NFL Week 4 Pace Report: 3 Teams To Note In Betting Team Totals

Written By Jeffrey Schreiber on October 2, 2022
nfl team totals

After studying implied team totals each week, the next step in handicapping full game Over/Unders and NFL team totals is to see what the pace statistics look like in each game. In other words, how fast does each offense want to operate? Will they attempt to run as many plays as possible or slow it down when leading, trailing, tied, or when the game is close?

Let’s take a look at three teams that stand out for Week 4 among NFL team totals – the Jaguars, Broncos and Packers.

TeamDraftKings Team TotalOpponentLocationSpreadOver/Under
Packers25PatriotsHome-9.540.5
Broncos21.5RaidersAway+2.545.5
Jaguars20EaglesAway+6.546.5

Jacksonville Jaguars Team Total Over/Under 20.5

Averaging a staggering 28 points per game through three weeks, the Jaguars face a strong defensive opponent in the Eagles, allowing the seventh-fewest points per game (16) to start 2022. The division-leading Jaguars have a winning record after three weeks for the first time in four years.

It remains to be seen how Doug Pederson’s return to Philadelphia goes from a scoring perspective. The Jaguars have run more plays each week this season, accumulating 75 plays in Week 3. There seems to be a clear emphasis on the pace of play early on from Pederson. The Jaguars had the seventh-highest pass rate in Week 3.

For the short time that their game in Los Angeles was close, the Chargers were still dared to throw against them, as the Jaguars present the best-graded run defense DVOA so far in 2022. Playing stout against the run causes Jacksonville to face the third-highest opponent pass rate through three weeks (69%).

Considering they’ve produced the fifth-most plays per game, Jacksonville’s top-eight points-per snap is especially impressive. Jacksonville will have their hands full with an Eagles team allowing plenty of opposing play volume (eighth most) but little scoring (26th most). The mountain of combined snaps yielded by Philadelphia’s games (135.7; third most) stems from a pace set by their offense.

After posting the second-highest rate of Week 3, Philadelphia ranks fourth on the season in average play-clock seconds remaining. The Eagles are fourth in no-huddle rate (21%). Like the Jaguars, Philadelphia is scoring at a high rate on a per-snap basis (seventh) while also running plenty of plays (69.3 per game; seventh). They rank second in yards per play and first in passing yards per attempt.

Pederson’s return to Philadelphia is a strong bet for a high-scoring affair featuring quarterbacks ranked fifth and sixth in EPA.

Denver Broncos Team Total Over/Under 21.5

“Is Russ washed?” That is the question Broncos team evaluators should ask. Denver has major red-zone problems, while they have failed to crack 20 points in any of their first three games played in 2022.

The hope going into their Week 3 matchup was for Wilson to take a step forward and look competent. Despite emerging victorious from a sloppy game, the Broncos are still searching for competency. To their minimal credit, the Broncos cut down on penalties and committed no turnovers, albeit while producing a putrid 3.7 yards per play.

They increased their play-clock seconds remaining average (from 28th to 14th) and used more no-huddle (10%); although, Russell Wilson’s four completions from the hurry-up all went to Melvin Gordon for seven total yards. Denver’s games still average the second-fewest total points (26.3) and fifth-fewest combined plays (119.7).

Their pass coverage has been outstanding, as Denver grades fourth best in pass defense DVOA but 20th in PFFs run defense. One would think opponents have noticed passing against the Broncos is the steeper climb.

Josh McDaniels is off to a disastrous start with the Raiders, dropping three consecutive one-score games. Las Vegas’s pass rate remains above average, but there’s a reasonable chance they deploy a run-heavier approach on Sunday. Las Vegas is dead last in rushing attempts, despite a top-12 yards-per-carry average. They’re running the 23rd-most plays per game and rank 23rd in time of possession, while their defense is bottom 12 in scoring, points per snap, and yards per play allowed.

The Raiders’ rushing grade ranks ninth, while they grade 24th in passing. Derek Carr is PFF’s 25th-graded passer.

Expecting them to go all-in with a ground-and-pound approach is unrealistic, as their most lethal weapons are in the passing game. Yet, with Las Vegas already operating slowly, averaging the third-fewest seconds remaining on the play clock, and producing games that average the ninth-fewest combined snaps, even a moderate pivot toward the run would cause a slower and lower-scoring affair with Denver.

Green Bay Packers Team Total Over/Under 25.5

The Packers are averaging 16 points per game thus far in 2022 and remain in the league’s bottom tier of play volume.

Their games yield the league’s fewest combined snaps (116.3), producing the fourth-fewest total points (31). Only the Dolphins average fewer seconds remaining on the play clock per-play than the Packers in 2022.

Green Bay had the ninth-highest run rate on first down in Week 3, despite averaging only 1.9 yards per carry on those handoffs. Opponents are handing off against the Packers’ second-worst-graded run defense at the third-highest rate (49%).

The Patriots deploying a backup-up quarterback in this game will surely follow this path of slow gameplay and an emphasis on running the football.

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Jeffrey Schreiber Avatar
Written by
Jeffrey Schreiber

Jeffrey Schreiber is a sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media. Jeff is recent college graduate with a background in finance and analytics. His goal is to provide readers with data and information behind the "why" to make a bet. His most memorable betting moment came during the divisional round of the 2022 NFL playoffs when he turned $37 in same-game parlay bets into $25,000.

View all posts by Jeffrey Schreiber