NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 7 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on October 17, 2022
NFL survivor week 7

Anyone left out there? With the Chargers still pending, nearly 50% of the Circa field busted. The Buccaneers and Packers provided the bulk of the damage, with the 49ers and Ravens also wiping out large swaths of the contests. In the ESPN contest, less than 3% of the original 500,000+ remain. Onto NFL survivor Week 7 for the lucky few left.

If you are still alive, our congratulations. Moving forward, remember that you must plan for the long term, and you must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the NFL survivor pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.

Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value. Plus, avoiding the top pick of the week gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.

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Editor’s Note

NFL Survivor Week 7: The Obvious Chalk

Moneylines below from Caesars Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid as of Oct. 18.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Buccaneers-550~81%@ CAR25.6

Baker Mayfield may not be any great shakes but his absence and the Panthers‘ subsequent performance against the Rams on Sunday has created a clear short-term NFL survivor strategy. Fade Carolina. At least for this week, that creates a clear layup at the top of the board by clicking Bucs.

Just how bad did the Panthers offense perform? Well, they didn’t score a TD, for starters (their score came on a pick-six). They managed just 110 net passing yards on 4.8 YPA. Even that overstates things since it includes a 49-yard catch and run by Christian McCaffrey. The passing game simply has zero juice now.

Jacob Eason seems likely to draw the start this week after PJ Walker failed to get the offense moving in any meaningful way. He has thrown 10 career passes — and been picked twice — but may still represent an upgrade on Walker, who only had a job while playing for his now-departed college coach.

The Bucs had an ugly day of their own but it least came against a real NFL team with a real NFL QB. Most players still have the Bucs available as the only obvious spot to fire them that didn’t blow up came against the Falcons.

If you don’t or wish to let your leaguemates load up, it’s on to…

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Patriots-365~75%vs. CHI25.4
Dolphins-335~73%vs. PIT3.3
Cowboys-320~73%vs. DET13
Chargers-320~73%vs. SEA1.5
Raiders-320~73%vs. HOU15.3
Ravens-292~71%vs. CLE3.4
Bengals-267~70%vs. ATL4.5

With uncertain QB situations, the Dolphins and Cowboys look like higher variance plays. They’re not in especially exciting spots, particularly Dallas. They’ll play in a higher-scoring environment against a Lions team that may bring its full complement of weapons to bear. Detroit looked frisky with their offense healthy early on.

Two teams in this bunch check just about every box we look for in an NFL survivor Week 7 play.

The Patriots host the Bears, and this team suddenly looks like a survivor consideration. They’re humming with Bailey Zappe caretaking the offense and the running game and defense doing most of the heavy lifting. They don’t project as TD favorites the rest of the season. The only spot that comes close is hosting the Jets Week 11 but if the Jets continue to play well, that line could tighten.

Plus, you get the Monday Night Football hammer to sweat if you take the Pats.

The Raiders possess even lower future value. They may not lay more than a field goal the rest of the way. Hosting the Texans off the bye seems like the ideal time to take them.

Two Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 7

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Broncos-170~60%vs. NYJ1.1
Jaguars-165~59%vs. NYG0.5

A couple of short home favorites fit the bill if indeed you want to go off the beaten path this week. It’s probably not necessary with most leagues already hitting the endgame or close, and so many mid-tier options on the board. But if you insist on aggression you can consider the Jaguars or the Broncos.

In each case, you’re fading streaking New York teams that have gotten results that at least somewhat bely their performances. The Giants got smacked in terms of yards per play by the Ravens but took advantage of late Lamar Jackson turnovers. The Jets simply rode their running game and defense, but at some point, Zach Wilson is going to have to make some throws.

The Jaguars basically have zero future value, but the Broncos may actually deserve some consideration at Carolina in Week 12. So, the Jags make a little more sense in terms of pure future optionality.

Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 7.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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