Week 9 secured its standing as a noteworthy slate. For a change, the home teams ruled the roost. Every home playing on Sunday from 1 p.m. ET onward ran the table (a 12-0 record overall). That included the Ravens finally putting a blemish on the Patriots’ previously pristine record on Sunday night.
Week 10 kicks off with an interesting mix of division rivalries and interconference games. The Lions and Bears will dispute NFC North positioning, the Ravens will look to build on their big Sunday night win against their hapless AFC North brethren Bengals, and the Saints will do the same with the stumbling Falcons in the NFC South. We’ll also have a battle of the Big Apple in Giants-Jets, and an incredible prime-time double feature with Vikings-Cowboys and 49ers-Seahawks on Sunday night and Monday night, respectively.
Without further ado, here’s a live look at the lines at sportsbooks in the US as we begin looking toward Week 10.
Week 10 NFL spreads
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Week 10 predictions and analysis
Chargers (-1) at Raiders — Thursday night
Two AFC West and interstate rivals right in the thick of the division battle face off to kick off Week 10. The visiting Chargers have seemingly righted their ship with back-to-back wins, the most recent an impressive 26-10 home defeat of the red-hot Green Bay Packers in Week 9. Meanwhile, the Raiders upended an NFC North opponent themselves, toppling the Detroit Lions by a 31-24 score Sunday to move their home record to 3-1.
Both squads have proven capable of winning and losing close games, and with both teams on equal rest and very evenly matched, the thin one-point spread seems appropriate. The interesting aspect is that it’s the road team that currently owns the projected advantage. Los Angeles does own wins in each of the last four games of the series, and the Raiders are only 8-22 against Phillip Rivers during the latter’s 15-plus seasons.
Rivers could be primed for a rewarding night through the air, with the Raiders continuing to prove highly vulnerable to the pass. Matthew Stafford (406 passing yards) became the latest quarterback to eviscerate their secondary Sunday. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Hunter Henry are an excellent starting point for Rivers in terms of exposing that weakness. Melvin Gordon also looked to finally be back to his normal self in Week 9, although he’ll face a stingier matchup versus Oakland’s run defense. Nevertheless, due to his protracted holdout to open the season, Gordon could arguably have the most rested legs of any skill player on the field Thursday.
The Raiders will also have some favorable paths to offensive success versus a Chargers defense that had been suspect prior to a surprisingly dominant showing against Green Bay. Oakland will likely look to attack in balanced fashion, as has been coach Jon Gruden’s signature thus far. Rookie Josh Jacobs continues to essentially prove matchup-proof, taking plenty of pressure off Derek Carr and the team’s good-but-nowhere-near-great receiving corps.
We’ll check back Thursday afternoon to see where the line sits, a possible Over on the 48-point projected total could certainly be in play if that number still holds on gameday.
Cardinals at Buccaneers (-4.5)
72% of tickets and 61% of money bet on Arizona Cardinals at FanDuel Sportsbook
We have one of the more interesting lines of the week to kick off the early window of games in Week 10. The Cardinals acquitted themselves well in Week 9 against one of the toughest matchups in the week in the 49ers, which took place Thursday night and therefore affords Arizona extra rest coming into this game. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers endured another defensive breakdown Sunday against the Seahawks and now face a diversified and complex offensive attack headed by a quarterback with elite rushing skills.
The Bucs are 0-2 ATS at home this season and 2-6 versus the number overall this season, so their outlook for a cover isn’t exactly rosy based on the numbers. Arizona’s rest advantage could be further amplified by the fact Tampa had to travel back across multiple time zones after the grueling defeat at Seattle.
FRIDAY UPDATE: The line has held steady throughout the week. Tampa is finally back home after a lengthy stint as road warriors, which seems to be keeping them as firm favorites here. However, while the Bucs are certainly due for a win, a cover isn’t such a slam dunk in my view. Tampa’s secondary has been poor enough to make them a liability against essentially any offense. That could be especially true against a diversified, aggressive offensive scheme that will be run by a team with extra rest in the Cardinals. David Johnson also makes his way back for Arizona for this game, putting him in what could be a dangerous tandem with Kenyan Drake. The different elements in play here put me in the camp of a Cardinals cover.
Falcons at Saints (-14)
60% of tickets and 61% of money bet on New Orleans Saints at FanDuel Sportbook
The embattled Falcons will be coming off a much-needed bye week, one which coach Dan Quinn and his staff rather surprisingly survived unscathed. Of more importance is that Matt Ryan is expected to be fully ready to resume his duties under center after recovering from his ankle injury. Meanwhile, in a fitting reminder of how things have gone for Atlanta this season, even their bye doesn’t give them a rest advantage over the opposition – New Orleans is coming off their off week as well and should have an even healthier Drew Brees than the one that threw for 373 yards and three scores in his first game back from thumb surgery.
