NFL Survivor Week 9 Picks, Win Probability Tool: New Orleans Saints Marching On?
With NFL survivor pools reaching the endgame, TheLines.com’s Pro Football Survivor contest has 24 entries remaining (pending MNF) after starting with nearly 2,000 in the $10,000 pool. Let’s explore some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 9 picks. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 9 odds.
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NFL Survivor Week 8 Recap
After a couple of weeks of rollover, more blood was finally spilled in survivor pools this week.
The Ravens probably did most of the damage, along with a bit from the Jets and Dolphins. Baltimore stumbled on the road as a big favorite against the division-rival Browns. The Dolphins hadn’t been on the radar essentially all season, so they might have made for an attractive candidate to those who had already used the best teams.
NFL Survivor Week 9: Top Projected Win Percentages
Here are some NFL Survivor picks reminders:
- You must plan for the long term.
- You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
- Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
- Avoiding the week’s top pick gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.
Team | ML | Implied Win% | Opp. | Popularity |
---|---|---|---|---|
Ravens | -450 | ~78.6% | vs. DEN | Subscribe |
Chiefs | -400 | ~78.3% | vs. TB | Subscribe |
Bengals | -375 | ~76.8% | vs. LV | Subscribe |
Eagles | -325 | ~74.4% | vs. JAC | Subscribe |
Vikings | -290 | ~72.8% | vs. IND | Subscribe |
Saints | -290 | ~72.8% | @ CAR | Subscribe |
NFL Survivor Week 9 Picks: The Obvious Chalk
Most people have probably already used the Bengals during their 3-1 stretch, during which they won all three games as solid favorites. Those who haven’t used the Bengals will likely have them circled here. They get the Raiders at home, and Cincinnati won’t be in play again until Week 15 (@ TEN). If your pool is in the endgame, that isn’t a week you have to worry about.
Baltimore is in a similar spot. The Ravens play the Giants on the road in Week 15 and have many closely lined games prior. Again, many have probably already used the Ravens. They’ll provide a stern test to answer the question as to whether the Broncos are for real.
The most widely available big favorite by far should be the Vikings. They have played quite a difficult schedule, and things are finally lightening up. PoolGenius has Week 9 hosting the Colts as their easiest remaining game, although Week 11 (@ TEN) and Week 13 (vs. ARI) are close.
Shane Steichen has shown he can magic up enough offense to keep a game close despite Anthony Richardson’s shortcomings as a passer. The matchup certainly looks good for Minnesota, and it comes in off the mini-bye, but it might be worth pivoting here if it looks like your pool will be overweight on Vikings.
New Orleans will also be very popular. The Saints get the Carolina free space this week and may carry the most ownership in some pools. Derek Carr is supposed to return, and Bryce Young will probably pilot the Panthers’ offense again after leading a few decent drives (progress!). The Saints probably won’t be in play for the rest of the season.
Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites
If you haven’t used the Bills, this week might be the time. Miami no longer represents a free win. Tua Tagovailoa returned and performed credibly, but the defense couldn’t muster a stop in the Week 8 loss. It’ll be a frisky opponent now.
Still, the Bills’ schedule is a bear in the coming weeks. It consists of road games and/or games against Super Bowl contenders. This is the last truly easy one until Week 16 (vs. NE).
This might be the last chance to use Washington. It’s probably either now or Week 13 (vs. TEN).
However, the Commanders have a few things going against them. First, divisional road games are usually bear traps. Ask the Ravens about that. Second, Jayden Daniels didn’t look 100% healthy in the miracle win over the Bears. He had to get retaped in the middle of the game, and the offense stalled out repeatedly for field goals.
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One Sneaky, Contrarian Option For NFL Survivor Week 9 Picks
This is a tough one to type out, but the Tennessee Titans could be an option for those who need to dig deep this week. They play the Patriots at home, so there isn’t a much better situation besides hosting the Panthers.
And with QB Drake Maye likely out, the lower-ceiling offense helmed by Jacoby Brissett returns. That should make for an enticing situation for a pretty solid Tennessee defense.
Still, this is the Titans we are talking about. They are 1-6 with one of the worst offenses in the league. It doesn’t matter who they play. If you click on them, you’re accepting a high chance of busting out. I’m only typing these sentences because they fit the bill for this section in theory.
My Favorite NFL Survivor Week 9 Picks
I would reluctantly try to avoid the Saints here if they’re widely available in your pool. There is no reason to expect the Carolina Panthers to win a football game. But at the end of the day, it’s still a divisional road game, and the Saints are still one hard hit on Derek Carr away from a replacement-level offense.
They seem like a layup at reduced ownership if you haven’t used the Ravens. I don’t mind the Vikings either, as I think their defense will get back on track. I would just be worried about popularity in some spots.
Good luck with NFL Survivor Week 9 picks.
Compare NFL Moneyline Odds
The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.
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