NFL Thursday Night Football Kickoff Same Game Parlay Potential Picks & Best Bets For Lions vs. Chiefs
NFL same game parlays are now available at the best NFL betting sites for the 2023 Thursday Night Football opener! The Detroit Lions will face the Kansas City Chiefs in what should be a high-scoring thriller. The over/under for this game is set at . Below, we’ll highlight our NFL same-game parlay strategy for Thursday Night Football. Click on the odds to bet now.
NFL Same-game parlay MACRO STRATEGY
When piecing together same-game parlays, it is best practice to choose legs that correlate. Some outcomes increase the probability of other legs cashing and boost your mathematical probability of cashing the entire parlay. Finding correlations and actionable stats in teams helps boost the rest of your parlay legs.
When betting on player props, It makes sense to think of the expected game script and who will be leading toward the end of the game. With the Lions as sizable underdogs, there’s a decent chance they will have to go to a more pass-heavy approach. That also applies to the Chiefs, who could ease up and run the ball more if they get out to the lead the pre-game spread suggests is possible.
LIONS AT CHIEFS NFL Same-game parlay PICKS
Mahomes’ Chiefs have exceeded their team total in each of their last five Week 1 contests. Individually, Mahomes has banked league highs in Expected Points Added per play (0.54) and Success Rate (61%) in those games. Kansas City averages 37.8 points per Week 1 game over their last five. Given this, it’s likely this year will be similarly offensively minded.
The Lions Defense is also the worst unit on the field. 31st in EPA/play last year, the Lions are ripe to be ripped apart by the Chiefs. Given this, we’re looking to start this parlay with Chiefs Moneyline (). Chiefs going over their team point total is a correlated leg with this since that dreadful Lions defense increases the chances of the Chiefs scoring in bunches.
Bettors should have minimal concern over the status of TE Travis Kelce. The Chiefs star did hyperextend his knee in practice and will be a game-time decision on TNF. Regardless, Mahomes has produced a 2-0 record with a 69% completion percentage and a 104 QB rating in games without Kelce and former teammate Tyreek Hill.
- More TNF player props for Lions vs. Chiefs
Target The Trailing Lions
To continue the correlation, we will rely on the notion that the Lions are projected to be trailing in this game. Combining this game’s lofty point total (54), let’s key in on the Lions’ passing game. The matchup for these Detroit WRs is rather friendly, as Kansas City allowed the eighth-most passing yards last year. Kansas City also conceded the second-most touchdowns to wide receivers in 2022.
Despite the lack of touchdowns in 2022, Amon-Ra St. Brown to score an anytime touchdown () makes a ton of sense. Without Jamaal Williams to take all his touchdowns, betting on some positive TD regression makes sense. St. Brown was QB Jared Goff’s go-to target in the red zone in 2022, and he led all receivers league-wide in red zone targets from weeks 10-18. The Chiefs’ defense also surrendered the league’s most passing touchdowns in 2022 to bolster this leg.
We’ll bet St. Brown Over 60+ receiving yards for our last leg. St. Brown has banked 60+ receiving yards in eight of his last nine games and averaged 72 yards/game in 2022. This correlates well with a pass-heavy game script and a total in the 50s.
When making SGPs, ensure they’re well correlated and consider game outcomes and market projections. Best of luck with your own NFL same-game parlay!
Thursday Night Football GAME Preview and Betting Guide
Check out our Lions vs. Chiefs preview for full injury reports and offense vs. defense stats.
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