3 Biggest NFL Week 1 Line Moves at Caesars Sportsbook

Written By FairwayJay on August 12, 2022 - Last Updated on August 15, 2022
nfl week 1 line movement

The countdown is on for the start of the 2022 NFL regular season. Opening kickoff is less than one month away, and sportsbooks are ramping up their power rankings and betting odds with football drawing the largest handle of the sports season. We’ve already seen some significant NFL Week 1 line movement following the schedule release and opening Week 1 odds on May 12.

Caesars Sportsbook shared with TheLines the three biggest line moves so far for the opening week.  

“Since these games have been up for a while they accrue much more action than in a normal week where there is just a week to bet,” said Adam Pullen, Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook. “It’s among the biggest (handles) every year.”

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3 Biggest Spread Shifts In NFL Week 1 Line Movement

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams

  • Bills +1 to at LA Rams

The Thursday Night Football kickoff on Sept. 8 is a marquee matchup with the current favorite in Super Bowl odds Buffalo Bills traveling across the country to tackle the reigning Super Bowl champion LA Rams.

This is the only Week1 spread where the favorite has flipped. The Rams opened -1 and now the Bills are a 2.5-point favorite at Caesars, led by 2022 MVP favorite Josh Allen.

The Bills have taken 74% of the total bets and 88% of the total dollars wagered among all spread bets in this major match-up.

“The [Matt] Stafford elbow injury reports are definitely concerning,” said Pullen. “We don’t quite know the severity of it, but people will always react to that type of news. Combine that with the Super Bowl banner being raised and the emotions involved, and it’s not surprising to see the Bills getting bet and the line move in their favor.”

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

  • Saints -3 to at Atlanta

The most lopsided spread action in bets and money is on the Saints. A whopping 94% of the total number of tickets and 98% of the total dollars wagered are on New Orleans. The Saints have a NFL win total of over/under 8.5 wins at Caesars Sportsbook. The Falcons are projected to finish last in the NFC South and have a season win total of 4.5.

One New Jersey bettor is looking for a 5-figure score with an $11,000 bet on the Saints (-4) at a key number before the line move. That same bettor made four other $11,000 Week 1 wagers on road team – Patriots +3 at Dolphins, Ravens -4.5 at Jets, Packers -1.5 at Vikings and Broncos (-3.5) at Seahawks.

“The Falcons are in the post-Matt Ryan era, and it remains to be seen how they’ll perform,” Pullen said. “But on paper, they’re projected as one of the worst teams this season. Louisiana sports betting customers love the Saints, and they’ve been hammering Saints and Jameis Winston futures all offseason. So it makes sense that Louisiana money has made up the bulk of the action on this game.”

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

  • Packers PK to at Minnesota

The late afternoon NFC North rivalry is moving the Packers way with a short point spread. The game opened pick ’em and is now Green Bay -2 at Caesars, where the Vikings are 31-17 at home in the regular season since billion-dollar U.S. Bank Stadium opened in 2016. The Packers are -130 on the moneyline while the Vikings are +110.

The Vikings beat the Packers last November at home 34-31 as a slight underdog in a thrilling contest and last-second field goal.

The Packers have taken 64% of the bets and 84% of the spread money thus far at Caesars Sportsbook, which is offering a risk-free bet up to $1,500. Reigning MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 14-10-1 as a starter against the Vikings with 54 TD passes and 7 interceptions.

Prime Time Week 1 Line Movement

Sunday Night Football

The Sunday Night Football game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys has shifted from Bucs -3 to on the road with the Cowboys drawing 84% of the spread money wagered. The recent NFL betting news of QB Tom Brady stepping away from the Buccaneers to deal with a “personal matter,” is worth monitoring as Week 1 approaches.

Monday Night Football

The juicy storyline surrounding the Monday Night Football game between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks is significant. New Broncos QB Russell Wilson returns to face his former team of 10 years in Seattle. The Broncos moved from -3.5 to with bettors banking on the Broncos as 97% of the point spread money wagered is on Denver.   

“Monday night handles are always huge,” Pullen said. “But the fact this is the first one of the year and it’s this big of a storyline, it’s going to be quite interesting to see how much we’ll need the Seahawks in that game.”

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FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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