NFL Week 1 Betting Angles: Bengals At Browns, Packers At Bears Odds

Written By Eli Hershkovich on May 18, 2023
NFL Week 1 Betting

There’s three months and change between now and NFL odds kicking off in the regular season. But here’s a critical nugget to keep in your back pocket for NFL Week 1 betting.

Since 2013, divisional underdogs are 28-9 against the spread (75.7%) in their season opener. No, that’s not a trend you should blindly bet. But it justifies the notion that a favorite’s market rating may be too high, given the opponent’s familiarity with a given scheme or personnel. Let’s take a look at a pair of teams that could fit that mold.

Click on any of the following odds to place a wager.

NFL Week 1 Betting: Bengals At Browns

Free Pick’Em Contests! Compete for prizes every day by entering our free betting games. MLB, NBA, NHL, and more!

As I noted in my recent article on the Bengals, they possess one of the more inflated NFL win totals. Not only has Cincinnati reaped benefits of its fair of share injury luck over the last two seasons, but their defense was also fortunate to face the highest percentage of subpar or backup quarterbacks (positioned No. 30 or worse in EPA) in 2022.

The Browns’ Deshaun Watson represented one of those signal callers. Nevertheless, expect Watson to have more success with another offseason in Kevin Stefanski’s explosive offense. Couple that with the addition of slot receiver Elijah Moore — paired with Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones.

Cleveland bolstered its defensive front, too, acquiring Dalvin Tomlinson and Za’Darius Smith. The Browns certainly have their fair share of upside on both sides of the ball to compete in a loaded AFC North (and maybe even Super Bowl 58 Odds).

While I’m not completely sold on Watson returning to a Pro Bowl level (2018-2020), there are enough grounds to consider fading Joe Burrow & Co. to kick off Sunday’s portion of Week 1.

Watch: NFL Futures, Preakness Stakes Betting Strategy

The NFL portion starts at 22:05. If you’re interested in the audio-only version of this episode, subscribe on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.

More Week 1: Packers At Bears Odds

This line initially opened with the Bears favored by a single point. However, they were quickly steamed up to -2.5. The movement insinuates that the market doesn’t have much faith in Jordan Love replacing Aaron Rodgers with the Packers.

But why is there so much buy-in on Justin Fields at the same time? Sure, Chicago upgraded its receiving corps by trading for former Panthers wideout DJ Moore. That said, Fields finished No. 24 among QBs in EPA+CPOE composite ranking last season.

  • Completion Percentage Over Expected, or CPOE, measures how much higher (or lower) a QB’s completion percentage is relative to what it is anticipated to be. It’s centered around the kinds of passes he’s attempted.

There’s plenty of time to dig into this matchup further, but the current spread seems to be a bit of an overreaction — especially if it hits the key number of a field goal.

NFL Betting Promos And Bonus Codes

If you’re a resident of the Bluegrass State, there will be plenty of Kentucky bonus codes to take advantage of once the state officially launches online sports wagering. TheLines has you covered with the best nationwide online betting sites, too.

Join free sports betting Discord channel — with nearly 4,200 members talking NFL odds and more.

UP TO $1,250 BONUS
New User Bonus. T&Cs Apply
DraftKings Promo: Bet $5 Get $200
PLUS $50 Bonus Bet On Deposit
PLUS Up to $1,000 On Deposit
OH only. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. T&Cs apply
To Claim: Click Play Now
UP TO $1,250
On Caesars
Stream NFL Games In App For Free
+ Get 1,000 Caesars Reward & $1,000 Tier Credits
Redeem for Bet Credits, Hotel Stays, & More!
OH only. 21+.Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER
Use Promo Code: LEGALFULL
UP TO $1,000
In Bonus Bets
$1,000 Paid Back in Bonus Bets
Free Live Streaming - Watch Live Games 
21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Use Bonus Code: PLAYBONUS
$100 BONUS
2nd Chance Bet Credit
2nd Chance Bet up to $100
ONLY 1x Play Through!
21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Use Exclusive Affiliate Code: PLAYRIV
Bet $1
GET $200
In Bonus Bets
Deposit required. Bet $1, Get $200 in Bonus Bets
30% Extra on Same Game Parlay Profit
OH only. 21+.Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER
To Claim: Click Play Now
No Sweat First Bet
Up to $2,500 No Sweat First Bet
Available on Desktop, Android & iOS  
21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
To Claim: Click Play Now
up to $250
In Bonus Funds
125% Deposit Match Up to $250
Best Odds Boosts in Ohio State
21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
To Claim: Click Play Now
GET UP TO $1,111
In Fred Bets
Bet $50 Get $111
Get $200 a Week for 5 Weeks 
Daily Odds Boosts
OH only. 21+.Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER
Use Promo Code: BETBONUS
Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich