NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 8 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on October 24, 2022
NFL survivor Week 8

It was yet another tough week in survivor as the Buccaneers, one of the top chalk plays of the week, fell in shocking fashion to the lowly Panthers. About 20% of the Circa field busted, and tons of survivor entries remain at risk with the Patriots playing on Monday Night Football. Roughly 30% were eliminated from those remaining at DraftKings, about the same percentage booted from ESPN’s Eliminator Challenge. Onto NFL survivor Week 8 for the lucky few left.

If you are still alive, our congratulations. Your NFL survivor pool should be close to the endgame at this point. Each week, you must try to get inside the heads of your opponents. Which sides do they have available and which ways will they gravitate? One good week can win you the pool now, so be extra diligent.

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Editor’s Note

NFL Survivor Week 8: The Obvious Chalk

Moneylines below from Caesars Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid as of Oct. 25.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Bills-550~81%vs. GB13
Eagles-550~81%vs. PIT27
Cowboys-480~79%vs. CHI29.4

Do you still have the Dallas Cowboys available? For most people, the answer to that question is probably yes. The Cowboys have not had many large favorite spots until this past week, and even then, many may have gone in a different direction, particularly in Circa where Thanksgiving looms.

If you do have the Cowboys, they hold considerably less future value than the Bills and Eagles. Those teams have cakewalk schedules and are projected to be large favorites nearly every week.

Dallas has a good spot hosting Houston in Week 14. But other than that, there isn’t much to consider aside from what your plan is for Thanksgiving in the Circa pool. Others should probably give the Cowboys a hard look hosting a bad Bears team traveling on a short week.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Falcons-278~70%vs. CAR4
Colts-210~65%vs. WAS1.4
Vikings-195~63%vs. ARI2.3
Jaguars-190~63%vs. DEN0.7

This is an interesting group. Each has its own merits and each deserves real consideration for your survivor plans this week if you’re avoiding the top plays or don’t have them available.

Let’s start at the top. Atlanta had a tough game in Week 7. But if they can get their defense healthy again, they get to face PJ Walker at home coming off what will almost certainly be his best game of the season. Will they be favored this big again? Not likely aside from maybe hosting the Bears in Week 11.

The Colts also get to face a backup QB at home. In their case, it will be Taylor Heinicke leading the Commanders. Heinicke did not play particularly well in his first start of the year despite the win. The problem here is the inherent variance that comes with backing Matt Ryan. The veteran leads the NFL in turnover-worthy plays according to PFF. In any case, if you must use the Colts, Week 12 hosting a disastrous Steelers offense looks potentially a little better. (Editor’s note: the Colts announced Sam Ehlinger will start in Week 8).

Yet again, we may watch a backup quarterback when the Broncos head to London to play the Jaguars. Are you sensing a theme? Brett Rypien looked untenable as a starter and there’s no other place to use the Jags. Use ’em here or lose ’em barring an opposing QB injury down the line.

The Vikings are probably the least attractive of this group. They do come off the bye but the Cardinals get extra rest as well. This profiles as a high-scoring shootout. And the Vikings actually have some decent spots later. They’re favored in most of their remaining games, albeit not by a ton.

One Sneaky, Contrarian Option For NFL Survivor Week 8

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Seahawks-155~58%vs. NYG0.6

The Seahawks have played some tremendous football thus far, obviously led by Geno Smith’s out of nowhere season. But should you really trust your survivor entry to them against the white-hot Giants?

Probably not. But if you want to, they actually look like a pretty intriguing option in Week 14 hosting the Panthers.

As for this week, absolutely nobody will be on them. And you can do worse than a top-five QB (what else can you say at least this season?) at home against a Giants bunch due for a fall.

Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 8.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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