Eli’s NFL Week 10 Best Bets: Picks For Browns At Ravens, Commanders At Seahawks
With NFL Week 10 odds ready to kick off, this article aids bettors with price discovery and handicapping point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals across NFL betting sites. In particular, Ravens vs. Browns and Seahawks vs. Commanders stood out — juxtaposed with my NFL betting model. With that in mind, let’s examine my NFL Week 10 best bets for these games involving AFC North odds and the NFC playoff picture.
Click any odds to place a bet at the best sports betting sites. The following numbers represent the best odds available in your state.
bet: under 38.5 combined points between Ravens and browns
Some bettors may be unfamiliar with the aforementioned term, price discovery. The process initiates as wagers come in on the opening spread or total. Early action is used to adjust the number. Sportsbooks may follow the same script of operators deemed “market makers,” tinkering with their prices because a polarizing competitor shifted theirs. Needless to say, liability tolerance (or lack thereof) could be enough to modify the odds themselves, too.
Regarding the total of this critical AFC North matchup, it opened around 38.5 before getting bet down to 37.5. However, this market had a buyback, reverting near the initial number. Let’s ignore their previous meeting with this handicap, as it involved Browns rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center.
Expect Rock Fight In Charm City
For bettors who doubt one or both of these defenses, look away. Even if you factor in garbage time, the Ravens and Browns surrender a top-four EPA per play and success rate. The latter metric signifies that a play is successful if it gains at least 50% of the yards required to move the chains on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third or fourth down. Hence, these units are elite at limiting explosive and efficient sequences by the opposition.
Granted, Deshaun Watson slightly boosts the Browns’ passing attack. But he still ranked league-average in adjusted EPA per dropback, among other metrics, against the lowly Cardinals. Plus, he’ll be without his starting tackles to open the campaign, as Jedrick Wills was put on IR with an MCL injury. Baltimore doesn’t generate ample pressure, yet it possesses a stout linebacker group — led by Roquan Smith — with unique disguises in Mike Macdonald’s zone scheme.
Conversely, Lamar Jackson is right near the top of the NFL MVP odds board. Todd Monken, the Ravens’ first-year offensive coordinator, has answered the bell by increasing their pass rate over expectation (PROE) from his predecessor Greg Roman. That said, Baltimore operates at a bottom-10 adjusted pace. Cleveland ranks just slightly ahead of them in that department. Therefore, this game projects for one of the slowest combined tempos among Week 10 odds. That certainly benefits the under.
Combine those variables with the familiarity factor between the two coaching staffs, and I’m willing to back a low figure, as it sits above the key number of 37. The return of Browns cornerback Greg Newsome III (groin) is an added bonus, given Jackson’s inefficiency against man-to-man coverage.
|Offense Ranking OFF RNK||21st||7th|
|Defense Ranking DEF RNK||1st||2nd|
|Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG||321.2||366.1|
|Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG||260.5||273.9|
|Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG||186.1||207.5|
|Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG||2||1.2|
Should the total dip below 38 again, look to live bet this market. Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord to receive instant alerts whenever I make a bet. Head over to the #roles server to enroll in the push notifications.
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bet: commanders (+6.5) to lose by six points or fewer (or win outright)
On the surface, bettors anticipate a bounce-back showing from Seattle after its blowout loss in Baltimore. Remember that the preseason look-ahead line had Pete Caroll’s team as a four-point favorite. Circa Sports, the industry’s sharpest operator, opened at -5.5. Meanwhile, Washington is in the midst of a defensive transition after dealing edge rushers Montez Sweat (Bears) and Chase Young (49ers) before the trade deadline.
Market Overvaluing Seattle?
As I dove into for my NFL underdog column, the Seahawks’ odds (4-3-1 ATS) have taken a turn for the worse despite benefiting from one of the league’s easiest schedules. Their defense, allowing a slightly above-average EPA per play, finally underwent some negative regression against the Ravens. First-round defensive back Devon Witherspoon has outperformed expectations, but the remainder of the secondary is vulnerable.
Enter Sam Howell, who has produced the NFL’s sixth-highest Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) since Week 4. Based on the types of passes QB attempts, this metric measures how many more (or fewer) passes one completes, relative to the projection. In this category, he ranks behind only Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Dak Prescott. The acquisition of OC Eric Bienemy, who came over from Kansas City in the offseason, has paid dividends for the defacto rookie.
In fact, Howell also finds himself ahead of his counterpart, Geno Smith, in adjusted EPA per dropback during this stretch. Seattle’s signal-caller has the third-worst ranking among qualified QBs. Smith’s seven interceptions have finally caught up to him, too, after he notched the fifth-highest percentage of turnover-worthy plays at his position last season.
There are a pair of advantages in Smith’s favor. He’ll face a softer defensive front, which struggled to manufacture sacks without Young and Sweat, against the Patriots’ subpar offensive line on Sunday. Granted, it’s noteworthy that Washington exceeded its season average in pass-rush win rate. Moreover, Lumen Field possesses a top-tier home-field advantage to the point spread. Should Howell face a negative game script, it will assuredly come into play.
Nevertheless, this spread is inflated because of the Seahawks’ misperceived market rating. If Bienemy continues to successfully script in an expeditious passing attack, Washington should keep this game tight — at the least.
|Offense Ranking OFF RNK||16th||19th|
|Defense Ranking DEF RNK||29th||23rd|
|Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG||336.2||325|
|Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG||379.8||353.7|
|Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG||236.2||231.2|
|Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG||1.8||1.2|
If you’re unable to nab the hook on the Commanders by the time you’re reading this article, I’d bet them down to +6 (-110). Good luck with your NFL Week 10 best bets.
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