NFL Week 1 Betting Angles: Bengals At Browns, Packers At Bears Odds

There's three months and change between now and NFL odds kicking off in the regular season. But here's a critical nugget to keep in your back pocket for NFL Week 1 betting.

Since 2013, divisional underdogs are 28-9 against the spread (75.7%) in their season opener. No, that’s not a trend you should blindly bet. But it justifies the notion that a favorite’s market rating may be too high, given the opponent's familiarity with a given scheme or personnel. Let's take a look at a pair of teams that could fit that mold.

Click on any of the following odds to place a wager.

NFL Week 1 Betting: Bengals At Browns

[global_data id=818251]

As I noted in my recent article on the Bengals, they possess one of the more inflated NFL win totals. Not only has Cincinnati reaped benefits of its fair of share injury luck over the last two seasons, but their defense was also fortunate to face the highest percentage of subpar or backup quarterbacks (positioned No. 30 or worse in EPA) in 2022.

The Browns' Deshaun Watson represented one of those signal callers. Nevertheless, expect Watson to have more success with another offseason in Kevin Stefanski's explosive offense. Couple that with the addition of slot receiver Elijah Moore — paired with Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones.

Cleveland bolstered its defensive front, too, acquiring Dalvin Tomlinson and Za’Darius Smith. The Browns certainly have their fair share of upside on both sides of the ball to compete in a loaded AFC North (and maybe even Super Bowl 58 Odds).

While I'm not completely sold on Watson returning to a Pro Bowl level (2018-2020), there are enough grounds to consider fading Joe Burrow & Co. to kick off Sunday's portion of Week 1.

More Week 1: Packers At Bears Odds

This line initially opened with the Bears favored by a single point. However, they were quickly steamed up to -2.5. The movement insinuates that the market doesn't have much faith in Jordan Love replacing Aaron Rodgers with the Packers.

But why is there so much buy-in on Justin Fields at the same time? Sure, Chicago upgraded its receiving corps by trading for former Panthers wideout DJ Moore. That said, Fields finished No. 24 among QBs in EPA+CPOE composite ranking last season.

• Completion Percentage Over Expected, or CPOE, measures how much higher (or lower) a QB's completion percentage is — relative to what it is anticipated to be. It's centered around the kinds of passes he's attempted.

There's plenty of time to dig into this matchup further, but the current spread seems to be a bit of an overreaction — especially if it hits the key number of a field goal.

NFL Betting Promos And Bonus Codes

If you're a resident of the Bluegrass State, there will be plenty of Kentucky bonus codes to take advantage of once the state officially launches online sports wagering. TheLines has you covered with the best nationwide online betting sites, too.

Join TheLines.com free sports betting Discord channel — with nearly 4,200 members talking NFL odds and more.

#

Sportsbook

Bonus

Features

Bet

1

Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win

• Wide coverage of US and international sports
• Linked to MGM Rewards loyalty program
• Regular odds boosts and promos

Bet Now BetMGM Review

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US) 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Promotional offers not available in Mississippi, New York, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.

2

New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $200 in Bonuses Instantly!

• Wide coverage of US and international sports
• High-quality iOS and Android apps
• Very fast withdrawal times

Bet Now DraftKings Review

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/NH/PR/WY). Void in CAN. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new DraftKings customer. $5+ first-time bet req. Max. $200 issued as non-withdrawable Bonus Bets that expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 7/19/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

3

New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days

Bet Now FanDuel Review

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT). Hope is here. GamblingHelplineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). Call 1-877-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ (18+ DC, IA, KY, WV) only. New users only or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Casino, First online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Min $5 wager required for 5 consecutive days. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable Bet Reset tokens. Refund from token issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bet that expire 7 days after receipt. Max refund $200 per day. Restrictions apply, including token expiration. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook. Call 1-877-770-7867 (LA).

4

10 x $100 bet match in FanCash

• Unique FanCash loyalty program
• Variety of bonuses and ongoing promos
• Fast, reliable app with live betting and streaming

Bet Now Fanatics Review

Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER OR CALL 1-800-MY-RESET, www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), (800)-327-5050 or gamblinghelplinema.org (MA), Call (877)8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), (888) 789-7777 or ccpg.org (CT), morethanagame.nc.gov (NC), 1800gambler.net (WV)