This will be the first meeting of the year for the NFC South rivals. New Orleans has taken three in a row in this series and notched a 31-17 win in the home installment of the rivalry last season. The Saints have been adept at covering this season as well, tying with the Rams for an NFL-best 6-2 mark ATS overall. That includes a 3-1 mark at home, but this spread is the biggest they’ve faced all season.
FRIDAY UPDATE: Ryan or no Ryan, the betting public isn’t buying the Falcons as a team capable of giving the Saints much of a fight. As mentioned earlier, both squads are coming off bye weeks. Therefore, the rest equation is equal, but the talent gap is considerable, especially on defense. New Orleans has scored 10- and 14-points wins against Atlanta the last two times they’ve faced them at home. Therefore, a cover here isn’t out of the question. However, these are two teams that know each other well, and the Falcons should have some spring in their step after the bye. Even with a healthy Alvin Kamara back in the fold, I’m leaning toward the Falcons sliding in under this big number.
Ravens (-10.5) at Bengals
83% of tickets and 77% of money bet on Baltimore Ravens at FanDuel Sportsbook
This line is a candidate for most likely to be bet up during the week. That holds true even with the Bengals theoretically rested coming off their bye. The Ravens just dethroned the world champs (in a regular-season capacity, of course) Sunday night and will be flush with confidence coming into this divisional matchup. In fact, the real concern here for coach John Harbaugh will be protecting his team from a major letdown and overconfidence. Those factors appear to be at least influencing what could arguably be considered a not-large-enough 10-point spread to start the week.
So, too, might be the close 23-17 win Baltimore squeezed out over Cincy back in Week 6. However, that game still featured Andy Dalton at quarterback for the Bengals. This time around, it will be fourth-round rookie Ryan Finley at the controls. That could certainly make life much more difficult, even if A.J. Green is finally ready to make his season debut as is looking more likely.
FRIDAY UPDATE: Green won’t be out there after all for Finley, which makes the rookie’s outlook all the bleaker. Cincinnati simply hasn’t been able to threaten defenses downfield when Green and John Ross have both been out of the lineup. That’ll naturally be the case again here, yet the spread has only climbed another half-point in favor of Baltimore. As mentioned earlier in the week, this number arguably doesn’t encapsulate the difference in talent between the two teams. I see the Ravens running away on the road by at least two touchdowns.
Bills at Browns (-2.5)
54% of tickets and 38% of money bet on Buffalo Bills at FanDuel Sportsbook
Then, this line is right up there with the Cardinals-Bucs as one that could be likeliest to bet down or flip altogether as the week goes on. Sure, one could argue the Browns are due for a win, but their on-field product continues to make that seem a bit far-fetched. Their latest trick was managing to lose to a pedestrian Broncos offense that recently traded away its 1-A receiver in Emmanuel Sanders and that was starting a quarterback in Brandon Allen that had never thrown an NFL regular-season pass before Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Bills took care of their business at home against the Redskins in Week 9. While the run defense surprisingly showed some cracks against the apparently ageless Adrian Peterson, this is still a stout unit that is actually allowing over six points fewer per game on the road (12.3, compared to 18.8 at home). Meanwhile, Cleveland averages a modest 18.0 points per home tilt and is 0-3 ATS in the Dawg Pound this season.
FRIDAY UPDATE: I’ve been looking at this line with skeptical eyes since it opened. Given the Browns’ recent track record, it’s surprising that Cleveland’s projected edge was actually bet up another half-point this week. Granted, Freddie Kitchens’ crew has too much talent not to get back in the win column one of these weeks. However, given how sluggish the offense has been, it doesn’t figure to be easy when they do. The Bills have traveled well this season, as evidenced by their 3-0 record. However, those wins have come against the Jets, Giants and Titans. Therefore, a Browns victory is within the realm of possibility, but I see it as a squeaker if it happens. I’m leaning toward a Bills cover.
Lions at Bears (-7)
56% of tickets and 36% of money bet on Detroit Lions at FanDuel Sportsbook
This battle of NFC North underachievers is going to be an interesting one to watch throughout the week in terms of the line. Both clubs currently see their playoff hopes in serious danger of spiraling in early November after respective Week 9 losses. For Detroit, the defensive questions that continue to plague them were once again evident while giving up 31 points to the Raiders. On the Chicago end of things, the Bears fell to the Eagles in yet another game where Mitchell Trubisky’s ability to lead the offense has to be called into question. Trubisky threw for just 125 yards in what was the Bears’ fourth straight loss.
