The Recency Report: NFL Week 9 Market Moves And Week 10 Look-Ahead Lines

Posted By FairwayJay on November 1, 2019 - Last Updated on November 3, 2019

Every week, TheLines turns to FanDuel Sportsbook for opening look-ahead lines for next week’s NFL games. These advance lines are posted every Thursday, a full week before the ensuing week’s games on the schedule.

In this article, we also take a look at the current lines compared to the opening lines at FanDuel from the previous week. Here’s a look at some of the storylines and betting situations that have impacted (or could impact) the Week 9 NFL card:

  • The Vikings (6-2) and Chiefs (5-3) is one of the marquee match-ups of the week and surprisingly the Kansas City has lost three home games this season at Arrowhead, including last week to the Packers, 31-24. The betting line is one to watch with injured QB Patrick Mahomes practicing with the Chiefs all week and potentially able to play. Many sportsbooks have taken the game down, but Circa sportsbook and CG Technology in Las Vegas both have the Chiefs (-2) favored while FanDuel Sportsbook is not as optimistic yet about Mahomes return with the Chiefs still an underdog (+2.5).
  • The Patriots (8-0) and Ravens (5-2) will be the biggest bet game of the day on Sunday Night Football in Baltimore. This is an interesting matchup with two elite head coaches and the Ravens’ No. 1 rushing attack (204 yards per game) with QB Lamar Jackson leading the team in rushing and going for his third straight 100-yard rushing game. The Patriots defense is tied with the 49ers for league-best 4.1 yards per play allowed and is also top 5 in run defense.

The Week 9 betting guide highlights the games with plenty of betting analysis for you to consume. Below we take a look at the market movement on this week’s games along with the reasons why the lines have shifted to help you with your handicapping.

How to use look-ahead lines

We’ll be providing the NFL advance lines from FanDuel Sportsbook each week to allow you a sneak peek at the projected lines for the following week’s games. This advance information from a big bookmaker provides lessons in understanding lines and projections before the current week’s games are played.

The tendency for many bettors is to over-react to the previous week’s scores and results. The look-ahead lines provide a sense of stability from the linemaker, who is unbiased in setting the lines in advance without the information from the current week’s contests.

Bettors can also gain an edge or find value in the lines once the current week’s lines are released. They do this based on not only a potential overreaction to the recent week’s results, but by using information they have on teams, including NFL power rankings. Making adjustments is part of the process, along with formulating an opinion and whether they are a believer in some teams or not in others. This can be based on personnel, injuries, situations, stats or angles they want to apply as the season progresses.

Week 9 market movement

The Vikings and Chiefs line is fluctuating and will depend on the status of Mahomes. FanDuel Sportsbook still has the Vikings (-2.5) a road favorite with anticipation Mahomes will not play. Many other sportsbooks have the game off the board as of Thursday.

The Eagles (-5) are taking around 80% of the spread bets at home against the Bears and that line is up from -3.5.

The Jets (1-6) are a three-point road favorite and taking at least three out of every four spread bets at DraftKings Sportsbook in their division matchup at Miami. But the line has dropped from -6 with the sharps stepping in on the winless Dolphins (0-7) in a battle at the bottom of the AFC East.

The Lions (3-3-1) opened a one-point favorite last week on the look-ahead lines, but now the Raiders (3-4) are a two-point home favorite. The Lions are still taking greater than 60% of the spread bets at DraftKings Sportsbook.

The Broncos (2-6) opened a one-point home favorite on the advance Week 9 look ahead lines, but the Browns (2-5) are now a 3-point favorite (-130) at FanDuel Sportsbook with backup Brandon Allen starting at quarterback for Denver. He becomes the 15th backup quarterback to start this season. The Browns are taking greater than 90% of the spread bets at DraftKings Sportsbook, which as the Browns up to a 3.5-point favorite.

GameOpenCurrent
San Francisco at Arizona-6.5SF -10.5
Houston vs Jacksonville (London)HOU -3HOU -1
Washington at BuffalcoBUF -10BUF -9.5
Tennessee at CarolinaCAR -4.5CAR -3.5
Chicago at PhiladelphiaPHI -3.5PHI -5
Minnesota at Kansas CityMIN -3.5MIN -2.5
NY Jets at MiamiNYJ -6.5NYJ -3
Indianapolis at PittsburghIND -1.5IND -1
Detroit at OaklandDET -1OAK -2
Tampa Bay at SeattleSEA -5.5SEA -5.5
Cleveland at DenverDEN -1CLE -3
Green Bay at LA ChargersGB -3.5GB -3.5
New England at BaltimoreNE -4.5NE -3.5
Dallas at NY Giants DAL -7.5DAL -7

Market Game of the Week: Tampa Bay at Seattle. The most turnover-prone quarterback since he entered the league in 2015, Jameis Winston has buried Bucs bettors the past two games with 10 turnovers himself. Tampa Bay outgained both Carolina and Tennessee by at least 135 yards but still lost. Winston’s decision-making and lack of awareness continue to baffle not only bettors but teammates, coaches and NFL personnel as his brain just does not match up to his talent and arm strength.

The Bucs (2-5) are on a 0-3 SU/ATS slide and are 0-3 at home this season. This week at Seattle, the Buccaneers bring the league’s No. 1 rush defense statistically to the contest allowing just 68 rushing yards per game at 3.0 yards per rush. Will Winston and the Bucs snap out of it? Bettors don’t believe so with greater than 90% of the spread bets supporting Seattle (-6) at DraftKings Sportsbook mid-week.

NFL Week 10 look-ahead lines

Week 10 includes more division games. In the AFC it’s the LA Chargers at Oakland and Baltimore at Cincinnati. In the NFC, Chicago heads to Detroit and San Francisco hosts Seattle on Monday Night. Key playoff impacting matchups include Minnesota at Dallas and Carolina at Green Bay.

GameFanDuel Spread
Chargers at RaidersOAK -1.5
Lions at BearsCHI -3.5
Ravens at BengalsBAL -9.5
Bills at BrownsCLE -3
Panthers at PackersGB -6.5
Chiefs at TitansKC -4.5
Falcons at SaintsNO -12.5
NY Giants at NY JetsNYJ -1.5
Cardinals at BuccaneersTB -6.5
Dolphins at ColtsIND -15.5
Rams at SteelersLAR -3.5
Vikings at CowboysDAL -2.5
Seahawks at 49ersSF -5.5

In May, Las Vegas sportsbook CG Technology released NFL lines on every 2019 regular-season game. The biggest projected summer lines in Week 10:

  • Miami at Indianapolis (-9.5)
  • Detroit at Chicago (-8)
  • Atlanta at New Orleans (-7)

Other current games of interest from those summer lines at CG Technology include:

  • Minnesota at Dallas (-3)
  • NY Giants at NY Jets (-3)
  • LA Rams at Pittsburgh (PK)
  • LA Chargers (-4)
  • Baltimore (-1) at Cincinnati
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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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