NFL Week 10 Betting Preview: Detroit Lions At Chicago Bears Spread

Written By Brett Gibbons on November 11, 2022
Lions at Bears odds

The Detroit Lions (2-6) visit the Chicago Bears (3-6) in NFL Week 10 action on Sunday, Nov. 13 at 1:00 p.m. ET. Kickoff comes from Soldier Field in Chicago, and will be broadcast on FOX. The Lions Bears spread has Chicago home favorites and Detroit on the moneyline. The over/under currently sits at .

In this article we break down everything you need to know before placing a bet on the game, including team matchups, key metrics, and the best available odds.

Lions Bears Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

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Lions At Bears Player Props

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Lions At Bears Betting News & Angles

Lions At Bears Weather

As of Nov. 8, Chicago weather forecasts to be chilly and breezy, with highs in the upper 30s. There’s no precipitation forecast, but with all Midwest cities in November, things can change quickly. Keep an eye on the weather as the week progresses.

Bears Vs. Lions Injury Report

Chicago Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Kindle VildorDBAnkleQuestionable51.0
Matthew AdamsLBCalfQuestionable31.3

Detroit Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Josh ReynoldsWRBackQuestionable54.1
AJ ParkerCBHipQuestionable41.7
Matt NelsonOTCalfQuestionable15.5
Chase LucasCBAnkleQuestionable13.5

Bears Offense Vs. Lions Defense

Bears OffenseStats (Rank)Lions Defense
20.8 (21)Points/Gm29.3 (32)
0.3 (18)Points/Play0.4 (17)
321.2 (23)Yards/Gm417.3 (32)
125.7 (32)Pass Yards/Gm268.5 (29)
195.6 (1)Rush Yards/Gm148.8 (31)
5.3 (17)Yards/Play6.4 (32)
6.0 (26)Yards/Pass7.8 (32)
5.4 (2)Yards/Rush5.0 (28)
43.4% (10)3rd Down %51.0% (32)
55.2% (16)Red Zone %63.3% (24)
12 (17)Turnovers9 (19)
33 (31)Sacks12 (30)

Lions Offense Vs. Bears Defense

Lions OffenseStats (Rank)Bears Defense
23.5 (12)Points/Gm24.0 (21)
0.4 (2)Points/Play0.4 (17)
377.3 (7)Yards/Gm347.9 (18)
243.1 (8)Pass Yards/Gm200.7 (10)
134.1 (9)Rush Yards/Gm147.2 (30)
6.0 (4)Yards/Play5.8 (24)
7.0 (8)Yards/Pass7.2 (27)
5.0 (7)Yards/Rush4.9 (26)
39.4% (19)3rd Down %50.5% (31)
71.4% (4)Red Zone %67.7% (28)
12 (17)Turnovers13 (8)
13 (4)Sacks13 (29)

Lions At Bears Betting Insights

Why The Lions Can Cover The Spread

A bet on the Lions is really more a bet against the Bears and their recent offensive tear. Have the offensive coaching staff and Justin Fields really figured it out for good? It took three red zone interceptions from Aaron Rodgers for the Lions to beat the Packers– a stat that’s not sticky and one that shouldn’t be considered when handicapping this game.

At a field goal or less, you’re rolling the dice on the Lions’ offense getting back to their early-season scoring rate and the Bears to be a three-game flash in the pan.

Why The Bears Can Cover The Spread

That said, the Bears offense isn’t a three-game flash in the pan. The scheme has been turned on its head and the utilization of Fields is finally in line with his skillset; expect this Bears offense to continue to be an improved unit (even if their current scoring rate is likely not sustainable).

These are two teams on opposite trajectories. The Bears have scored the second-most points in the NFL over the last three games while the Lions– formerly the top scoring team in the league– are 26th. Defensively, both teams are pretty messy, but the Lions haven’t shown an ability to score on anyone at the moment.

At just a field goal favorite, the Bears are likely the better side to bet Sunday.

Reasons To Bet The Over

points is a pretty generous total in this one, but not an impossible number to cross. Over the last three weeks, Chicago is the NFL’s fifth-most efficient rushing offense while Detroit is 18th in rushing success rate allowed.

Over that same span, Fields is seventh among QBs in efficiency, above names like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. As Chase Claypool’s role expands in the offense, Fields’ downfield passing will improve as well, especially against a notably terrible Lions secondary.

But Chicago has defensive issues of their own. Over their last three games, the Bears are 31st in defensive EPA and allowed 49 to the Cowboys and 35 to the Dolphins. They’ve been gouged both through the air and on the ground. With their recent run at scoring, it forces opposing teams to keep up the pace and their defense does little to prevent that.

Reasons To Bet The Under

When betting unders, I like to look for games that feature at least one team that can’t score; pretty simple.

Currently, the Detroit Lions cannot score. They’ve mustered 15, 6, and 0 points over a four-game span against two good defenses (New England, Dallas), one mediocre defense (Green Bay), and they scored zero second-half points against a bad defense (Miami). Just because Chicago forces teams to keep up doesn’t mean they all can.

The other half of the equation is rolling the dice on the Bears’ last three games being an outlier streak and that they’re closer to their first six games. This is not a bet I am making this week, though.

Lions At Bears Props: Matchups To Watch For

Justin Fields Vs. Lions Edge Defenders: The story in the NFL currently is the emergence of Fields. He broke the QB single-game rushing record for the regular season with 178 yards against the Dolphins, who added and played Bradley Chubb in that game. Fields is going to test Aidan Hutchinson and other Lions’ edge defenders all afternoon long. 15 rushing attempts from Fields led to 32 scored points and that game plan will carry over into Sunday.

While Hutchinson earns a favorable grade from PFF, he’s the only Lion pass rusher inside the top 50. He does have the athletic ability to rush Fields and the lateral quickness to establish a hard edge. However, just funneling Fields back in towards the teeth of the defense doesn’t guarantee he won’t pick up yards, the Lions have to secure tackles. Per PFF grades, they’re the eighth-most sure tackling team in the NFL.

Watch for a market overreaction to last week in Fields’ rushing props this weekend.

Detroit Red Zone Offense Vs. Chicago Red Zone Defense: Few teams put the ball in the end zone more frequently from inside the red zone than Detroit. With a red zone touchdown conversion rate of 71.4%, only Tennessee, Kansas City, and Cincinnati are more efficient. Pair this with a Chicago red zone defense that’s allowing the fifth-highest TD rate (67.7%) and the outcome appears pretty predictable.

With D’Andre Swift still on a pitch count, Jamaal Williams remains the goal line threat. This Sunday, I’ll be looking for anytime TD props for Williams.

Final Thoughts

Looking at season-long metrics for these teams will lead you down the wrong path. With nine weeks of data under our belts, it’s important to segment and note trends as well as recent performance rather than season-long. The Lions appear to be one of the league’s biggest scoring threats and the Bears appear to be a stagnant offense with low point totals on the season as a whole.

At under a field goal at Caesars Sportsbook, the Bears are an enticing favorite to bet. This is a much-improved team that seemingly unlocked Fields by calling more designed runs out of the Ravens playbook and treating him like a Lamar Jackson. Fields is too talented a QB to assume that this trend was temporary and the Lions defense doesn’t instill a lot of confidence in me. They had a nice outing against the Packers, but ultimately Rodgers made mistake after mistake and handed Detroit the game.

In this game, I’m betting the Lions Bears spread. I’ve added Chicago -2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook.

Best of luck betting the Lions Bears spread and other odds.

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Brett Gibbons Avatar
Written by
Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

View all posts by Brett Gibbons