The Bears did win both 2018 meetings between the teams, notching a 12-point victory in the Soldier Field installment specifically. However, it’s worth noting Chicago is just 1-3 straight up and against the spread at home this season. The Lions are 2-2 ATS as a road squad, while both teams are 1-1 versus the number in NFC North tilts.
FRIDAY UPDATE: The line was bet down a half-point over the course of the week but should climb back above the key number of 3. If Chicago were facing a team with a better defense than the Lions’ suspect unit, that number would be even smaller, if not altogether evaporate. However, a Detroit team that’s made even slightly above-average or inexperienced quarterbacks (Derek Carr, Daniel Jones, Kyler Murray) look very good this season could be the cure for what ails Trubisky and the rest of his teammates on that side of the ball. The fact rookie running back David Montgomery should also be able to find his fair share of running lanes against the Lions’ front seven will certainly help Trubisky’s cause.
SUNDAY UPDATE: Matthew Stafford has been ruled out with a back injury, forcing oddsmakers to take this game off the board Sunday morning. It has reopened at close to a touchdown at most books. Jeff Driskel will start in Stafford’s place against the Bears.
Chiefs (-6.5) at Titans
93% of tickets and 94% of money bet on Kansas City Chiefs at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Chiefs made it through another game with All-World quarterback Patrick Mahomes (knee) after he was ruled out Sunday morning. Mahomes stood a fairly high chance of reinjuring his kneecap if he took the field Sunday according to reports, so Matt Moore simply put together a 275-yard performance to lead KC to the last-second victory over Minnesota. That avoided yet another Arrowhead loss for the Chiefs and put them in very good position with Mahomes quite possibly returning to action.
Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill continued to put up aesthetically pleasing numbers for the Titans against the Panthers, but some of the warts that have followed him throughout his career reemerged. Tannehill threw two interceptions and took four sacks against Carolina in a more lopsided loss than the 30-20 score would imply. Of note is the fact KC is a perfect 4-0 straight up when traveling this season, and 3-1 ATS under those conditions as well. That’s in sharp contrast to a Titans team that is just 2-2 at home and 1-2-1 versus the number there.
FRIDAY UPDATE: As expected, Mahomes has been confirmed as starting Sunday’s game. That development did bring the expected bump in the line, although admittedly, not by as much as I’d expected. That’s naturally good news for those wanting to bet on a Chiefs cover. Kansas City when hitting on all offensive cylinders is head and shoulders above anything Tennessee can throw out on that side of the ball. And a so-so Titans defense doesn’t figure to slow down Mahomes much, particularly with Malcolm Butler (wrist) now on injured reserve. While Derrick Henry could give KC’s sometimes questionable run defense problems at times, I see the Chiefs covering this number fairly comfortably.
Giants (-3) at Jets
77% of tickets and 74% money being bet on New York Giants at FanDuel Sportsbook
This battle of New York is going to be one of the more fascinating between teams with losing records this season. With the Giants’ Week 9 Monday night showdown against the Cowboys still ahead of them as of this writing, Big Blue’s franchise outlook suddenly looks exponentially brighter than the Jets. That would have been a highly unlikely proposition prior to the season starting. Suddenly, the Giant’s young franchise quarterback looks considerably better than the Jets’, as does every other part of the G-Men’s offense.
Coach Adam Gase is in even more of a pressure cooker following the Week 9 loss to the previously winless Dolphins. It was a bad week overall for Gase and the Jets front office with trade-deadline drama involving star players Le’Veon Bell and Jamal Adams. Adams in particular certainly wasn’t placated by the putrid showing down in Miami on Sunday.
Gang Green will have the rest advantage here, but the oddsmakers clearly see the difference in dynamic and direction between the two franchises at the moment. The number could naturally move in either direction depending on how the Giants’ NFC East showdown on Monday night shakes out, so we’ll revisit later in the week.
FRIDAY UPDATE: The Giants were dealt with pretty handily by the Cowboys on Monday night. However, the line has held firm, checking in at the same 2.5 points it was Monday. This will essentially be a home game for both squads, so there’s no real advantage there. What is evident is each squad has offensive personnel that could win its fair share of battles against the other squad’s suspect defense. Sam Darnold has done absolutely nothing to inspire confidence the last couple of games, but New York has been repeatedly beatable in the secondary this season. While I could see this game as a toss-up in terms of the moneyline and spread, a shot on the Over for a projected 44.5-point total is certainly viable here. For what it’s worth, the Over has a combined 9-8 mark in the two teams’ games this season.
