NFL Survivor Week 8 Picks, Win Probability Tool: Lions A Chalky Candidate
With NFL survivor pools reaching the endgame, TheLines.com’s Pro Football Survivor contest has 24 entries remaining (pending MNF) after starting with nearly 2,000 in the $10,000 pool. Let’s explore some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 8 picks. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 8 odds.
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NFL Survivor Week 7 Recap
It was another rollover week, the second straight, as all big favorites won. Hardly anyone is alive in survivor busted unless the Ravens fall on the road in Tampa Bay tonight. There were a couple of minor sweats with the Rams, Jaguars, and Bills, but most of the favorites cruised home in Week 7.
NFL Survivor Week 8: Top Projected Win Percentages
Here are some NFL Survivor picks reminders:
- You must plan for the long term.
- You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
- Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
- Avoiding the week’s top pick gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.
| Team | ML | Implied Win% | Opp. | Popularity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | -670 | ~83.7% | vs. TEN | Subscribe |
| Chiefs | -560 | ~81.5% | @ LV | Subscribe |
| Ravens | -550 | ~81.2% | @ CLE | Subscribe |
| Broncos | -390 | ~76.5% | vs. CAR | Subscribe |
| Chargers | -375 | ~76% | vs. NO | Subscribe |
NFL Survivor Week 8 Picks: The Obvious Chalk
There are three huge favorites this week that all look like they have layups ahead.
The Lions host the Titans, who may or may not be quarterbacked by Will Levis. Does it matter, though? This Lions offense is a truck, and Detroit has the least appeal in terms of future schedule compared to Kansas City and Baltimore. It’s also at home and, therefore, slightly less likely to sleepwalk.
In most survivor pools, expect the Lions to be the chalk if widely available.
Baltimore looks like they’ll be facing backup QB Jameis Winston, but he could be an upgrade on Deshaun Watson. Winston, however, did not look good in limited action the past two years (6-9 TD-INT). The Ravens get the Broncos at home in Week 9, which is slightly more appealing than a road divisional game.
The Chiefs might have the most future value of any team. They still have games against Carolina and Denver, are at home against these same Raiders, and have a road date with Cleveland.
The Raiders are a mess, and the Chiefs should be motivated after last year’s Christmas shellacking and some offseason trash talk from Las Vegas. They’re probably available in many pools after a fairly tough early schedule. Use them if you expect Detroit and Baltimore to be popular in your pool.
Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites
Denver could be a popular side in bigger pools that still have several weeks to go. They get to host Carolina, and PoolGenius only projects them as decent favorites one more time (Week 13 vs. CLE).
Somehow, the Panthers may hit a new low in Week 7, getting whitewashed by Washington with a cold Marcus Mariota coming off the bench for almost the entire game. Even Denver’s weak offense can move the ball in this matchup, and its defense should feast.
The Chargers and the Jets probably merit equally long looks.
L.A. does get Tennessee at home in Week 10. But PoolGenius likes this spot slightly more. Spencer Rattler and the New Orleans offense were non-functional on Thursday night against the Broncos, and the Chargers bring a similar defense-and-ball-security ethos. Unless Derek Carr quickly recovers and returns, this looks like a great spot for the Chargers where few will play them. Remember that they were chalk the week they played Carolina, and there are a lot of bigger favorites this week.
Is it too early for the term must-win? Sitting at 2-5, the Jets’ season might be meaningfully over if they lost this road game in New England. They had already crushed the Patriots, but that was facing a much different QB in Jacoby Brissett.
It’s difficult to trust a mediocre team on the road, but PoolGenius thinks this is the best spot (quite a bit) to play the Jets for the rest of the season. If you’re in a huge pool and think you must aim for the end, then the Jets should be considered.
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Two Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 8 Picks
Houston gets a home game against Indianapolis, which again looked completely lost on offense with Anthony Richardson at the helm in Week 7. Divisional games can be tough to predict, but the Texans won’t have any better spots besides Week 12 (vs. TEN), and there are a couple of other huge favorites that week.
Pittsburgh also merits a look. Russell Wilson looked fairly decent on Sunday night, especially given the quality of the Jets’ pass defense. Meanwhile, the Giants’ offense completely fell apart without LT Andrew Thomas. Best of luck to them blocking this Steelers rush.
If you don’t use the Steelers now, you’re probably looking at Week 14 vs. the Browns.
My Favorite NFL Survivor Week 8 Picks
The Chargers make the most sense this week if they were widely used in your pool. I like the home matchup with a Saints team that looked like it might have quit in Week 7 and has no receivers or quarterback left. Given that the huge favorites at the top of the board will probably soak up many picks, you should get L.A. at low ownership.
I also like a play on Pittsburgh. New York’s offense looks non-functional without Thomas. The Steelers have a top corner to match up with Malik Nabers, and the pass rush to expose this line. Again, I don’t foresee a lot of ownership.
Good luck with NFL Survivor Week 8 picks.
Compare NFL Moneyline Odds
The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.
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