NFL Survivor Week 7 Picks, Win Probability Tool

NFL Survivor pools are already reaching the endgame. This week, TheLines.com’s Pro Football Survivor contest has 25 entries remaining after starting with close to 2,000 in the $10,000 pool. Let’s explore some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 7 picks, which feature the Bills and Commanders as the likely chalk. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 7 odds.

In addition to our Win Probabilities Tool, PoolGenius provides beneficial data like team popularity, Expected Value for that week, and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Get a 3-day trial and discounts on a yearly subscription. Click PLAY NOW in the banner below to get started.

NFL Survivor Week 6 Recap

After weeks of chaos, Week 6 was notably tame. Favorites nearly swept the board, with the Colts the lone underdog taking an outright win. That means survivor leagues essentially rolled over to Week 7, with hardly anyone going bust. Just five entries in the big Circa contest fell.

NFL Survivor Week 7: Top Projected Win Percentages

Here are some NFL Survivor picks reminders:

• You must plan for the long term.
• You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
• Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
• Avoiding the week’s top pick gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.

Team	ML	Implied Win%	Opp.	Popularity
Bills	-450	~78.6%	vs. TEN	Subscribe
Commanders	-375	~76%	vs. CAR	Subscribe
Rams	-300	~71.8%	vs. LV	Subscribe
Jaguars	-250	~67.8%	vs. NE (London)	Subscribe
Bengals	-250	~67.8%	@ CLE	Subscribe

NFL Survivor Week 7 Picks: The Obvious Chalk

There are two teams bigger than touchdown favorites this week, but they have wildly diverging profiles heading into the rest of the season.

Buffalo comes off its ugly Monday night win with a layup of a home game against the Titans. Will Levis continues to give the ball away week after week, and the Bills look like they’ll be able to hammer basically any opponent with the run.

However, they still have some future value. They get Miami at home in Week 9 which should essentially be a free win unless Tua Tagovailoa is back in uniform. There’s been no indication when he’ll be ready to return, with the team only saying it does expect him back at some point.

Most of the rest of their value comes in the final three weeks, with two games against New England. Those in smaller pools won’t worry about that.

Carolina can’t stop anyone, so it certainly seems implausible they’ll be able to stop Washington’s high-flying offense. This is by far Washington’s easiest remaining game. The only other times they’ll likely be in consideration are Week 10 (vs. PIT) and Week 13 (vs. TEN).

More survivor players have probably used Buffalo than Washington, so check your pool’s availability here if you want to go chalk.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

Jacksonville is in a prime spot this week. They’re staying in London against a bad team traveling in (Patriots). Last year in the same spot, they beat a much tougher Bills team outright as underdogs. Buffalo looked lethargic in the first half before getting back in the game, something the Patriots seem unlikely to repeat.

The Jags may not be favored again until Week 17 (vs. TEN). If you want to pivot off the chalk or you don’t have the Bills and Commanders available, pinching your nose and taking the Jags may be the move.

The Rams could also prove fairly popular hosting the Raiders. Again, the big question remaining on their schedule is the availability of Tagoviloa in Week 10. Aside from that, they’ll be short favorites in New England in Week 11, but that’s an unappealing spot between the cross-country travel and a dome team playing in cold weather.

If you can stomach a road divisional game, the Bengals will play in Cleveland as decent favorites. Cincinnati should have a lot of availability for obvious reasons, but they also play the Raiders at home in Week 9. That’s more appealing than road divisional spots, without a doubt.

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One Sneaky, Contrarian Option For NFL Survivor Week 7 Picks

The Colts may be worth a look at home against the Dolphins.

It’s not an ideal spot with the opponent coming off a bye, especially so when the Dolphins could look a lot better after having a couple of more weeks to get Tyler Huntley up to speed on the system.

Still, the Dolphins checked in at 31st in TheLines’ NFL power rankings. This is just a really bad team unless and until Tagovailoa retakes the reins of the offense. And the Colts don’t look like they’ll be favored again until Week 13 (@ NE) or Week 16 (vs. TEN). You probably don’t need to dig this deep in a week with this many solid options, but the Colts are there if you do.

My Favorite NFL Survivor Week 7 Picks

It’s a tough week not to take the chalk with two good options and plenty of medium-tier favorites that could be popular. It’s going to be all about availability at the top. While the Titans and Panthers should both get rolled, they might still have frisky enough defense and offense, respectively, that you can hope for an upset.

Unfortunately, I do like the Jaguars here with their massive situational advantage against the Patriots. Drake Maye has given a bit of life to the New England offense, but they still mostly produced in garbage time against the Texans, so the Jags should be as safe as a team that stinks can be.

Good luck with NFL Survivor Week 7 picks.

Compare NFL Moneyline Odds

The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.

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