Panthers at Packers (-4.5)
69% of tickets and 65% money bet on Green Bay Packers at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Panthers were rather fortunate to draw a just-average Tennessee Titans squad at home in Week 9, allowing them to quickly get over the sick feeling of a 51-13 drubbing at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers in Week 8. Carolina looked to be back to business with a three-touchdown performance from Christian McCaffrey and Kyle Allen showing some impressive chemistry with D.J. Moore. That was in sharp contrast to a Packers squad that looked shockingly incompetent on the road against a Chargers team that had struggled to find consistency all season, including on defense.
Green Bay’s stumble is likely playing a part in this number not being at least a point higher. However, this is Lambeau we’re talking about as the setting for this Week 10 conference battle. The Pack has defended home field well, boasting a 4-1 home mark straight up and a 3-2 tally ATS there. Our late-week revisit of this number should be interesting, as there’s certainly a chance the projected advantage narrows a bit for Aaron Rodgers and company despite their impressive home record.
FRIDAY UPDATE: This line has also held firm throughout the week. The big news for the Panthers this week was the placement of Cam Newton (foot) on injured reserve, but that has no appreciable impact on this game. Kyle Allen has been impressive save for one big meltdown against the 49ers. The matchup against the Packers defense here isn’t prohibitive by any stretch. Green Bay’s deficiencies against the run (127.7 rushing yards allowed per game), Christian McCaffrey could certainly play a significant role. Meanwhile, a Panthers defense that’s now tops in the NFL in sacks (34) could certainly make life difficult for Rodgers. Given these factors, I see Carolina doing enough to keeping this within less than five points, at minimum.
Rams (-3.5) at Steelers
69% of tickets and 77% of money bet on Los Angeles Rams at FanDuel Sportsbook
A few weeks ago, the idea of just a four-point advantage for the Rams over a Ben Roethlisberger– and very possibly James Conner-less Steelers team would have been hard to fathom. But, after three straight wins for Pittsburgh over the Chargers, Dolphins and Colts, this is where we stand. The Rams will come into this contest with two straight wins and fresh off a bye, but it’s worth noting those two victories came against the lowly Falcons and Bengals. Prior to that, Los Angeles notably fell short against the stiffer competition presented by the division-rival Seahawks and 49ers, as well as to the vertically aggressive Buccaneers offense.
Pittsburgh has clawed back to a winning record at Heinz Field, now sporting a 3-2 mark straight up and against the spread there. They got by the Colts on Sunday with Jaylen Samuels doing far more damage as a receiver (13 receptions) than as a runner (10 yards), and they also lost yet another running back in Trey Edmunds to a rib injury that’s still being assessed fully as of Monday afternoon. Therefore, another challenge in terms of available personnel seems to await Mike Tomlin and his crew in the inter-conference matchup against a more rested squad – Conner stands a chance of missing a second consecutive contest due to his shoulder problem.
FRIDAY UPDATE: The Rams’ projected advantage has come down a half-point, perhaps partly influenced by the confirmed absence of Brandin Cooks (concussion). However, Josh Reynolds is a capable replacement, as he demonstrated in multiple games last season while spelling Cooper Kupp. Pittsburgh also had a notable wideout injury crop up late in the week — JuJu Smith-Schuster is now questionable after apparently sustaining a foot injury in Friday’s practice. That development could lead to the Steelers having to take the field without their two most explosive players on offense, considering Conner has already been ruled out. The attrition and the fact the Rams are also coming off a bye make this a real tough spot for the Black and Gold — I’m seeing a Rams win and a cover.
Dolphins at Colts (-10.5)
72% of tickets and 69% of money bet on Miami Dolphins at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Dolphins were so bad early in the season, not many seemed to notice when they progressively played more competitively in recent games. Sure, the bare-bones roster is still an issue, but Fitzmagic can be a funny thing when capturing it on one of its upswings. That was the case Sunday at the expense of the Jets, sending Miami into the Week 10 riding the wave of their first win.
