NFL Week 1 Implied Team Totals: KC, Tampa Bay Expected To Drop 30

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on September 6, 2021
NFL Week 1 implied team totals

Each week during the NFL season, TheLines will compile a list of implied team totals for every NFL team. In other words, NFL Week 1 implied team totals are how many points each team is expected to score, based on the spread and over/under.

Readers can make use of these team totals in a variety of ways for NFL Week 1 and beyond. Those ways include handicapping props, making fantasy decisions, etc.

All lines come from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sept. 6, rounded to the nearest whole number.

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Highest NFL Week 1 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalDraftKings Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Buccaneers3030.5-125-105
Chiefs3030.5-105-125
Bills2827.5-115-115
Ravens2827.5-115-115
Titans2727.5-110-120
Packers27OTBOTBOTB
49ers2727.5+100-130

Not many surprises at the top of the list in Week 1. Nearly all of the teams expected to score the most points are among the top 2022 Super Bowl contenders.

Note that of these teams, Kansas City (facing Cleveland), Buffalo (Pittsburgh) and Green Bay (New Orleans) have the stiffest competition in terms of opposing expected defensive strength.

As far as weather goes, the Saints and Packers could face some wind and rain in Jacksonville.

One final note: the Titans look the likeliest to see some potential extra time since that game has the closest line of these — Titans vs. Arizona.

Lowest NFL Week 1 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalDraftKings Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Bears1817.5-105-125
Lions1918.5-115-115
Giants2019.5-120-110
Jets2019.5-125-105
Texans2120.5-120-110
Dolphins2120.5-110-120
Steelers2120.5-115-115

The Rams had the NFL’s strongest defense in 2020, according to Football Outsiders weighted DVOA. Facing a Bears unit that’s rolling out Andy Dalton after a rough go in 2020, they figure to feast. The market has tabbed the Bears as one of just two teams likely to fail to reach 20 points.

The other: the ever-downtrodden Detroit Lions. They play a 49ers defense ravaged by injuries in 2020. San Francisco should trot out a formidable unit, but how will the departure of star defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to the Jets affect them?

Other Notable Implied Team Totals

As weak as the market expects the Falcons to be in 2021 — they have one of the lower win totals in the NFC at  — they still play in a dome and start a productive veteran QB in Matt Ryan. Given their bottom-of-the-barrel defense, you may find them in the upper portions of this article throughout the season. Atlanta has a Week 1 implied team total of 26.

The Broncos have the lowest implied team total of the Week 1 favorites at about 22 points. Both they and the Giants look to boast solid defenses on paper. Neither team will likely enjoy more than average QB play.

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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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