NFL Week 10 Betting Preview: Minnesota Vikings At Buffalo Bills Spread

Written By Jeffrey Schreiber on November 10, 2022 - Last Updated on November 11, 2022
vikings bills odds

The Minnesota Vikings visit the Buffalo Bills at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 13. Primary markets for the game show the Vikings Bills spread at Buffalo and on the moneyline. The total is set at . The odds have been in flux this week with uncertainty surrounding Bills QB Josh Allen’s elbow injury.

In this article, we break down everything you need to know before placing a bet on the game, including team matchups, key metrics, weather and the best available NFL Week 10 oddsClick on the odds anywhere in this post to bet now.

Vikings Bills Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

When using the Vikings Bills spread table above, you can also click the dropdown menu and switch to moneylines or totals. 

Betting the point spread is when you wager on how many points a team will win or lose by. A plus sign in front of the spread denotes the underdog, and a minus sign denotes the favorite.

In this case, the Bills would have to win by at least four points if you bet them to cover the point spread (-3.5). A spread bet on the Vikings would win if they win the game or lose by three or fewer points. 

Betting the moneyline is simply betting on which particular team will win a game.

The betting total is the number of combined points the two teams will score. Bettors can choose to bet the over or under on how many total points will be scored in the game. 

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VIKINGS AT BILLS PLAYER PROPS

In the props tool search bar, type in a team or player and hit enter. You’ll see the various proposition bets offered by leading online sportsbooks. 

This is a valuable tool that allows bettors to compare odds and stats when considering a prop bet. Unlike bigger markets like moneylines and spreads that often reach a consensus number, shopping for prop bet lines can often reveal sizable differences in the numbers.

VIKINGS AT BILLS BETTING NEWS & ANGLES

Use this rolling, updating list of news bites about each team to help your handicapping for Vikings – Bills odds. Be sure to stay alert for the Josh Allen injury news.

Bills Vs. Vikings Weather

Light snow and 15 mph winds are expected at Highmark Stadium on Sunday (as of 11:17 AM on November 10), with a high temperature of 38 degrees Fahrenheit.

VIKINGS VS. BILLS INJURY REPORT

TheLines injury expert Will Carroll reports the Josh Allen elbow injury is a small tear in his ulnar collateral ligament (UCL), the “Tommy John” ligament.

Buffalo Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Rodger SaffoldOGBackQuestionable64.6
Josh AllenQBElbowQuestionable63.6
Tremaine EdmundsLBGroinQuestionable63.4
Matt MilanoLBObliqueQuestionable58.9
Dane JacksonCBNeckQuestionable56.9
Mitch MorseCElbowQuestionable56.4
Spencer BrownOTAnkleQuestionable53.8
Kaiir ElamCBAnkleQuestionable47.1
Gregory RousseauDEAnkleQuestionable35.3
Cam LewisCBForearmProbable14.2

Minnesota Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Garrett BradburyCAnkleQuestionable66.6
Adam ThielenWRAnkleQuestionable63.0
Cameron DantzlerCBAnkleQuestionable58.0
Ben EllefsonTEGroinQuestionable23.8

Bills Offense Vs. Vikings Defense

Bills OffenseStats (Rank)Vikings Defense
27.5 (3)Points/Gm20.1 (12)
0.4 (2)Points/Play0.3 (2)
416.4 (1)Yards/Gm368.1 (25)
292.1 (3)Pass Yards/Gm256.9 (27)
124.3 (13)Rush Yards/Gm111.3 (10)
6.5 (1)Yards/Play5.7 (22)
7.7 (3)Yards/Pass7.4 (29)
5.1 (4)Yards/Rush4.2 (7)
52.2% (1)3rd Down %34.4% (8)
53.6% (19)Red Zone %78.9% (32)
14 (28)Turnovers14 (6)
16 (6)Sacks24 (9)

Vikings Offense Vs. Bills Defense

Vikings OffenseStats (Rank)Bills Defense
24.1 (8)Points/Gm14.8 (1)
0.4 (2)Points/Play0.2 (1)
340.1 (15)Yards/Gm299.6 (4)
238.1 (10)Pass Yards/Gm194.8 (7)
102 (24)Rush Yards/Gm104.9 (6)
5.3 (17)Yards/Play5 (6)
6.2 (19)Yards/Pass6 (6)
4.3 (20)Yards/Rush4.3 (10)
40.4% (16)3rd Down %40.2% (17)
64.5% (7)Red Zone %47.8% (4)
8 (5)Turnovers15 (4)
16 (6)Sacks23 (11)

