Each week during the NFL season, TheLines will compile a list of implied team totals. In other words, NFL Week 10 implied team totals are how many points each team is expected to score this week, based on simple math with the spread and over/under.
All lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of Nov. 8, rounded to the nearest whole number.
NFL Week 10 Implied Team Totals
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Highest NFL Week 10 implied team totals
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The Cowboys looked like an unstoppable, high-flying offense the entire season until hitting a rut in a very surprising spot, at home against an injury-ravaged Broncos unit. The final score and stats don’t even tell the tale. Denver had a 30-0 lead before the Cowboys put some garbage-time drives together.
The Cowboys do get some good news on the injury front with the return of WR Michael Gallup, who hasn’t played since Week 1. That puts their three-headed WR monster back out there.
However, the big question will be whether LT Tyron Smith can return. The Cowboys offense has performed notably worse without him over the past few years, often turning into a total pumpkin like they did against Denver. It’s a curious phenomenon as there are plenty of other strong players on the line. Fortunately for Dak Prescott and Co., the Falcons are tied for dead last in adjusted sack rate, per Football Outsiders.
The market expects a big rebound with one of the highest totals of the season.
Last week in this space, we sounded DEFCON 4 alarms on the Bills offense. On paper they were doing just fine and putting up plenty of points. Beneath the hood, however, some problems appeared to be festering.
Those problems came to a head in the ugly 9-6 loss to Jacksonville. The team’s running backs toted nine times for 22 yards. The Jags sat on everything short and brought textbook tackling. Surprisingly, their moribund pass rush overwhelmed the Bills offensive line.
The Bills have a lot to figure out. Teams are going to dissect this tape and bring the same game plan to the table until the Bills staff shows they can get people loose deep and/or run the ball for consistent yardage.
That’s what makes this week’s matchup with the Jets so fascinating. The Colts just completely trucked the Jets on the ground, but that’s not something the Bills are really equipped to do. The market expects a big day for the offense, but should it?
The Colts appear here for the second straight week. The offense has been finding its footing of late as the star-studded line has gotten healthier. The schedule has helped too, and that continues this week with the Jags.
Despite the strong performance against the Bills, the Jags still rate bottom five in the league in EPA/play. Most of that is due to their weak pass defense as they’ve actually been quite strong against the run all year.
Most likely, the game plan they used against Buffalo won’t work here. They’ll need to commit more resources to the box to stop this running game which should open things up for Carson Wentz.
As long as Wentz stays away from the disastrous turnovers, this looks like a good spot for the Colts to keep rolling. The team has quietly inched up to sixth in EPA/play and come in off extra rest following the Thursday game. Frank Reich has guided this flawed group to the best of his abilities and this should be a coaching mismatch as well.
Lowest NFL Week 10 implied team totals
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A Baltimore defense that many expected to be among the league’s best has instead been one of the weaker units in the league. They rank 26th in defense DVOA and 22nd in EPA/play.
Despite that, the Dolphins look to be in some trouble this week. That’s especially true if Jacoby Brissett draws another start at QB with Tua Tagovailoa nursing a broken finger. Brissett “guided” the offense to 3.6 YPP and five turnovers against the Texans. Despite not appearing to be much of a downgrade on paper, Brissett just hasn’t gotten this offense moving at all this season when he has played.
The Ravens are still bringing a ton of heat with the fourth-highest blitz rate. A weak Dolphins offensive line that has been bottom 10 in adjusted sack rate looks like an easy target.
Keep an eye on Tagovailoa’s status this week and adjust expectations downward if he’s out.
Despite the big win against the Bills, the Jags offense can’t really take any of the credit. They got a pitiful 3.8 YPP against admittedly the league’s top-ranked defense. They totaled 139 passing yards. That’s not going to get it done most of the time.
The Colts had a pretty blah defensive showing on paper against the Jets last week. They allowed a passing offense led by Josh Johnson to post 7.4 YPA.
How much of that was due to guarding a big lead in lackluster fashion in a blowout?
Overall, the Colts have been quite strong against the run — second in EPA/play — but teams have had success passing on them. But, the Jags just haven’t gotten anything going through the air this year. On paper, this looks like a great spot for the Colts defense to put the clamps down.
It’s pretty tough to overstate just how bad Carolina’s offense has gotten.
From Week 4, Sam Darnold has been the worst quarterback in the league by a very large margin according to the EPA/CPOE composite rankings. Keep in mind that Davis Mills also qualifies for that chart but he hasn’t even been close to Darnold’s level of awful.
The Panthers have scored in single digits in two of the last three. Darnold hit a new low against the Patriots with three INTs and a fumble.
Arizona’s defense has not gotten the fanfare of the offense but they have been plenty good as well. They rank second in DVOA and fifth in adjusted sack rate. Darnold’s woes will likely continue as the market expects a league-low or close point total.
Other Notable Implied Team Totals
The Seahawks have received confirmation that Russell Wilson will return after several weeks away nursing a finger injury. Geno Smith had some stretches of decent play, but considering the line moved about a touchdown in the week Wilson got hurt, this should boost the Seattle offense greatly.
But, the injuries have really started to pile on the Packers. DT Kenny Clark was the latest to go down injured. He didn’t return to the KC game and joins Za’Darius Smith, Jaire Alexander and rookie standout Eric Stokes on the sideline for now.
The Seahawks could be in a better spot to put up points than the market thinks.
Kansas City Chiefs
Speaking of the Packers defense, they bottled up the Chiefs passing game to an absurd degree.
Numerous drops and high winds contributed greatly to the final numbers. But, it was still jarring to see Patrick Mahomes wind up with 4.2 YPA. That’s two of the past three weeks where the Chiefs have been completely shut down by a defense that isn’t ranked particularly strongly by the advanced metrics.
The Chiefs have fallen from their usual perch in the highest totals list but they still rank just behind. Twenty-seven points is still a healthy amount even in today’s NFL.
There’s still time to get their act together, and the Raiders make for an interesting opponent. Their defense is sort of the mirror image of the Chiefs offense in the most literal mirror sense. They brought little talent to the table on paper this year and had low expectations but have consistently overachieved. The pass rush looks legitimately strong but everything else looks beatable aside from perhaps CB Casey Heyward Jr.