The Colts were in nowhere near as jovial a mood after not just dropping a two-point decision to the Steelers at Heinz Field, but losing starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett to an in-game MCL sprain. That injury comes on the heels of T.Y. Hilton suffering a non-contact calf injury in practice last week, one that already cost him Week 9 and projects to keep him out for this contest as well. Brissett’s status for Week 10 is very murky as of Monday afternoon. However, with backup Brian Hoyer a reasonably capable backup that threw three touchdowns Sunday, the oddsmakers don’t seem too thrown by a possible Brissett absence if the line is any indication.
This will be one of those fluid numbers that will depend on Brissett’s status as the weekend approaches. We’ll check back Friday, but at first glance, this is a fairly large number for a team that tends to play close to the vest on offense even when it has all its healthy pieces.
FRIDAY UPDATE: The stock on all quarterback sorcery is apparently down this week. Not only has Minshew Magic been extinguished in Jacksonville, but FitzMagic isn’t making much of an impression on the betting public this week. That’s the case even with Brissett labeled a game-time decision with his knee injury, and with both Hilton (calf) and Parris Campbell (hand) both confirmed out. However, it’s worth noting the Dolphins also lost one of their few bright spots this season in their Week 9 victory of the Jets — Preston Williams was felled by a knee injury. And, running back Mark Walton was suspended for four games by the league earlier in the week. These two absences should prove costly, and even though I can see Miami giving Indy a tough time for a bit, I see the Colts pulling away for the cover.
Vikings at Cowboys (-3.5)
52% of tickets and 36% of money bet on Dallas Cowboys at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Vikings can be excused for dropping a last-second decision to the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 9, especially considering they lost Adam Thielen to a reaggravation of his hamstring injury early in the game. However, that also makes their Week 10 outlook, one that’s affected by a likely Thielen absence, relatively worrisome. Thielen had a full two weeks to nurse the hammy back to health prior to Sunday; the fact it took less than a full quarter for him to pull up lame again casts serious doubt as to whether it would be prudent to roll him out just seven days later, regardless of how healthy he might proclaim himself to be.
The Cowboys will wrap up Week 9 with a matchup against the Giants on Monday night. Naturally, this line will most likely look different in some form by Friday afternoon, due to both Monday night’s game result and a likely confirmation that Thielen will be unavailable for Minnesota. On paper, Dallas has a nice advantage when it comes to their chances of covering. They boast a 3-1 mark ATS as a home squad, while the Vikes are 2-3 against the number when traveling.
FRIDAY UPDATE: As expected, Thielen has been ruled out for Sunday’s game. However, the Vikings have proven capable of performing well without him. The fact the line has only climbed a half-point in Dallas’ favor is a testament to that in a way. Minnesota still has enough weapons against a solid-but-far-from-elite Cowboys defense. The Vikes also have extra urgency within their division after losing last week’s heartbreaker to the Chiefs. The spread here is a tough one to handicap due to the very close match these two squads are, but the total does catch the eye. Even though each team’s defense can be stout, an Over bet on the projected 48.0-point total is one I’d consider.
Seahawks at 49ers (-6.5) – Monday night
75% of tickets and 68% of money bet on Seattle Seahawks at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Seahawks came out on the winning end of another shootout in Week 10, toppling the Buccaneers in overtime by a 40-34 score. However, questions in the secondary persist for Seattle, which gave up yet another 300-yard passing performance Sunday, this time to Jameis Winston. Seattle will face a San Fran franchise they’ve beaten in 10 of their last 11 tries, but that sports a defense completely unlike any of those from previous years.
The 49ers will also come into this contest with the benefit of the extra rest playing the Thursday night game in Week 9 afforded them. San Francisco has mainly gotten by on offense with an excellent, diverse ground attack this season, but that’s starting to shift a bit. They’re now much better equipped to exploit any of Seattle’s deficiencies against the pass with Emmanuel Sanders in the fold. The former Bronco has scored in each of his first two games with the Niners and has now had extra time to immerse himself into Kyle Shanahan’s offensive system after having to play his first pair of contests with the team within nine days of being dealt from Denver.
FRIDAY UPDATE: The 49ers not only held steady as favorites this week, their projected advantage was bet up a half-point. That’s the case even with George Kittle (knee/ankle) and Matt Breida (ankle) both sporting questionable designations through the first two practices of the week. Saturday will be the final day of official prep with the game unfolding Monday night, so it will be interesting to see what would happen to this number were Kittle to be ruled out. Even with a healthy Kittle, the number is a bit on the elevated side for a division game. I see a Niners win here, but the lean would be toward the Seahawks managing to keep this close enough to come in under the number. If there were to be notable line movement Saturday with any Kittle- and/or Breida-related news, we’ll check back in with additional commentary.
Betting information courtesy of numberFire