NFL Thanksgiving Betting Preview: New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings Spread

Written By Marco Cerino on November 24, 2022
patriots vikings spread

The 6-3 New England Patriots go on the road to Minnesota and face the 8-2 Minnesota Vikings in the nightcap of the Thanksgiving slate this week. Despite a 40-3 loss at home in Week 11 to the Dallas Cowboys, the Patriots Vikings spread has Minnesota as favorites and on the moneyline, with the over/under at .

In this article, we’ll take a look at the injuries and statistics for this significant inter-conference prime-time showdown. This includes examining the key metrics, top match-ups, and the best available odds for bettors looking to get action on this game.

PATRIOTS VIKINGS SPREAD, MONEYLINE, OVER/UNDER

Here is the Patriots Vikings spread table for this Week 12 contest. Go through the dropdown menu to select the preferred market, and find the most desirable price.

Spread bets are among the most popular options when betting NFL games, as they relate to the result and final score. As the favorite, the Vikings would have to win Thursday by four points or more to cover the -3 spread. The underdog Patriots would need to lose by two or less, tie, or win outright to cover that three points. A three-point Vikings win, like 27-24, would be a push and everyone gets back the money wagered. 

Moneyline bets are a preferred wager because they focus solely on who wins the game, regardless of margin of victory. This is a bet players can find across nearly all sports offered at books. At -160, the Vikings are considered significant favorites at home, despite only being -3 on the spread.

Total bets have done well in drawing in more players, especially for NFL games. The over/under focuses on the final score. 42 is a pretty standard number for a NFL contest, if a bit low. A 24-21 score would hit for Over 42 bettors, while 20-17 would cash for those holding Under 42 tickets. 

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PATRIOTS VS. VIKINGS PLAYER PROPS

Sportsbooks have offered more player-focused wagers and bettors are investing in them. In our dropdown menu, type in the name of a player or team to get the best available prices for various markets, like yardage or scoring odds. This is a good way to get a play on marquee names or work on a possible advantageous matchup for Justin Jefferson or Mac Jones.

PATRIOTS VS. VIKINGS BETTING NEWS AND ANGLES

Vikings Vs. Patriots Weather

Weather will not be a factor, given U.S. Bank Stadium is enclosed.

Vikings Vs. Patriots Injury Report

Minnesota Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Justin JeffersonWRToeProbable64.9
Christian DarrisawOTConcussionOut63.8
Za’Darius SmithOLBKneeQuestionable46.5
Akayleb EvansCBConcussionQuestionable28.6
Andrew Booth Jr.CBKneeQuestionable24.2

New England Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
David AndrewsCThighDoubtful54.8
DeVante ParkerWRKneeQuestionable43.3
Anfernee JenningsLBBackQuestionable33.6
Josh UcheLBHamstringQuestionable23.0
Marcus JonesDBAnkleQuestionable18.2

Vikings Offense Vs. Patriots Defense

Vikings OffenseStats (Rank)Patriots Defense
22.9 (13)Points/Gm16.9 (2)
0.4 (2)Points/Play0.3 (1)
338.5 (18)Yards/Gm302.8 (4)
234.9 (10)Pass Yards/Gm188.3 (4)
103.6 (24)Rush Yards/Gm114.5 (13)
5.3 (18)Yards/Play4.9 (6)
6.1 (24)Yards/Pass5.8 (4)
4.5 (15)Yards/Rush4.5 (17)
37.9% (21)3rd Down %36.9% (9)
58.3% (14)Red Zone %50% (6)
11 (9)Turnovers17 (5)
27 (21)Sacks36 (2)

Patriots Offense Vs. Vikings Defense

Patriots OffenseStats (Rank)Vikings Defense
21.3 (20)Points/Gm23.1 (19)
0.4 (2)Points/Play0.4 (18)
317.6 (25)Yards/Gm388.9 (29)
202.2 (24)Pass Yards/Gm267.3 (31)
115.4 (17)Rush Yards/Gm121.6 (18)
5.2 (19)Yards/Play5.9 (28)
6.9 (10)Yards/Pass7.6 (31)
4 (26)Yards/Rush4.4 (11)
37.7% (22)3rd Down %41.5% (23)
42.9% (31)Red Zone %71.4% (32)
17 (29)Turnovers18 (3)
28 (23)Sacks26 (15)

