NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks: Schedule Release Sets Up Divisional Trend For Texans At Colts

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
NFL Picks

Immediately after the 2024 NFL regular-season schedule was released on Wednesday night, betting lines followed suit. It all kicks off on Sept. 5, as the Chiefs begin their title defense against the Ravens, in which Patrick Mahomes & Co. are field-goal favorites. However, there are more way-too-early NFL Week 1 odds and picks to monitor over the next few months, including an AFC South matchup between the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts. Let’s dive in.

Click on any NFL odds below to place a wager. These markets are courtesy of the best NFL betting sites.

NFL Week 1 picks: Texans at Colts odds

Divisional Trend To Consider

In recent seasons, Colts bettors in Week 1 haven’t cashed in often. Since 2008, they have gone 2-13-1 straight up and 1-14-1 against the spread (ATS) in their opening regular-season game.

Combine that with the Texans’ offseason hoopla, especially after trading for wideout Stefon Diggs from the Bills, and Houston could be a popular selection among NFL Week 1 picks. Remember that the Texans also went to Indy in the 2023 regular-season finale, upending their rivals in the waning moments to clinch the AFC South title. Colts tailback Tyler Goodson dropped a fourth-down pass to seal the game.

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Nevertheless, divisional home underdogs have been profitable for NFL Week 1 picks. Over the last 20 years, they’ve gone 25-13 ATS.

That is not a trend you should blindly bet on. Still, it hints that a road favorite’s market rating could be too high when facing an opponent familiar with its scheme or personnel.

Evaluating Potential Week 1 Picks

There’s no denying that Texans signal-caller CJ Stroud will presumably build upon his 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. He finished above league average among qualified QBs in adjusted EPA per dropback, success rate, and air yards. Stroud ranked No. 1 in the latter category, which measures the distance the ball travels from the line of scrimmage to the target on all pass attempts.

This metric doesn’t always tell the tale of success. Desmond Ridder, the Falcons-turned-Cardinals QB, placed No. 7 in this department last year. But Stroud’s deep ball correlates with his overall efficiency in the above metrics.

Conversely, one may argue the belief in Stroud and the Texans improving is already baked into the market too much.

Moreover, Indianapolis should enhance its playoff hopes after nearly earning a berth into the dance last season. Don’t forget that second-year QB Anthony Richardson missed most of his rookie campaign with a right shoulder injury. He’s a dark horse for NFL MVP odds, priced at .

If Richardson’s productivity is even close to MVP-caliber, the Colts could “upset” the Texans and cash in on your NFL picks. The addition of second-round speedster Adonai Mitchell only strengthens one of the league’s most underrated collections of skill-position talent. The best spread odds for Indianapolis in this matchup are .