With NFL Week 1 about to kickoff, we have what can be one of the most historically volatile weather weeks of the early NFL season. September NFL weather risks include high heat in the south, and chances of storms along the Atlantic coast.
This week is no different, with five games being played outside with potentially volatile weather, including four that could lead to this year’s first game delay due to lightning. Click on the odds anywhere in this post to bet now or toggle between the Over/Under and spread.
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New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
South Florida in September always runs two risks – heat, and thunderstorms. Games have been delayed or even postponed for hurricanes, and when the games do play, Miami can sometimes get a real advantage from knowing the oppressive, South Florida heat that can come.
Current forecast for Miami on Sunday is 89F with a risk of thunderstorms and rain – if it starts to pour, the game could be more run heavy, as the coaching staffs take the ball out of their young quarterbacks’ hands. The forecast as of Thursday has winds at 5 to 10 mph and chance of rain at 60%.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
A storm in Cincinnati plays well for the Steelers, who have the definite disadvantage at QB but do have second-year RB Najee Harris looking to build on a good 2021. For the Bengals, taking the ball out of Joe Burrow’s hand doesn’t seem like a great option. So they’ll have to hope the rain holds off, or at least is weak until after the game.
The current forecast as of Thursday has a high of 77F with winds S at 5 to 10 mph. The chance of rain is 60%.
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
Chicago is the only one of the games on this list not looking at much in terms of thunderstorm risk, but it does have a strong chance of rain and wind, which would take the sails out of any passing game that either team wants to try.
Especially with the likelihood of wet and windy conditions, it’s likely that Kyle Shanahan – with a second year QB and a penchant for running the ball arguably too much anyways – will leave heavily on his run game. What new Bears OC Luke Getsy will do with Justin Fields is a bit more unknown, but with two mobile quarterbacks, the weather might demand an amount of creativity.
As of Thursday, the forecast calls for sustained winds of 13 mph, gusting up to 30 mph with showers more than likely at 60% and a high near 74F.
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers
The chances of some storms coming in off the Atlantic coast does bring a risk, but it doesn’t look like it’ll be too much, at least not to the point of changing game plans as of now (not that Cleveland QB Jacoby Brissett is likely going to be chucking it much anyways).
The forecast for Charlotte at the time of publish: a high of 78F with winds at 6 mph and precipitation at 60%.
New York Giants at Tennessee Titans
Tennessee will be big fans of the risk of thunderstorms coming their way because a damp, wet game feeds into their biggest strength offensively – pounding Derrick Henry at every opportunity. For the Giants, a wet game might be their biggest curse, given how fumble prone Daniel Jones is even in good weather, and this does take away a lot of Jones’ deep passing chances.
Sunday’s forecast in Nashville: scattered thunderstorms in the morning, then mainly cloudy during the afternoon with more thunderstorms likely. High 82F. Winds at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
That concludes the NFL Week 1 weather report, as all other games are indoors.
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