PATRIOTS VS. VIKINGS BETTING INSIGHTS

WHY THE PATRIOTS CAN COVER

The New England defense that has been the franchise’s trademark during the Bill Belichick era looks to be back after the 10-3 win at home against the Jets. The Patriots are 6-3-1 this year against the spread, while the Vikings are just 4-5-1 ATS. After dropping the season opener in Miami, the Pats are 3-0-1 ATS in road games, including covering the last two games as underdogs. On a short week on the road, this seems like a good Belichick spot for an outright win against a reeling opponent.

WHY THE VIKINGS CAN COVER

This seems like a major bounce-back spot for the Vikings after the drubbing they suffered at home to Dallas. Both of the Vikings’ covers at home (in wins against Green Bay and Arizona) came against shorter spreads, -2 and -4 respectively. This is a game to watch and do some price hunting, especially if the line drops in the Vikings’ favor to -2.5 or even lower. 

REASONS TO BET THE OVER

The Vikings are 5-5 on hitting the overs, including 3-2 at US Bank Stadium. Since their Week 2 loss in Philadelphia, the totals of their games have all been 43 or more (they might have hit Over 48.5 last week if their offense could get any traction against the Cowboys) and they have been 3-1 for the over as home favorites. New England is 3-2 on hitting overs after a win and 2-1 as a road underdog. Minnesota can score, especially at home. 

REASONS TO BET THE UNDER

New England has hit the under in six of their ten games, including their last three. They’re also 3-2 with hitting unders as a road team, while Minnesota have hit three unders in their last five games. The Thursday games where teams have short rest usually are lower-scoring affairs. New England brings the second-best scoring defense in the league on the road. 

PATRIOTS VS. VIKINGS PROPS: KEY MATCH-UPS

VIKINGS QB KURT COUSINS VS. PATRIOTS PASS DEFENSE

A lot has been made about Kurt Cousins’ efficiency outside of the 1 PM Eastern window. He enters Week 12 with the eighth-most passing yards but only tied for 13th in touchdowns passes. New England has played very well on pass defense, with top-five rankings in completion percentage, passing yards, along with interception and sack rates. Is that a product of their schedule (which has not yet faced the Bills) or does Belichick have another group he can trust in the passing game?

PATRIOTS RBs VS. VIKINGS RUSH DEFENSE

The Vikings got torched last week by Dallas’ two marquee running backs for 236 yards from scrimmage and four total touchdowns. New England has shown good balance this year in running the ball, led by Rhamondre Stevenson. Sunday’s win against the Jets was the third of his past four games where Stevenson’s receiving yardage outpaced his running numbers. Might be a chance to get some value with a dynamic back on a short week. 

VIKINGS RB DALVIN COOK VS. PATRIOTS RUSH DEFENSE

Dalvin Cook’s 799 yards this season puts him near the top of the NFL rushing leaderboard. Interestingly, he’s gotten 90 yards or more every other contest this year since Week 1. Last week, he rushed for 71 yards against Dallas. On a short week when Minnesota will want to possess the ball and New England will likely put more focus on Justin Jefferson and the Vikings’ pass attack, he could see less crowded boxes and opportunities for chunk gains. Can he crack the end zone against a stingy rush scoring defense that’s second-best in the NFL?

FINAL THOUGHTS

This is a really interesting game to handicap as a study in contrast. Minnesota looked awful in their loss while New England has some momentum entering the decisive stretch of their season. The Vikings’ first-year coach will face off against the multi-decade veteran in the hoodie. Both teams really need this game as this will be their last games in November. 

The money entering the markets so far have moved the line from Vikings -3.5 to -3 or even -2.5. The total has dropped from 43 to 42.5 or lower at some books. The night window might actually be advantageous to casual bettors looking to find value on this game.

Best of luck betting the Patriots Vikings spread.

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