One of the most common ways an NFL game can go off-script is when it is impacted by weather. It could be snow at Lambeau Field in December or the Miami heat in September, there are many ways that the elements can make a game go haywire. Below we will regularly make updates to our NFL weather page during the season regarding the potential betting impact of weather on games.
NFL weather for this week
Weather issues could come into play for a handful of this week’s games, including snow in Buffalo for the Browns versus Bills game.
Browns at Bills: The greater Buffalo area is expecting 3-6 feet of snow between Thursday and Sunday with the heaviest snow likely coming Thursday night and Friday morning. The NFL has been in contact with both teams regarding the possibility of relocation of the game. Ford Field, home of the Lions in Detroit, has been mentioned as a possible location.
Here are the lines for Browns at Bills as well as all of the other games this week.
Below we will look at some standard ways with which to consider NFL weather and its potential impact on a football game.
NFL weather: Typical Advantages
Early in the season, the Miami Dolphins often have an advantage as they have been practicing in the Southern Florida sun. The Dolphins have famously won some early season games against better teams in the Miami heat – most memorably beating Tom Brady’s New England Patriots by 13 points as a 4.5-point underdog in 2014.
Late in the season, Green Bay, Buffalo, Chicago and New England all have the risk of late home games being weather-impacted games. Usually you’re paying a premium in terms of spreads to bet the home teams, as they have experience in those spots – especially when playing against a warm-weather or dome team.
Impact on prop betting
The biggest potential impact of weather on NFL prop bets is in cases where high volumes of rain, snow, or wind make it so that teams can’t pass, like the Raiders versus Browns game from 2020 where the two teams combined for 233 passing yards, or the Patriots versus Bills game from 2021 where the Pats only threw the ball three times. In games where there’s extreme weather, quarterback Under passing yards and attempts, and Overs on running back carries and yards tend to be the plays – as passing is too unreliable and coaches change their typical offensive schemes.
NFL weather impacts – totals
Cold, but otherwise decent weather doesn’t usually have the same impact on offenses and passing, as the Bills showed in putting up 47 points in 11 degree weather against the Patriots on Wild Card weekend in Buffalo. Games with lots of rain and snow usually drive down totals, but doesn’t always mean it will go Under. Sportsbooks obviously adjust their lines based on weather, so it’s up to the bettor to decide if the book adjusted the line enough. Games with high winds, like the LV/CLE and NE/BUF games, did go substantially Under, but snow games are less likely to.
Lions versus Eagles in 2013 saw 54 points scored in blizzard conditions, and the Patriots once put 59 points up in a blizzard against the Titans. It’s not always as simple as adverse weather meaning to bet Unders.
The following teams play in a dome, closed roof or a retractable roof stadium, meaning these NFL teams are free of weather concerns when playing at home.
- Arizona Cardinals: State Farm Stadium
- Atlanta Falcons: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Dallas Cowboys: AT&T Stadium
- Detroit Lions: Ford Field
- Houston Texans: NRG Stadium
- Indianapolis Colts: Lucas Oil Stadium
- Las Vegas Raiders: Allegiant Stadium
- Los Angeles Chargers: SoFi Stadium
- Los Angeles Rams: SoFi Stadium
- New Orleans Saints: Caesars Superdome
- Minnesota Vikings: US Bank Stadium