The NFL is a league of matchups. Being able to identify unequal matchups and mismatches could prove fruitful to bettors. Below are three NFL Week 10 matchups that may present opportunity in betting player props and against the spread.
This isn’t by any means an exhaustive list. At TheLines, we encourage bettors to identify their own mismatches using our array of tools. Search for the best prices on weekly player props by using our NFL Player Prop finder (below).
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NFL Week 10 Matchups And Mismatches To Watch
Lamar Jackson vs. Dolphins edge defenders
Among NFL Week 10 matchups, the worst edge may be in Miami. Literally. The Dolphins don’t set edges very well. Be it pass rushers, linebackers, or defensive backs, these players constantly get sucked inside and give up the edge. When they do get outside leverage, it’s six or more yards in the backfield, opening up gaping holes for mobile quarterbacks to escape through.
While Miami doesn’t give up gaudy rushing numbers to quarterbacks this season, they’ve faced a largely-immobile slate this year (Mac Jones, Derek Carr, Carson Wentz, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Tyrod Taylor). The remaining names– Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence– have gashed the Dolphins for 101 of the 140 quarterback rushing yards on the season in three games. Further, Josh Allen’s accounted for 90 of those yards and is the only quarterback to attempt more than two rushes.
Lamar Jackson is coming off 21 rush attempts for 120 yards against the Minnesota Vikings last week. Not much needs to be said about his escapability, elusiveness, and vision. Per Next Gen Stats rushing charts, Jackson picks up his highest-percentage of rushing yards on scrambles off designed passes.
With the Dolphins having a propensity to open up escape lanes (and large ones at that) and to give up the edge, Jackson should have another week of high-volume and high-output rushing.
Buccaneers passing game vs. Washington Football Team secondary
In one of the biggest changes from 2020, the Washington Football Team is bleeding production to opposing offenses. WFT is seventh in passing yards allowed, second in passing touchdowns allowed, and in the bottom third in interceptions (four). While their talented front is generating pressure, no one’s getting home; they’re top-10 in pressure rate but 16th in sacks this season. The issue comes in their ability to cover receivers. Per PFF unit grades, Washington is the third-worst coverage team.
For a team that’s had trouble getting home and struggles covering, Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a nightmare matchup. Brady is the least-pressured quarterback and has the sixth-lowest time in the pocket on the season. The Brady system– even on the Bucs– is to get the ball out, in his receivers’ hands, and moving vertically as fast as possible. Of his 25 passing touchdowns this season, just two traveled more than 20 yards in the air (NFL Next Gen Stats).
Where Washington has been carved is through rhythmic passers who get the ball out of their hands quickly. In its Week 3 matchup with the Bills, Josh Allen attempted only five passes longer than 20 yards through the air (43 attempts), but picked up 358 yards and four touchdowns.
The cherry on top is the slew of talented receivers for the Bucs. Per PFF, Antonio Brown (who could return for this game), Chris Godwin (who is nursing a foot issue), and Mike Evans all rank inside the top 50 in receivers this season. Conversely, two of Washington’s cornerbacks rank outside the top 95 in grades this season.
Markus Golden and Chandler Jones vs. Cam Erving
To boil this down to its most basic blocks, Markus Golden and Chandler Jones are two of the best pass rushers in the league while Cam Erving is not a very good offensive tackle. Golden is third in the NFL in sacks (nine) and Jones is PFF’s fifth-highest graded pass rusher this year. As a team, the Cardinals are fourth in sacks.
Cam Erving has allowed 21 quarterback pressures this season and six hits in just six games played (note: he played just nine snaps in Week 9, which would have been his seventh game). As a unit, the Panthers are fourth-worst according to PFF’s pass blocking grades. As a result, Sam Darnold is the eighth-most sacked quarterback this season (22).
Pressure results in turnovers and hurried throws. From this, we can derive back-up QB P.J. Walker may be in for another turnover-happy weekend, with Darnold now on IR.