NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 9 Win Probabilities Tool
NFL Survivor picks have become one of the most popular gambling options for fans in recent years. Nationally recognized brands post contests with millions of dollars in prizes. DraftKings is one of the sports betting sites that offers pools as well throughout the season, not just before Week 1. Sharps and newbies alike take their shots and hope to get lucky. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options and teams most likely to win. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 9 plays, which feature one of the toughest slates of the year, as many of the best teams have tough matchups or byes. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 9 odds.
In addition to our Win Probabilities Tool, PoolGenius provides beneficial data like team popularity, Expected Value for that week, and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Get a 3-day trial and discounts on a yearly subscription. Click PLAY NOW in the banner below to get started.
NFL Survivor Week 8 Recap
Unless the Lions lose on MNF, expect this to end up as a rollover week in NFL survivor contests. All of the big favorites besides the Chiefs already won, with the Chargers and Ravens providing zero sweat. And the Chiefs were likely already used by most entries that made it this far.
NFL Survivor Week 9 figures to be one of the most interesting of the season. The Browns will undoubtedly carry a ton of ownership, serving as the Week 9 version of Week 7 Seattle (home against Arizona with no other big favorites on the card). Can they cruise like the Seahawks did, or will this bottleneck prove more punishing?
Here are some survivor reminders:
- You must plan for the long term.
- You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
- Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
- Avoiding the top pick of the week gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.
NFL Survivor Week 9: Projected Win Percentages
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The Obvious Chalk
This week features two clear-cut mega-chalk options: Cleveland and New Orleans.
Arizona showed some fight in its Week 8 loss to Baltimore but remains a defensive sieve. However, Cleveland’s offense has a marked step down at QB with PJ Walker, compared not only to Deshaun Watson but also to Seattle and L.A. teams that carried survivor entries through to another week. Walker brings a heap of added volatility in the form of turnover-worthy plays, particularly with Cleveland’s rushing offense an injury-riddled mess of random running backs.
Are there better spots to use Cleveland down the road? Home games against Chicago and New York Jets exist later in the season. If Watson is healthy and performing, those lines won’t be far from this one.
New Orleans has two beautiful spots hosting Carolina and New York Giants Weeks 14 and 15. But, many may find it to pass up fading Tyson Bagent after he looked utterly inept on Sunday Night Football. The Bears stink, and the Saints appear to be finding their stride after the offense thoroughly cooked the Colts.
Ultimately, the Saints do look to be in a slightly better position than the Browns. But how you approach these two teams depends heavily on what the rest of your contest does. Try to pick whichever side feels less popular.
Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites
Baltimore makes for an OK pivot from the top two. They still have home games remaining against Pittsburgh (though that’s Week 18), Cleveland, and the L.A. Rams, though. Geno Smith can also perform at a high level, particularly when given time in the pocket, so watch for Seattle’s ongoing offensive line injury issues to see if they still have a shortfall.
Quarterback issues color the other two games that fit the bill here.
If you didn’t use Atlanta in Week 1, now looks like a great time. They get a home game against a Vikings team featuring an as-yet-unknown starting QB after Kirk Cousins went down for the season. Jaren Hall, a fifth-round rookie, entered in relief of Cousins and promptly turned the ball over. He then led a six-play, 23-yard drive that ended in a punt.
The team may sign a veteran, or they may activate Nick Mullens from IR. Overall, this looks like a brutal spot for the Vikings offense, facing a capable Falcons D and scrambling to get a new QB up to speed, at best.
The Raiders also face a Giants team with a giant question mark at QB. In this case, however, good news may be coming for the Raiders’ opponent. It sounds like Daniel Jones is expected to practice this week. Keep an eye on that situation. If third-stringer Tommy DeVito is pressed back into service, this could be ugly. Las Vegas has little to no future value.
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Two Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 9
Pittsburgh plays host to the Titans in Thursday Night Football odds. Whether Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett starts probably doesn’t make a material difference.
The important thing here is Will Levis prepped for his debut in an ideal situation, getting a bye, so he had two weeks to get ready. This is the total opposite scenario. He has a short week to prepare for a good defense looking to bounce back at home. Expect a much uglier performance and a Steelers win.
Note that Pittsburgh does host Arizona and New England in Weeks 13 and 14, however.
If you have the stomach to need a win from Gardner Mishew on the road, you can consider the Colts. The Panthers have played much better football the past couple of weeks, though, and Minshew is not a safe bet against anyone.
Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 9.
Compare NFL MoneylIne Odds
The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.
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