NFL Week 7 Weather Report: Rain & Wind For Jaguars vs. Patriots In London

Don’t forget to set those alarms (again). In Week 7, the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) take on the New England Patriots (1-5) in their second consecutive game played in London. The U.K.’s adoptive NFL team is favored by Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 (-115) on FanDuel points in a game with a 43 (-115) on BetMGM point total. But while fans enjoy the game dry under the canopy of Wembley Stadium, players on the field may deal with notable winds and rain. Bettors, beware: we have our first NFL weather alert of the year!
Jaguars Vs. Patriots London Game Odds
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The “Jacksonville” Jaguars have gotten a chance to get more familiar with London this week. Last weekend, the Jags took a beating at the hands of the Bears, 35-16, in London and remained there this week to play a second consecutive game across the pond. In 12 total games, the Jaguars sit 6-6 in London, looking to return home above .500 (and, presumably, with the same head coach). A loss here likely sends Doug Pederson packing.
The Patriots made a change at quarterback following the 1-5 start in which they scored the second-fewest points per game (12.4). First-round rookie Drake Maye stepped in last week and threw for 281 yards. New England scored a season-best 21 points but surrendered 42 to the Texans. Maye gets a crack at the NFL’s worst passing defense in the Jags (32nd in pass EPA). Last week, rookie Caleb Williams completed 23-of-29 passes with four passing touchdowns. The week prior, 39-year-old Joe Flacco tossed for more than 350 yards and three touchdowns.
While the stats suggest a plus matchup for Maye and the Patriots through the air, Mother Nature might have something to say about the rookie’s opportunity.
NFL Weather: Rain, Wind To Impact Jaguars vs. Patriots In London
In case this game didn’t already feature a bleak enough offensive output (offensive Success Rate: Jaguars 22nd, Patriots 26th), high winds and persistent rain might muck things up even more. As of Thursday, the over/under for this game is lined at 41.5 points.
This game kicks off at 2:30 p.m. locally. Sunday’s forecast calls for rain throughout the contest and, more impactful, sustained winds approaching 20 mph. In recent history, rain has decreased passing production by over 10%. However, the wind has varying impacts on the passing game once it reaches 20 mph. For instance, it dictates how teams choose to defend, preferring to have their backs to the wind in the fourth quarter. High winds obviously carry the football when thrown with the grain and knock passes down against the grain.
At the NFL level, accuracy isn’t much affected with short and medium throws. Downfield passing does become an issue. Of course, the biggest impact comes from the kicking game. Winds in excess of 20 mph decrease the field goal rate by more than 10% from almost every distance.
Should wind become more apparent of an issue closer to kickoff, watch for this total to come down further.
Other than moderate winds for Texans at Packers and Titans at Bills, weather shouldn’t be much a factor elsewhere around the NFL.
NFL Week 7 Weather
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