NFL Picks: How I Am Betting Sunday NFL Week 1
I cannot adequately express how excited I am for the NFL to be back. From the draft to free agency, to the offseason and preseason, we’ve dissected every move by every team in an attempt to form an opinion strong enough to warrant a wager on Week 1 odds. I’ve built a decent offseason portfolio from MVP odds, division winner, win totals, and prop bets based on information and intuition. Now it’s time to back it all up on the field with NFL Week 1 picks.
Each week, I’ll share my thoughts in an easily digestable bulletpoint format. Some will be bets I’ve made. Some will be general thoughts from my research. Some will be pointing out interesting things within the various betting markets. All of it, you’ll hopefully find informative and perhaps you find something that compels you to make (or fade) a bet.
Thursday Night Football NFL Week 1 Picks
Chiefs vs. Ravens
One of the first bets I made when lines hit in the offseason was Chiefs -2.5 to open the season against the Ravens. You can still find . If you’re a recreational bettor, there are also profit boosts available to get the price even lower.
I’m a little bit lower on the Ravens than the market, given their attrition in the offseason. While I still like them to make the playoffs, this bet simply comes down to me just liking this matchup for Kansas City. They got Patrick Mahomes a new toy in Xavier Worthy, along with year two of Rashee Rice, and until I see with my own eyes that he’s fallen off, you still have Travis Kelce.
But the defensive scheme of letting teams do a little running on you, but playing super tough pass defense I think will serve them well in this game against the Ravens. We all know rushing is less optimal than passing. And as good as the Ravens are running the ball, you have to be so incredibly efficient for that to keep up with what Patrick Mahomes and Co. do through the air.
Not having Hollywood Brown hurts, for sure, but the Ravens lost their all-world defensive coordinator, Mike Macdonald, as well as many major contributors from last year’s squad. Give me the defending champs to cover, even if you have to pay -3 at even money near kickoff. That’s still an acceptable bet.
Sunday NFL Week 1 Picks
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins
I’m willing to be wrong. I am much higher than market on this team. Jacksonville still has a lot of weapons on offense and a pretty solid defense. So, I took the +3.5 with the Jags.
Further, the Dolphins enter this game at least a little beat up with Bradley Chubb on the PUP and Jaelan Phillips, Jaylen Waddle, Jevon Holland, and Jalen Ramsey all on the injury report (though most are expected to play).
The Dolphins were middle of the pack in EPA/play allowed on defense last year while losing multiple starters from last year’s squad. Even if you think there’s not a massive dropoff with the guys they brought in, it may take a game or two for everything to gel with them and the new defensive coordinator.
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears
I took the +4.5 with the Titans. I have real questions about how good the Bears will be right out of the gate and have this game closer to a field goal.
6-Point Teaser: Bengals -2.5 vs. Patriots & Cowboys +8.5 at Browns (-120)
TheLines.com’s Eli Hershkovich checked to see which sportsbooks offer the best prices on teasers this year. Be sure to not pay more than -120.
Teasers were brutal to start last year before normalizing as we progressed through the season. That said, it’s not a certainty that we start off cold this year. While I normally like to get a better idea of what the teams look like before getting deeply involved with teasers, there are a couple of options that do jump off the page.
Leg 1: The most obvious leg is taking the Bengals down from -8.5 to -2.5. I have the Patriots as the worst team in the league by a big margin, and have Cincy easily covering 2.5 at home.
Leg 2: The other that screams “BET ME” is taking the Cowboys up to +8.5 from +2.5. It’s a low total game (), which makes those points even more valuable. Oh yeah … we still haven’t seen Deshaun Watson throw a football. Every single one of our rankers at TheLines.com has the Cowboys a decent amount ahead of the Browns in our NFL Power Rankings. Despite the game being on the road, getting 8.5 is so very tempting.
NFL Week 1 Survivor Picks & Free Contest With $10,000 Prize!
TheLines.com’s Mo Nuwwarah also shared his breakdown for Survivor Week 1 picks.
With it being contest season (cheap plug, Stephen Andress and I do a survivor podcast each week found here, along with the NFL MonsterPod breaking down every Sunday afternoon game), and you’re about to have to make some decisions. Remember, first and foremost, know the rules of your pool. Secondly, consider the size of your pool, as this will dictate how aggressive/contrarian you’ll need to be. And lastly, take advantage of planning sites that can help you along the way. We have a free week at PoolGenius here:
NFL Week 1 Odds Comparison Table
Latest NFL Betting News
RELATED ARTICLES