VIKINGS AT BILLS BETTING INSIGHTS

Why The Vikings Can Cover The Spread

Although the look-ahead line was Bills -9.5, you’re still getting the hook with the Vikings at +3.5. In all likelihood, Minnesota will be facing a backup quarterback. The Vikings’ offense is coming together and has formulated truly elite offensive weaponry. The acquisition of TE TJ Hockenson has opened things up even more for Justin Jefferson, and QB Kirk Cousins has hit his stride. The one area in the Bills’ defense that has conceded more than the league average is run defense. Buffalo is graded as the 21st run defense per PFF. Dalvin Cook has been running well lately after struggling to start 2022. In three of his last four games, Cook has run for over five yards a carry.

Why The Bills Can Cover The Spread

With Josh Allens’ health in question, the Vikings Bills spread has steadily moved towards Minnesota. The Bills will likely rely on their elite defense to carry them through in this game. Buffalo has been stout on defense in 2022, ranking top five in defense DVOA and Defense EPA metrics. The Bills are also allowing the fewest points per play in football. Buffalo has the 11th-most sacks in the league while blitzing at a bottom-ten rate. Regardless of who is starting at QB, this spread is probably the shortest you will find with the Bills all year (-3.5).

Reasons To Bet The Over

This matchup’s pace and scoring potential depend solely on Josh Allen’s status. Both offenses have been operating fast, scoring at a top-12 per-play rate and passing at a top-four clip while their games are within one score. The Vikings are fourth in pass rate, and their games average the seventh-most combined plays. Minnesota won’t hold back from playing up-tempo if they trail, as they’ve operated at the ninth-fastest pace while down by at least seven points.

Reasons To Bet The Under

Buffalos’ fourth-ranked defense by DVOA can prevent points from being scored in this game. With Case Keenum’s possible start, a more conservative Buffalo approach is likely. Minnesota will play at their opponents’ pace at times. We saw this scenario play out in Week 9 when Washington played slowly, stayed committed to the run game, and the matchup’s total play volume was only 126 snaps. The Bills have shown recently that they will run more. Starting Keenum or a banged-up Allen under center will incentivize them to lean into this run-heavy approach. Buffalo is only 19th in situation-neutral pass rate over the last month (56.7%) after leading the league through five weeks (69%). The Vikings defense has allowed opponents to score 20.1 points per game whereas the Bills’ defense has allowed its opponents to score 14.8 points per game, thats 34.9 total points, well under this total.

VIKINGS AT BILLS MATCHUPS TO WATCH FOR

Case Keenum vs Minnesota Defense: If Allen were to miss this game, the most eyed matchup would be how Case Keenum operates against his former team. Minnesota has been dreadful in the secondary thus far, ranking bottom ten in yards per play allowed, yards per pass allowed, and Red-Zone defense. A probable conservative game script is expected from Buffalo if Keenum were to start.

Justin Jefferson vs Buffalo CBs: Bills’ CB Tre’Davious White is considered day-to-day heading into Week 10 when Buffalo hosts Minnesota. White was activated from the reserve/PUP list on November 1. This would be a true first test for White as he would be slated to face a lot of All-Pro Justin Jefferson in this game. Be on the lookout for Whites’ status prior to game-time.

FINAL THOUGHTS

The time has come to take the Minnesota Vikings seriously. A 7-1 football team likely facing a backup quarterback while getting +3.5 points, tells me to add Minnesota to my betting card in Week 10. Best of luck betting the Vikings Bills spread and other odds.

Jeffrey Schreiber Avatar
Written by
Jeffrey Schreiber

Jeffrey Schreiber is a sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media. Jeff is recent college graduate with a background in finance and analytics. His goal is to provide readers with data and information behind the "why" to make a bet. His most memorable betting moment came during the divisional round of the 2022 NFL playoffs when he turned $37 in same-game parlay bets into $25,000.

View all posts by Jeffrey Schreiber