Best NFL Week 1 DFS Games, Stacks, Lineup Picks To Target | Daily Fantasy Football
The return of the NFL this weekend also marks the hotly-anticipated return of DFS. The opening weekend of the season offers plenty of exciting matchups, but not much in the way of barnburners. That means NFL Week 1 DFS players are going to have to get creative out of the gate with roster construction and stacks. I hope to help with that. Kansas City and Detroit officially kick off the year on Thursday with the highest Over/Under in Week 1 odds. For Sunday’s slate, the Dolphins at Chargers and Bengals at Browns headline high-point total matchups ripe for the DFS picking.
As you begin to build your DFS lineups for the week, I recommend first looking at over/unders. NFL Week 1 odds can help nudge you in the direction of high-scoring affairs, which is exactly what you want in your DFS lineups.
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NFL Week 1 DFS Games To Target
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Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (O/U )
Just one game on the weekend slate has a total of over 50 points. Naturally, large GPP pools are going to be packed with Chargers and Dolphins. Expect a lot of stacks from this game. As roster percentages trickle out this week, top expected players include Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Austin Ekeler. As a lesser-priced option, Tua Tagovailoa may also be a popular pick over Justin Herbert, who is a bit more expensive. Rookie sensation Devon Achane – should he play in this game (shoulder) – presents a free space option that will almost certainly be one of the top-rostered players from this game.
Last season, the Dolphins finished 26th in dropback EPA. Jalen Ramsey won’t return to the team until December at the earliest and a couple other defensive backs are battling injuries; check the Wednesday injury report to see what the extent of the damage will be for Miami’s secondary.
Loading up on Miami’s backfield may be more fruitful than their pass game in this one. Star left tackle Terron Armstead may not play and the Chargers ranked 29th in rush EPA a season ago. While they added veteran linebacker Eric Kendricks this offseason, the Bolts would need a drastic turnaround to rise to league average against the run. With Achane and speedster Raheem Mostert at their disposal, the Dolphins’ backfield has a lot of explosive play potential.
Neither back costs all that much, though you may be dealing with high roster percentages in large GPPs.
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Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (O/U )
Just two other games have an Over/Under above 45 for the main Sunday slate – the Buccaneers at Vikings and this one. Ja’Marr Chase tops the list of projected points but is also one of the most expensive receiver options. Chase did haul in 10 receptions for 119 yards and a score in the Bengals’ last outing against the Browns (Week 14 last year), but failed to usurp 50 yards in either of the two other matchups. Notably, Browns Pro Bowl corner Denzel Ward has not yet cleared concussion protocol. Tee Higgins offers a less expensive, but still upper-echelon option for the Bengals and for you to consider in DFS stacks.
On the Cleveland side, Nick Chubb offers an expensive player that may be worth a consideration as a staple for your build. Chubb has an extended history of success rushing against the Bengals (88.6 yards per game, seven touchdowns in nine games) and, as Deshaun Watson continues to struggle, expect Cleveland to lean on Chubb early and often.
The Bengals finished 17th in rushing success rate allowed last season and added no players to their front seven. Run-stuffing safeties Jessie Bates and Von Bell both left in free agency.
NFL Week 1 DFS Games To Avoid
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (O/U )
Sure, this game offers the third-highest point total of the Sunday main slate (), but your options are limited. Tampa Bay has to figure out their offense under Baker Mayfield and the Vikings‘ top DFS options come in the form of Justin Jefferson and not much else proven. Notably, rookie receivers don’t come out of the gate on fire, so Jordan Addison is a stay-away for me this week. KJ Osborne was fixed to be the No. 2 on this team until the Vikings offered a lucrative contract to TJ Hockenson.
The bottom line is that even the third-highest total isn’t expected to be a barnburner. One side has locked-in and expensive options while the Buccaneers are total wild cards as to whether their offense will be able to generate much.
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Games With Totals Under 40
Not that many popular DFS options are out the window here, but these two games have point totals under 40 and are best off avoided this week:
- Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (O/U )
- Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders (O/U )