NFL Week 1 Implied Team Totals: Chiefs At Top Of Board Again

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on September 6, 2022
NFL implied team totals

Each week during the NFL season, TheLines will compile a list of implied team totals. In other words, NFL Week 1 implied team totals are how many points each team is expected to score this week, based on simple math with the spread and over/under.

Readers can make use of these team totals in a variety of ways for NFL Week 1 and beyond. Those ways include handicapping props, making fantasy decisions, etc.

All lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of Sept. 6, rounded to the nearest whole number.

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NFL Week 1 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalOpponentLocationSpreadOver/Under

Highest NFL Week 1 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalFanDuel Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price

Kansas City Chiefs

The team at the top comes as no surprise to readers of this column last year or NFL fans in general. Kansas City has lit up scoreboards with incredible consistency since Patrick Mahomes’ ascension to starting QB in 2018.

The roster did take a hit in terms of high-end talent, though, with the exit of Tyreek Hill for greener (much greener) pastures in Miami. He takes an average line of 83.6 catches, 1,207.4 yards and 10 TDs with him, and the Chiefs opted to try to replace that production with volume. They brought in rookie Skyy Moore along with vets JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

We’ll see how that goes for them starting Sunday, but the market certainly remains bullish. With the brilliant offensive mind of Andy Reid still directing Mahomes, it’s not hard to see why.

What’s perhaps most interesting about this one is how the Cardinals secondary will fare. They performed admirably (sixth in EPA/play allowed) in 2021 despite a relative lack of talent. Certainly a solid pass rush aided them, and Chandler Jones’ exit could disrupt things and cause a chain reaction.

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo begins with a high-profile Thursday Night Football matchup taking on the defending Super Bowl champs.

While big things are expected from the market-anointed Super Bowl favorites, the Bills do have a notable potential weakness up front on offense. PFF projects the unit just 20th, and it’s difficult to argue with only Dion Dawkins and potentially Rodger Saffold expected to bring a high level of play.

Facing off against Aaron Donald and Co. will not provide the new Bills line a comfortable spot in which to gel. Josh Allen looked superhuman escaping the clutches of KC’s rushers last time we saw him, but that sort of thing can go the other way in a hurry if defenders consistently get their hands on him.

One thing to watch: how quickly will the Bills integrate Isaiah McKenzie into Cole Beasley’s old role? Beasley served as Allen’s favorite release valve, and McKenzie could actually provide more potential for turning these short gains into bigger plays.

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Editor’s Note

Lowest NFL Week 1 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalFanDuel Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price

Chicago Bears

Justin Fields put up a horrifying -28.4% DVOA in 2021 as a rookie. Playing for the widely derided Matt Nagy behind a mediocre offensive line, he did not have much of a chance to succeed.

However, the situation doesn’t look much better, if at all, for 2022. The line looks pretty poor, and the wide receiver corps is about as bad as you’ll find in the NFL after the departure of Allen Robinson. Sure, Darnell Mooney is solid, but that’s about the only plus target Fields gets this year.

We saw what an elite pass rusher did to this line when Myles Garrett terrorized Fields in a six-point performance where Fields tallied one net passing yard. Nick Bosa will breathe down his neck on Sunday, and Fields likely won’t find much in the quick game with Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw patrolling the intermediate area.

Houston Texans

Davis Mills actually showed flashes of decent play in an awful situation in 2021. He return to try to build on his rookie season but has a somewhat daunting first test, at least if 2021 results have any bearing. The Colts held him to a total of three points across two matchups, though Mills did not play the entirety of the second game.

Houston’s offense looks like it will be pretty rough once more. Lovie Smith does not inspire much confidence (on that side of the ball) on the sideline after a poor stint coaching in college. The pass catchers look atrocious outside of notable bright spot Brandin Cooks.

Watch for the battle on the edges between Houston’s tackles and Indy’s pass rushers. That may determine whether the Texans have a chance to get over their team total here. Yannick Ngakoue and Kwity Paye make for a pretty formidable pair, but Laremy Tunsil at LT and Tytus Howard at RT should be the strong points of Houston’s protection. If they can hold off the pass rush, the Colts do have multiple question marks in the secondary.

Other Notable Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalFanDuel Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price

San Francisco 49ers

Of teams expected to win in Week 1, the 49ers have one of the lowest expected point totals at 24. A few things make this an interesting spot for them.

Obviously, for one, what will Trey Lance bring to the table in his first start after an entire offseason of prepping to be the guy? Presumably, Kyle Shanahan has had more time to tailor the offense to Lance’s skillset. Lance’s expectation in the rushing department has been the subject of much speculation and many wagers.

Chicago doesn’t project to have a great defense or even a good one, in all likelihood. But, if Lance can’t threaten them with downfield throws, they can crowd the line of scrimmage and limit the 49ers offense.

Additionally, the early forecast includes some rain. Chicago has a notoriously poor field, so things could get difficult for Lance and Co. in that sense as well.

Jacksonville Jaguars

This one has the potential to go any which way because of the range of outcomes around the Jaguars offense.

Just how much did Urban Meyer hold everyone, but especially Trevor Lawrence, back? Lawrence was remarkably awful last year. Of QBs even approaching starters’ snaps, he finished 29th of 31 in EPA+CPOE composite.

While Washington doesn’t have an especially threatening secondary, they do have a fierce pass rush. And the Jags do not have an offensive line that looks even league average. If Lawrence finds himself under a lot of pressure and doesn’t make a second-year leap, this could look like many of last year’s ugly losses.

But, the team bringing in an adult in the room at head coach, and one who has gotten great QB play out of otherwise iffy QBs, bodes potentially well.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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