NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 9 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on October 31, 2022
NFL survivor week 9

After several bloody weeks, the chalk basically all came home in Week 8. Although the Falcons certainly made some people sweat. Almost everyone’s equity holds, and it’s onto NFL survivor Week 9 for the lucky few left.

If you are still alive, our congratulations. Your NFL survivor pool should be close to the endgame at this point. Each week, you must try to get inside the heads of your opponents. Which sides do they have available and which ways will they gravitate? One good week can win you the pool now, so be extra diligent.

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Editor’s Note

NFL Survivor Week 9: The Obvious Chalk

Moneylines below from Caesars Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid as of Nov. 1.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Eagles-800~84%@ HOU17.9
Bills-650~83%@ NYJ12.8
Chiefs-600~82%vs. TEN23.6
Bengals-420~77%vs. CAR17.6

The usual suspects are all at the top of the moneyline board this week, favored big over mostly bad opposition. However, each of the Chiefs, Bills and Eagles all possess tons of future value, and all have likely been heavily used by anyone making it this far in survivor.

Although they’re huge favorites per usual, the Bills would seem to be in the most danger of the three. They face a divisional opponent on the road, and the Jets have played better football of late than the Titans and Texans. Still, all three of these options should be pretty safe.

Cincinnati stands apart here because their schedule gets fairly tough down the stretch. The Bengals won’t be favored this big the rest of the season in all likelihood. The Panthers have shown signs of life the past couple of weeks. But, it’s still PJ Walker on the road against a good defense (sixth in EPA/play allowed). If you still have Cincy in the bag, now’s the time. Of course, all this is pending Monday Night Football against the Browns. Make sure they don’t sustain any further major injuries after losing Ja’Marr Chase for the time being.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Patriots-250~69%vs. IND8.2
Dolphins-210~65%@ CHI5.9

Week 9 looks rosier than expected for the Patriots. They were always likely to be favored against the Colts but getting Sam Ehlinger at home is something like a dream situation for a mid-tier survivor option. Since the Pats lost in one of their biggest favored spots against the Bears already, many survivor players remaining probably haven’t used them.

Now, Ehlinger didn’t embarrass himself in his first start of the year as he managed a 67 QBR and had his team leading in the fourth quarter. The Patriots do present a stiffer challenge since they’re stronger against the pass than the Commanders, though.

If you don’t fire New England now, the only other remotely appealing spot looks like hosting the Jets in Week 11.

Be cautious if considering the Dolphins. They get Houston at home in Week 12. But more importantly, some awful weather is in the early forecast, which calls for 20 mph winds and rain. That could severely hamper a pass-happy Dolphins attack and increase the utility of the QB run game. Justin Fields has shined there in recent games when able to break contain, and the Dolphins have a bottom-five pressure rate.

One Sneaky, Contrarian Option For NFL Survivor Week 9

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Chargers-165~60%@ ATL1.6

If you didn’t use the Chargers when they faced the Texans or Broncos, this might actually represent the best chance to use them, crazy as that sounds. They might be slightly bigger favored hosting the Titans in Week 15, but that’s about it. They come off the bye and play a Falcons team with a banged up secondary.

The Chargers still can’t stop anyone on the ground, which bodes ill against a run-heavy Falcons offense. But, if you’ve cleared out the top options, there are worse spots than this one.

Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 9.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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