The FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey has joined the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas in releasing NFL look-ahead lines, and we’ll include both sportsbooks in the Week 10 advance look ahead lines. While there are no big games in Week 10 to match the Week 9 showdown between the Saints and Rams or the Patriots and Packers, there will be plenty of betting as teams pushing for the playoffs the second half of the season.
Following the Raiders’ pitiful performance (again) on Thursday night in a 34-3 drubbing by the 49ers, Oakland’s Week 10 line when released following the Nov. 4 Week 9 games is likely to see the Raiders closer to a double-digit underdog when they host the LA Chargers. Oakland is now 1-7 and losers of 4-straight games all by 14 or more points.
Adjusting to market moves
The tendency of many bettors is to over (or under) react to games and events they saw most recently. That’s especially true on the nationally televised primetime games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday night. As scoring continues at a record pace while averaging more than 48 points per game, the high-powered offenses will also influence the betting lines and totals, which are also being set by the linemaker at record highs. Three more games in Week 9 have totals set at 55 or higher, including the Saints and Rams showdown with a total of 60!
While it’s essential to make adjustments in your handicapping and sports betting approach based on information such as impactful injuries, statistical profiles, player performance and personnel changes, and scheduling situations, it’s also important to understand a bookmaker’s approach to setting the lines and its understanding of how bettors react to recent results.
The losing and perceived bad teams will have adjustments in the lines, especially following a poor performance. The bookmaker knows how the public bettors will react, and it will be difficult to draw bets on those ‘losers’, thus an adjustment in price and the betting line as the bookmaker tries to make the bad teams look more appealing on the betting line hoping to draw more action on the ugly underdogs.
Week 9 look-ahead lines and major moves
For the Week 9 games on Sunday, Nov. 4, these are the games where there was at least a two-point difference from the look-ahead line in Las Vegas and current line:
- Tampa Bay at Carolina (-4.5) – Current line Panthers -6.5
- Houston (-1.5) at Denver – Current line Broncos -1
- Green Bay at New England (-7.5) – Current line Patriots -5.5
- Tennessee at Dallas (-4) – Current line Cowboys -6
The trade deadline passed on Oct. 30, and some key trades will be worth watching as players like WR Demaryius Thomas goes from Denver to Houston, and plays for his new Texans team against the Broncos this week.
There are some of trades worth tracking, and while the impact of a wide receiver or running back has little impact on a betting line (one point at most point in some cases), the emotional impact or lock room effect is worth paying attention to in Week 9 and 10, as well as for those losing teams unloading players and playing out the string the second half of the season. There will be an over-reaction in the betting market, but sometimes there is addition by subtraction as teams also unload players that were not good for the team, like Ty Montgomery in Green Bay. For FanDuel players that bet at its new sportsbook app, and involved in fantasy football and the FanDuel contests, the player trades may have more of an effect on fantasy lineups and who to sit or start as teams move to new teams.
Week 10 look-ahead betting lines
|Game||Westgate Line||FanDuel NJ Line|
|Carolina at Pittsburgh||PIT -6||PIT -3.5|
|New Orleans at Cincinnati||NO -4||NO -3.5|
|Atlanta at Cleveland||ATL -1||ATL -3|
|Detroit at Chicago||CHI -4||CHI -4|
|Arizona at Kansas City||KC -14.5||KC -13|
|New England at Tennessee||NE -6||NE -4|
|Washington at Tampa Bay||PK||TB -1.5|
|Buffalo at NY Jets||NYJ -7||NYJ -7.5|
|Jacksonville at Indianapolis||IND -2.5||IND -1.5|
|LA Chargers at Oakland||LAC -7.5||LAC -6.5|
|Seattle at LA Rams||LAR -8||LAR -9.5|
|Miami at Green Bay||OFF||GB -7|
|Dallas at Philadelphia||PHI -6||PHI -5.5|
|NY Giants at San Francisco||SF -2.5||SF -1.5|