against these star-studded receivers for Miami.

The Browns might catch a break in this matchup. Mike McDaniel has proven he is not a fan of running the football, after calling only 18 runs for his running backs last week against a putrid Chicago run defense. Chicago’s defense allows the third most rushing yards a game at 147.5 but was able to limit Miami to only 77. If McDaniel ignores the Dolphins possible advantage in the running game, the Browns could see themselves in this game right at the very end.

Why the Dolphins Can Cover The Spread

Miami covering the Browns Dolphins spread comes down to the passing attack. The combination of Waddle and Hill have been absolutely lethal and have caused matchup nightmares for opponents.

Last week, the Bears tried to slow down the duo but were unsuccessful. In fact, Chicago’s top cornerback Jaylon Johnson, had one of his worse statistical games of the season. He was targeted five times and surrendered a season high four catches, along with allowing his first touchdown of the season. Even the best corners in the league are struggling against the Dolphins. Mike McDaniel has shown a willingness to throw at opponents’ top corners and it has been by and large successful. This could be problematic for the Browns defense that is middle of the pack in terms of Dropback EPA.

Additionally, the Browns defense is bottom five in EPA per play. This doesn’t bode well when facing an explosive offense like the Dolphins who can score quickly.

If you’re into trends, the Dolphins are 4-5 against the spread thus far this season, and 0-3-1 ATS as a favorite in their last four games as favorites. They were a push or a loss against the spread, depending on the number you got in the Detroit game.

Reasons To Bet The Over

This total has been climbing since Nov. 6 and is as high as 49 at one spot. While the point total is high, these two teams are more than capable of trading explosive touchdowns. We saw the Bears gash Miami for explosive plays last week and the Browns are a much more balanced offense than Chicago. On top of that, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are always a threat to bust a big play. The Dolphins have 36 total plays that have gone for more than 20 yard gains this season, tied with the Chiefs for most in the NFL. When they move the ball, they are doing so in big chunk plays. At points, Browns Dolphins odds feature a reachable Over when factoring in Miami’s explosive offense.

Reasons To Bet The Under

Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league as far as pace of play in neutral situations is concerned. Other than pace, there is not much of a case for the under. Especially after seeing the effort Miami’s defense put forth last week.


Myles Garrett Vs. Dolphins tackles: Myles Garret has the ability to wreck this game and prevent Tua from having time to throw to Waddle and Hill. Garret has at least one sack in each of his last three games. Additionally, Garrett is eighth in the NFL in pressures while only playing seven games so far.

The Dolphins are likely to deploy Brandon Shell at right tackle this weekend, and this is a matchup Cleveland can exploit. Shell has been an upgrade over Greg Little who has allowed 27 pressures so far this season, but he could be due for some regression this weekend.

Furthermore, the Bears yielded a 151.6 passer rating to Tua last week through three quarters. In the fourth quarter, they blitzed him on all of his dropbacks and he was only 1-of-4 for 9 yards. Although a small sample size, I would not expect the Browns to ignore this. The Browns also blitz about 10% more than the Bears do, so they will be more than willing to try and disrupt Tua before he can find one of his star receivers.

Final thoughts

The Dolphins have been favored by four points in three straight games now. They have won both but failed to cover in each of them. I’m willing to bet the Browns are a better team than both the Lions and Bears so I did grab Browns +4 early in the week. I’d be happy taking anything over the key number of three with Cleveland. Good luck with betting the Browns Dolphins spread and other odds.

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