NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 7 Win Probabilities Tool

The chalk held on for dear life in Week 6 of NFL Survivor pools, with the big exception being the poor souls on the Eagles to win at the Jets. Despite going down 14-0 early, the Dolphins pulled away and won easily over the Panthers. On Sunday Night Football, the Bills offense was ugly but survived two redzone possessions by the Giants inside the five-yard line. The Rams dusted off the Cardinals with a big second half but did trail at the break. Less than 10% of entries nationwide were eliminated as we begin looking at more challenging NFL Week 7 odds. This week, TheLines.com will run through NFL Survivor Week 7 strategy, with the best options and teams most likely to win.

In addition, our friends at PoolGenius will provide their win probabilities tool with a free three-day trial with precious data for those trying to win NFL Survivor pools, like Expected Value for that week and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Click PLAY NOW in the banner below to get started.

NFL Survivor Week 7: PoolGenius Win Probabilities Tool

For even more NFL Survivor advice, click on the articles from our friends at PoolGenius below.

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The Obvious Chalk

Whereas there were several options last week with implied win probabilities higher than 80%, there are zero this week.

The Bills come the closest with a moneyline that converts to an expected chance of winning right at 80%. However, it may be hard for entries to have a ton of faith in Buffalo right now with how injured the defense is and how lackluster the offense looked Sunday night against the Giants. Mac Jones is approaching Zach Wilson levels of facepalm, but it’s still Bill Belichick at home.

The Seahawks are the most likely candidate as the most popular selection in NFL Survivor Week 7. Casual fans will probably forgive the Seattle loss at Cincinnati after Arizona looked terrible in the second half against Los Angeles. Box score scavengers will also see the Seahawks had four goal-to-go possessions and walked away with just three points. Seattle was extremely unlucky to lose this week. Now, the 12s return home against a bottom-three team in the NFL.

Numerically, the 49ers are also in that 70-80% win probability tier at Minnesota, with the Vikings against being without Justin Jefferson. However, some entries may have concerns, depending on the injury statuses of star RB Christian McCaffrey and WR Deebo Samuel. Brock Purdy had his worst game against a great defense in difficult wind and weather conditions, but Kirk Cousins and the Vikings offense did not inspire confidence against a below-average Chicago defense.

The only other team in NFL Survivor Week 7 with an implied win probability higher than 70% is the Chiefs, hosting the Chargers. Kansas City may be more than a four-point favorite in this game, but it’s still a divisional opponent that has played KC tough in the past. The Bolts may have lost five of their past six games to the Chiefs, but all five were by one possession. Going into Monday Night Football against the Cowboys, new LA offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has this offense ranking higher than the Chiefs in EPA and Success Rate.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorite

This is how vicious NFL Survivor Week 7 could be. Beyond the four teams above, the Rams are the only other favorite with a moneyline price shorter than -160. LA hosts the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Matthew Stafford has his breakfast club restored with Cooper Kupp back on the field, but this is still a 3-3 team, facing a Steelers bunch that is coming off the bye week. Pittsburgh’s offense has been primarily toothless, but the defense has wrecked two games to steal wins from the Browns and Ravens.

Would it shock anybody if the Rams lost to the Steelers?

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Two Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 7

The Lions are underdogs at the Ravens, but man, does Detroit look good. Detroit is one of the few teams in the league that are top eight in both offensive and defensive EPA. Meanwhile, the Ravens are leaving points on the board. Lamar Jackson’s crew ranks in the league’s bottom half in RZ offense over the past three weeks. As for the quarterbacks, Jared Goff is outproducing Lamar Jackson this season, ranking higher in EPA+CPOE composite. Most notably, Ben Johnson’s Detroit offense is producing more explosive plays than Todd Monken’s Baltimore offense, evidenced by Goff ranking top five in adjusted EPA, with Jackson just 15th.

The Jaguars would be my primary contrarian play this week, though, as long as the injury report is kind to Trevor Lawrence. He suffered a knee injury Week 6 but said he’s okay. Early-week line movement is showing support for Jacksonville at New Orleans, coming off a Pick to make the Jags a small road favorite against a Saints offense that does not rank inside the top 20 in EPA or Success Rate. More information then came out, pushing the line to Saints -3. You cannot pick Jags if Lawrence does not play.

Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 6.

Compare NFL MoneylIne Odds

The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.