NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 8 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on October 31, 2021

Survivor pools have become one of the most popular gambling options for NFL fans in recent years. Big brands like DraftKings and Circa are among those offering monster prizes in 2021. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL survivor Week 8 plays.

Remember that you must plan for the long term, and you must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.

Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value. Plus, avoiding the top pick of the week gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.

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NFL Survivor Week 8: The Four Big Favorites

Moneylines below from DraftKings Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid. Note that pick percentages are not available early Monday and will be added to this piece at a later time.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Rams-900~86%@ HOU9.7
Bills-850~86%vs. MIA15.3
Chiefs-475~79%vs. NYG20.1
Bengals-400~76%@ NYJ43.6

Another NFL week, another round of free spaces in Week 7. However, this week looks to be much tougher overall. Even the biggest favorites aren’t quite on the level of last week’s chalk. A clear cut four-team top tier does exist.

The days of getting free wins against the Texans may finally have ended. Reports say Tyrod Taylor may finally return to quarterback the team. Taylor may not light the world on fire, but the team played vastly more competitive football with him. Davis Mills has performed as poorly as his biggest draft skeptics expected.

However, the Rams will probably not be on upset alert after their near-miss against the Lions. Detroit caught them off guard with several trick plays, and while the Texans have been known to spring a flea flicker here or there, they just haven’t shown the type of aggression needed to amp up variance and pull a huge upset.

If you still have the Rams left, it looks like a great spot to use them given they only have one more layup left, Week 13 against Jacksonville.

Patrick Mahomes ate a scary knee to the head against the Titans but looks set to start in Week 8 against the Giants. As long as he does start, this should be a pretty easy win for the Chiefs at home.

Say what you want about KC but they can still move the ball, Titans performance aside. When the Giants faced high-volume, high-efficiency passing offenses in Dallas and LA Rams, they allowed 9.0 and 7.3 yards per pass, respectively. Sam Darnold, this will not be.

And KC has shaky-at-best value the rest of the way unless a lot of things get cleaned up in a hurry.

Welcome to the world of being big favorites, Cincinnati.

While this line might look pretty high at first glance, it’s probably justified. Consider this: the Jets had the league’s worst offense by both EPA and DVOA. That was before they replaced blue chip arm Zach Wilson with 2018 fifth-round pick Mike White, who threw his first 32 NFL passes against New England.

The Medium Favorites

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Cardinals-265~70%vs. GB0.3
Chargers-235~67%vs. NE2.4
Buccaneers-210~64%@ NO0.4

Beyond the top four, things start to get hairy in a hurry. The rest of the board is basically a jumble of small favorites that don’t have any special level of attractiveness. The market favors Tampa Bay and LA Chargers the most of the bunch, so we’ll highlight them.

Tampa Bay has many weeks ahead where they’re a better option. On the road against a divisional rival is not usually an attractive spot.

One thing they do have going is New Orleans comes off a short week following Monday Night Football.

The Chargers possess a little more intrigue as a potential pivot from the top chalk. They are bigger favorites than the Bucs, they play at home, and they face slightly weaker opposition in New England. Furthermore, the Chargers come off a bye, so they’re well-rested.

Just keep in mind the Chargers’ style of play produces more variance than that of a “normal” team. They frequently go for it on fourth down, which is generally a positive, but on the wrong day when they repeatedly fail, they could find themselves quickly buried as they did against Baltimore.

While this article was being written, another option popped up, one that few survivor players would have likely considered: Arizona. A potential COVID outbreak has already claimed Green Bay’s defensive coordinator and potentially superstar WR Davante Adams.

That still doesn’t feel like a comfortable spot to click against Aaron Rodgers when so many easier options exist, but keep tabs on this situation. If a bunch more Packers are forced into quarantine, it could get more attractive.

One Sneaky, Contrarian Option for NFL Survivor Week 8

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Eagles-170~61%@ DET1.2

One final, very sneaky option for those committed to staying off the chalk: the Philadelphia Eagles. Why would you want to pick an under-.500 team with a negative point differential on the road?

Well, they do play the Detroit Lions. As bad as Philly is, they have a better offense and a better defense than Detroit, and it isn’t particularly close.

And consider how the Lions have performed this year. It’s largely anecdotal and not necessarily predictive, but they’ve played much better as large underdogs than short ones. When counted out, they gave the Ravens, Vikings and Rams legitimate scares. In their two closest games of the season by market expectation, the Bears and Bengals outscored them by a combined 33 in very easy wins.

They Lions are once again short underdogs and that’s been the best time to fade them this year. Dan Campbell may coach a little more conventionally in these spots, which could hurt his team.

The Eagles figure to be underdogs in the majority of their remaining games, so this might be a good spot to get them through in a tough week.

Good luck in NFL survivor Week 8.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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