NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 8 Win Probabilities Tool
NFL Survivor picks have become one of the most popular gambling options for fans in recent years. Nationally recognized brands post contests with millions of dollars in prizes. DraftKings is one of the sports betting sites that offers pools as well throughout the season, not just before Week 1. Sharps and newbies alike take their shots and hope to get lucky. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options and teams most likely to win. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 8 plays, which feature a bunch of big favorites but also some very interesting dark horse options. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 8 odds.
In addition to our Win Probabilities Tool, PoolGenius provides extremely useful data like team popularity, Expected Value for that week, and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Get a 3-day trial and discounts on a yearly subscription. Click PLAY NOW in the banner below to get started.
NFL Survivor Week 7 Recap
In many pools, Week 7 was likely a pretty boring one. More than 50%, if not 60%, of contestants in many pools selected the Seahawks and they had received a pretty sweat-free, ugly win. However, the week wasn’t without its carnage as the Bills, Rams, Raiders, and Buccaneers chopped many entrants (more than 20% in the big Circa contest). Then again, if you entrusted your survivor entry to Brian Hoyer on the road, you probably had it coming.
NFL survivor Week 8 figures to feature more diverse ownership shares as plenty of big favorites are on the card.
Here are some survivor reminders:
- You must plan for the long term.
- You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
- Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
- Avoiding the top pick of the week gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.
NFL Survivor Week 8: Projected Win Percentages
| Team | ML | Implied Win% | Opp. | Pick% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | -500 | ~80% | vs. NE | Subscribe |
| Chargers | -450 | ~79% | vs. CHI | Subscribe |
| Chiefs | -400 | ~77% | @ DEN | Subscribe |
| Ravens | -400 | ~76% | @ ARI | Subscribe |
| Bills | -375 | ~76% | vs. TB | Subscribe |
| Lions | -375 | ~76% | vs. LV | Subscribe |
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The Obvious Chalk
Miami and Baltimore are the two biggest favorites and seem like pretty safe bets. Arizona has reverted to the doormat that was expected. And while New England put together a great Week 7 effort, the team has looked lifeless outside of that. Miami also dominated the prior matchup despite only winning by seven. New England’s mediocre pressure rate should be just what the doctor ordered to get the Fins back on track.
A more widely available play on most survivor cards is likely the LA Chargers. They have a dream bounce-back scenario here at home against a very bad Bears team that just logged a win in a battle of backup QBs. Tyson Bagent on the road against a team with a pulse should look much different than facing the Brian Hoyer-led Raiders at home. PoolGenius doesn’t currently project the Chargers as this strong of favorites for the rest of the season.
Detroit also has an appealing situation at home hosting those same Raiders. Jimmy Garoppolo should return, but who knows how long he will last out there. But Detroit also has home games against the Bears and Packers in Weeks 11 and 12, respectively. The latter looks particularly important for players in the Circa contest since it’s part of the Thanksgiving slate.
Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites
None of the medium favorites look like great survivor plays this week.
San Francisco has a short week and faces Cincinnati coming off their bye. Additionally, an extra week of rest could possibly move Joe Burrow closer to looking like his old self. Survivor players should monitor that situation from afar rather than diving in.
Philadelphia has a divisional road game against a Washington team that has been oddly effective against Jalen Hurts the past couple of seasons. The Commanders beat the Eagles by double digits last season and then took them to overtime in the first meeting this year. And divisional road favorites, in general, are best avoided.
However, do note that the Eagles’ hellish upcoming schedule (they won’t be significant favorites again until Week 16) means that those in smaller pools must use them now or possibly lose them.
Perhaps of most interest is Dallas. The Cowboys have dominated against teams they can overwhelm up front. And the Rams have repeatedly shown their offensive line will hold them back against strong pass rushes. Best of luck to that unit dealing with Micah Parsons.
Dallas does have potential buy spots in Weeks 10 through 12 as well, though, highlighted by Week 10 at home against New York Giants.
- Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord with more than 4,000 community members and our staff sharing betting ideas every day. Go to the #roles server to get push notifications to the Discord app from TheLines.com staff when they lock in a bet.
Two Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 8
Those who have used the best teams or prefer to take a contrarian approach this week have a couple of intriguing options.
The Jets have a fake road game against the Giants, and they come off the bye as well.
At this juncture, it’s unknown who will draw the start at QB for the Giants, but any sniff of Daniel Jones should make this an even more interesting play. Tyrod Taylor has the offense looking significantly better than Jones has at any stretch this year, aside from a few second-half drives against Arizona.
The Jets have essentially no future value, as the most difficult part of their schedule is coming up.
Houston also finds itself in a rare road favorite spot. Carolina looks exceedingly beatable. However, note that they host Arizona in Week 11.
Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 8.
Compare NFL MoneylIne Odds
The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.
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