Eli’s NFL Week 1 Best Bets: Bucs On Upset Alert? Browns vs. Cowboys Low Scoring?

As the odds for NFL Week 1 near kickoff, this piece will help assess price discovery and handicap point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals while shopping for the best NFL Week 1 promos. In particular, the Commanders at Buccaneers and Cowboys at Browns stand out — compared to my betting model. With that in mind, let’s break down my best bets for NFL Week 1.

Click any of the NFL betting odds below to place a bet. These sportsbook prices are the best available in your state.

NFL Week 1 Best Bets: commanders +3.5 (to lose by three or fewer or win)

Some readers are likely unfamiliar with the aforementioned term, price discovery. This activity starts when bets are made on the opening spread or total. Early action is used to adjust the number. Sportsbooks may follow the same script as operators considered “market makers.” They shifted their pricing because a competitor repositioned its own. Liability tolerance (or lack thereof) could be enough to reshape the odds at other sportsbooks.

Odds for the Commanders at Bucs have been available since mid-May. Thus, sportsbook users may not have access to the best number. But your power ratings (or perception) could differ enough from one or both teams’ market ratings.

Bucs’ Regression Incoming?

Tampa Bay was tied with Baltimore as the fourth-most profitable team against the spread (ATS) last season, tallying a 63.2% cover rate. That came after covering the fewest percentage of games in 2022. However, Todd Bowles’ team received plenty of positive variance.

The Bucs ranked in the top 10 in fumble and field goal luck. As noted in past columns ad nauseam, turnovers aren’t predictive.

Baker Mayfield and Co. also manufactured the biggest gap between EPA on early downs (25th) and late downs (3rd). With offensive coordinator Dave Canales bolting for the Panthers’ head coaching gig, Mayfield’s proficiency will inevitably undergo a dip in the latter category. Despite their below-average offensive line, they opted to rely on their ground attack, compiling the worst rushing success rate on first and second down.

Their offensive decline should begin in the season opener. Dan Quinn, Washington’s first-year head coach, will continue his aggressive defensive approach against Mayfield. Among qualified quarterbacks in 2023, Mayfield ranked No. 18 in completion rate (55.4%) when blitzed compared to a stout 70.2% completion rate with a clean pocket. For context, his lackluster showing with heat in the backfield finished slightly ahead of the lowly Zach Wilson.

Commanders’ Upside

With duel-threat rookie Jayden Daniels at the helm, the element of surprise could give the Bucs’ new-look defense fits. Tampa Bay lost Shaq Barrett, its best pass rusher, to retirement. To boot, the front office failed to adequately replace linebacker Devin White and corner Carlton Davis.

New offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury should exploit these weaknesses, especially with Daniels’ mobility against Bowles’ blitz-heavy scheme.

Doubters will point to Kingsbury’s 14-23-2 (38%) ATS record from Week 8 onward amid his tenure in Arizona. Nevertheless, he helped Kyler Murray cash in his odds for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2019. Now, Kingsbury gets to focus solely on the offensive side of the ball, which is a bonus.

Final Thoughts

Since being drafted in 2018, Mayfield has been 14-26-1 ATS (35%) as a favorite, the third-worst cover rate among QBs during this stretch. I bet 1.15 units on Commanders +3.5 (-115). Their best odds are Washington Commanders +4 (-108) on DraftKings.

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NFL Week 1 Best Bets: browns vs. Cowboys Under 41 (Combined Points)

Defense(s) Will Dominate

This bet revolves around the line of scrimmage, in which both defensive fronts should wreak havoc. The 13 mph winds in the forecast could also throw a wrench into the game script.

Under defensive wizard Jim Schwartz, the Browns paced the league in EPA, points per drive, third-down conversion rate, and success rate allowed. Even though they faced a slew of banged-up and mediocre QBs, including Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Clayton Tune, and Case Keenum, they inherited the sixth-worst injury luck.

Conversely, Dallas lost offensive linemen Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz in the offseason. With a pair of rookies in left tackle Tyler Guyton and center Brock Hoffman replacing them, Dak Prescott’s pass protection could experience some woes against reigning Defensive Player of the Year Award-winner Myles Garrett and an elite defensive line.

Meanwhile, Cleveland will employ Jack Conklin at left tackle after ACL, MCL, PCL, and meniscus tears put him on the shelf before the 2023 campaign began. With Jedrick Wills still recovering from his season-ending knee injury, Dawand Jones earns the nod at right tackle. Jones ranked in the 76th percentile among offensive tackles in PFF’s pass-blocking grade last season, but contending with three-time Pro Bowler Micah Parsons is another story.

Unless Deshaun Watson magically reverses course, his 35th-ranked EPA+CPOE composite rating from 2023 leaves much to be desired. His offseason should injury only hurts his outlook. With All-Pro tailback Nick Chubb beginning the campaign on the PUP list, Cleveland also lacks explosiveness in the backfield to take pressure off Watson against Parsons and Co.

Dallas replaced the aforementioned Qunn with the aging Mike Zimmer as defensive coordinator, but he inherits a defense that generated the No. 1 pass rush win rate last year.

Final Thoughts

I bet 1.10 units on under 43.5 points (-110). Although the total has been bet down over the last couple of weeks, I’d still play under at 42.5 (-110) on Bet365 or better. Good luck with your NFL Week 1 best bets.